Population declines have already been seen in large cities. Then the coronavirus was a hit

Some people are considering leaving the center of a crowded city in a remote suburb for a coronavirus pandemic. CNN’s Athena Jones reports.

This week a moving truck came to Rebecca Stevenswalter’s New York apartment.

But she wasn’t there to pack the boxes or oversee the crew.

In mid-March, a 39-year-old minister flew to New Mexico with her husband and two children. They left so suddenly that they had little time to prepare for the trip.

“I ran away,” she says. “Our apartment looked like a rapture … and we definitely had a conversation,” What if we didn’t get back? ” “

The streets of the city she loves, and many of the major cities throughout the United States, are ghostly empty because the pandemic keeps most of the country in a blockade.

It’s a chilling sign of the times and reminds me of a big question. Would some people choose to leave life in a big city after the pandemic passed?

The trend had already begun to appear in some parts of the country, even before the coronavirus hit.

Now the pandemic is changing the way we talk about living in a big city. And some experts say it may change who chooses to live in them.

Stevens Walter says her family has plans to return to New York. But others who recently left the city told CNN that they were not convinced.

“Without our existence and that career, it’s hard to think of living in New York. Broadway was closed in March.

“Before this, we weren’t the kind of people who wanted to live outside the city and commute. Will it be the same now?”

Governor of New York says density is the cause

When Broadway is closed, the restaurant is only opened for takeaways and many people are working from home — if they still have work — today the city that never sleeps is really dormant.

But that was not the case a few months before the coronavirus began to spread. Largest and densest city in America.

New York Soon became the epicenter of the country’s coronavirus outbreak, Spur Home orders from staff To prevent infection.

Although new coronavirus cases are reported daily in New York, Began to decrease, The death toll continues to increase. More than 12,000 deaths from coronavirus It has been confirmed in the city so far.

Governor Andrew Cuomo wasn’t cutting the word when he explained why the virus spread so quickly.

“Why New York? Why are these levels of infection seen? Well, why are cities across the country?” Said Cuomo. Last month’s news briefing.

“It’s very easy,” said the governor. “It’s about density. It’s about the number of people in a geographically narrow space that allow the virus to spread …. A dense environment is its feeding ground.”

He sees chaotic growth as a blessing of savings

On the other side of the country, says Joel Kotkin The deployment situation is significantly different.

recently Opinion written in Los Angeles TimesMr. Kotkin acknowledged the vast development of the city that slowed the spread of the coronavirus. Headline: “Angelenos likes to sprawl single households. Coronaviruses prove them right.”

Mr Kotkin, executive director of the Houston-based Urban Reform Institute, argues that the city is already in trouble. And he says that densely populated cities have a lot of opposition to them, especially in times of social distance.

“If people need to be 6 feet apart, how do you open an office with expensive real estate? If you have no social distance at all, how can you make your city depend on the subway?” He talks to CNN. “People will continue to move to the surrounding areas and smaller cities. Basically, they can move without boarding a (public) transit.”

The fashion has moved people before

Historically, epidemics have played a major role in shaping where and how people live in New York and other cities, said co-director of the Center for Public Health History and Ethics at Columbia University. .

For example, after the cholera epidemic struck the city in the 19th century, people began to move from Manhattan to other areas, if they could afford it.

“We start seeing some sort of segregation in suburban communities, depending on class and people movements,” he says. “You start seeing land marketing based on illness experience. You start seeing the land is actually being advertised as healthy or unhealthy.”

This is the pattern where Rosner is emerging again.

“Travel and travel from illness centers reflect such social prejudices. Somehow, we believe we must be safer to stay in the country,” he says. I will. “It reflects our attitude toward the urban environment and our fear of our neighbors. That is the sad reality of this fad.”

This economist says “density is not destiny”

Joe Cortright said that those who think it’s safer to live in a rural village “The Old” Nagaya “Theory of Public Health” —And I say it’s not true.

As director of The City Observatory, a think tank focused on data-driven analysis, he has been working on the numbers for weeks as the pandemic expands.

And Corwright says they’re making an important difference: “density” he claims, “not destiny.” Translation: There are many densely populated cities in the world that have never seen coronavirus cases rise like New York. Corlite refers to Tokyo, Taipei and Seoul. And then to Vancouver, One of the densest metropolitan cities in North America.

