Could there really be a hung parliament at the next UK general election? | conservative

Rishi Sunak has boldly claimed that the Tories' disastrous local election results prove the country is heading towards a hung parliament and a chaotic Labor-led coalition after the general election.

The Prime Minister said research by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggested that if Thursday's results were replicated in the general election, Labor would lack enough seats to win outright.

However, Sunak's problem with this particular theory is that the transition from local elections to general elections is quite difficult. Here we look at some of the key differences to consider in such predictions.

National Vote Share

Many polling experts are skeptical about the usefulness of extrapolating potential national results from local elections. This is not an estimate of the party's general election prospects. It's not even a poll. Rob Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, said it was an attempt to estimate what local residents' results would look like if everyone in Britain voted.

Where you vote one year is politically different from where you vote in the next local election. For example, this year's local council elections were disproportionately held in British cities outside London.

About half of the voters who will vote in a general election did not vote locally, and while it is difficult to know which way that vote will fall, national opinion polls, which generally put Labor 20 points ahead, are the best indicator of anything. If there was a general election tomorrow, this would have happened.

small party

All evidence suggests that people vote differently in local elections than in national polls, and are more likely to support smaller parties or independents in the former.

This time around 23% were involved in a political party other than Labour, the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. However, while independent candidates do well in local primaries, they rarely succeed in Westminster primaries.

The Liberal Democrats also tend to win more votes in local elections, this time taking 16% of the total vote, far exceeding their performance in national opinion polls.

The Granite City

Because last week's local elections were held only in England and Wales, Rallings and Thrashers' analysis assumed there would be no change to the results in Scotland.

At the last general election Labor won just one seat, and October's Rutherglen by-election doubled its total. But the party's fortunes in Scotland changed amid turmoil in the SNP, which elected its third leader in 14 months, and Tory turmoil in Westminster.

This time Labor is expected to win more of Scotland's 59 seats. Senior party figures believe they could win 20 or more seats. Rallings and Thrashers' analysis shows that while that alone would not make a big enough difference to secure an overall majority, the Scottish seat would certainly help Labor get closer to the 326 needed to win one seat.

Blackpool South by-election

The race where the national picture was more evident last Thursday was the Blackpool South by-election, the only parliamentary contest held on polling day.

Labor regained the seat with its third highest approval rating since World War II. It was also the fifth time last year that the Conservatives were directly defeated by Labor by more than 20% of the vote in a Westminster by-election.

The Tories came in second, beating Reform by 117 votes. Their vote share collapsed by more than 30 points, leaving Labor and Reform more or less evenly split and causing anxiety at Tory headquarters.

If the result is repeated nationally, the Blackpool South by-election will result in the Tories having fewer than 100 MPs after the general election.

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geography

In the case of Labor, local people were as concerned about where they got their votes as how many they got. The key test was how it would perform in a battlefield area.

The strategy of focusing resources on disadvantaged areas rather than trying to increase turnout in some high-turnout areas such as Liverpool, London and Manchester is likely to be repeated later this year.

Keir Starmers' party will be strengthened by a win in the East Midlands market, offering to win back seats including Derby North, Ashfield and Bolsover, and taking York and North Yorkshire in Sunak's backyard.

While the Tories Ben Houchen are holding on in the Tees Valley, a repeat of the 16.7% swing to Labor at the general election would see them take all five seats in the region, including Darlington, Hartlepool and Redcar.

In the final days of the campaign, Labor shifted additional resources from the Tees Valley to the West Midlands, which is full of target seats. It paid off when he beat Tories Andy Street by just over 1,500 votes in a shock victory.

Labor plans to target the south of England heavily in this election after winning council seats including Crawley, Swindon, Thurrock, Basildon, Southend and Rushmoor. These include the garrison town of Aldershot.

british reform

The reforms only emerged in one of six council wards last week, suggesting their influence in the general election could grow as party leader Richard Tice pledges to run a candidate in every constituency.

In the party's ward, Conservative support fell 19 percentage points, suggesting most votes will come from the Conservatives later this year. Labor saw a slight increase in voter turnout in reform-supported council wards.

The right-wing populist party failed to beat the Tories into second place in the Blackpool South by-election, and so far has not performed as well as Ukip has done in the past. But Tory fears over Nigel Farage's return to the political forefront could change that.

Union of Chaos

Rishi Sunak is trying to reposition the chaotic attack line coalition, one of the Conservatives' most successful political strategies of the past decade, which helped them secure a surprise majority at the 2015 election.

At the time, the Conservatives issued a scathing warning that Labor could strike a deal with the SNP to gain power, with an attack poster showing party leader Ed Miliband sitting in the top pocket of Alex Salmond, who was SNP leader until the Scottish independence referendum. .

At the time, opinion polls pointed to a hung National Assembly. This strategy appears to have persuaded some voters, particularly those in the so-called blue wall who previously supported the Lib Dems, to vote Tory.

But the most significant part of a decade of political turmoil the Conservatives have seen since then raises questions about the potential success of a strategic review. From Brexit to Partygate and Liz Truss's disastrously small budget, it is unlikely voters will be convinced by Sunak's attempts.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/06/hung-parliament-uk-general-election-rishi-sunak The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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