Q & A: Nobel laureates say COVID-19 curves can naturally self-flatten

Daily sat down with Nobel Laureate and Professor of Structural Biology, Michael Levitt, to discuss his work on the trajectory of COVID-19 outbreaks around the world. Levit got a bad reputation Predict well Since the rate of death toll in China has slowed, he has been study Graph outbreaks in other countries and counties in the United States. Recently, Levitt and his research team Released Classification of 131 locations with over 50 deaths and 3000 cases. Identify where these areas are on the curve in terms of cases and deaths.

Stanford Daily [TSD]: Could you tell us about your research on the trajectory of the outbreak in China?

Michael Levitt [ML]: I started studying the outbreak in China around January 20th. Everyone should talk about exponentially growing viruses, and you should expect today’s deaths divided by yesterday’s deaths to be the same. However, looking at the outbreak in China, I noticed that the amount that was increasing was actually less in three to four consecutive days. I think it was 30% one day, 26% the next day, and 22% and 18%. “Wow, this is really going in the direction of not increasing,” I thought.

TSD: How did you predict when this data would peak?

ML: of [rate at which deaths had increased from the day before] Looked like [it] Fell straight down. Sure enough, the numbers soared, but every day there was a smaller than expected increase. From this you can get a pretty good idea of ​​when growth will stop, stop growing and start to slow down.

TSD: Can you tell me how you studied outbreaks in other countries?

ML: Well, following China, it was Korea, then Italy. And, surprisingly, other countries were actually very similar to China, despite China having a very tight social distance. Well, well, social distance may be very important. However, even without this, the virus seems to work to flatten the curve. The virus seems to have the unique property of growing slowly daily, rather than growing exponentially.

TSD: Why do you think coronaviruses have this tendency?

ML: Imagine that there was a confirmed case of COVID. Unknowingly, the case was filed and my friends, children, and people nearby were also infected. In other words, you can get infected on the first day, but you won’t find anyone susceptible to infection the next day. In some cases, the invisible cases are already infected, so the visible cases struggle to infect people. Since then, there have been many additional discoveries that perhaps there may also be innate immunity to the virus.

TSD: Do you describe this mechanism as a group that achieves herd immunity?

ML: You don’t actually have to infect everyone, depending on how fast the virus propagates. Some say 80% [of the population needs to develop antibodies]Some say 60%. I personally think it is less than 30%. And some people say we will never get the herd immune. I do not think so.

TSD: why not?

ML: There are probably 5 to 6 outbreaks of outbreaks, including the Diamond Princess cruise ships and the Italian regions. The ultimate death toll is 1/10 of the population. It can be said that each of these places was stopped because of its great social distance, or it could simply be said that it was stopped because no one was infected. In a few weeks you’ll find out the answer to this question what’s happening in Sweden.

TSD: Sweden?

ML: When Sweden stopped with about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, they found that they had reached herd immunity and did not have to carry out any kind of blockade. My feeling is that the immunity of the herd will probably stop. COVID is a serious, at least serious flu. But it is not going to destroy humanity as people have thought.

TSD: What is your forecast when the rest of the world will reach peak death toll?

ML: Something between 8 and 14 weeks. But even in places like Korea, where it peaked, they are still seeing death. Trying to predict the ultimate death is still very difficult.

TSD: What are your predictions about whether the fall quarter will take place on campus to end with a light question?

ML: It’s a matter of politics, it’s a matter of national politics. I’m sure I’m on campus this fall quarter. Santa Clara County, death is fluctuating, but it looks to me as it has peaked. Not bad I certainly hope that Stanford will open for the fall.

Contact Kate Selig at kselig ‘at’ stanford.edu.