Also he says, Suburbs And rural Areas that were particularly damaged.

“Can you escape to avoid this problem? Looking around, it’s a pandemic. There is no place to go,” he says.

“I think that’s one of the lessons here. With information and smart policies, there’s no reason the city could be hit by nature.”

“Gen Z” plays an important role in what happens next

But even before the coronavirus hit, there were already signs that more people in the United States were moving to the suburbs.

After years of growth, New York City’s population began to gradually decline in 2017.

Chicago and Los Angeles have also seen population declines in recent years as economies pick up in the suburbs and elsewhere. Growth in other big cities is virtually stagnant.

“It’s not just New York,” says William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow of the Brookings Institution’s metropolitan policy program. “It’s a kind of softening of growth among cities across the country.”

Still, Frey says it’s too early to hit the city’s panic button.

New York repulsed after 9/11, Even after the 1918 flu pandemic.

“People have always returned to the city during some of the greatest disasters in our history …. the next year or two, the city’s population will not decline in the long run. I’m worried, “he says.

Frey says more people may actually move to cities after a pandemic if the recent past is any indication.

Shortly after the Great Recession, millennials gathered in cities to accelerate the era of growth and revitalization. And in the aftermath of this unfolding economic crisis, Frey says Generation Z can take a similar tack.

Members of that generation, Born 1997-2012Frey says the city has strong roots and is likely to be attracted to the city.

“If they follow the footsteps of millennials in the dim light as well, they can help boost the growth of the city-especially if the opportunity is exhausted elsewhere,” Frey writes. Recent analysis on Brookings website.

How Remote Work Reshapes the Market

Allison Bernstein says she’s already seeing a shift in another direction.

She called her family three times last year in search of lush meadows. Crowds have decreased, space has expanded, and quality of life has improved.

Bernstein’s company, the Suburban Jungle, helps urban dwellers move to the suburbs. And with the pandemic, more and more people are considering the move.

“People are scared, it’s not about being washed under the rug,” she says. “And I think people will really reevaluate the quality of life they are looking for, so I think we’ll see a big shift to lifestyle-rich cities like Austin and Nashville in South Florida. “

Moreover, another pre-pandemic trend is intensifying. Increased remote work.

Skyler Olsen, senior principal economist at Zillow, said this could play an even greater role in the upcoming housing market restructuring.

Already Millennials are increasingly turning to the suburbs, Small cities and places around because they were priced from purchases in big cities.

“People can make new and different decisions if they can offer another option like remote work,” she says. “Your work and your home were connected in such a way that we were all learning that they may not have to be.”

A group of moms are raising questions about moving

Lifelong New Yorker Chloe Joe Davis has never imagined leaving her beloved city.

Davis and her husband were already accustomed to working from home, but spent weeks cramped in a two-bedroom rental apartment on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

“I feel like I’ve experienced a monsoon every day,” she says.

“If we are here in New York, and why we are here, why we are willing to sacrifice the benefits of all the basic types of life that many have … art, It’s because of culture, diversity, friendships in the neighborhood, “she says. “And now, without it, what do we have? We are stacked in boxes.”

Davis says her family is trying to leave the density of New York City in suburban space. Already, prices for rentals outside the city are skyrocketing as demand increases, she says. But she knows they are lucky to even have the means to think of such a move.

The group of many mothers she attends on Facebook has led her to believe her that many New York mothers are in a similar position. The same three questions keep popping up, she says:

Who knows a good mover to move social distances?

Which do you like better?

Who Takes Over My Two-Bedroom Lease?

So many friends and neighbors left the city, at least temporarily.

“It’s just a mass escape,” she says.

However, Stevens Walter spoke to CNN over the phone from his New Mexico family-in-law, Includes herself-the people who can’t leave the city, and many who are determined to keep living there.

“I’m deeply homesick in New York. We live there for many reasons,” she says.

As an artist and musician, she and her husband were inspired there. And she says the city feels welcome to her multi-ethnic, multi-ethnic family.

“New York provides us with security that cannot go anywhere else,” she says.

For these and many other reasons, New York is always at home. But she’s embracing her new reality.

She knows that the city we are returning to is very different from the city we left.

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