UK likely to announce stronger emissions target at Cop29 climate summit | Green Politics

The UK government is considering further pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions, likely to be announced at the UN climate change summit later this year.

It is hoped that this plan will help spark ambition to reduce emissions around the world and encourage other countries to follow suit.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit stricter emissions targets in February if the world is to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

But Ed Miliband, the secretary of state for energy security and carbon neutrality, plans to announce the new target months early, and is seeking support from Prime Minister Keir Starmer to ensure the UK takes a leading role on the international stage in climate negotiations.

Starmer attended the previous summit, Cop28, as opposition leader and has been invited to Cop29 in Azerbaijan in November.

Campaigners representing developing countries told the Guardian that the global South would welcome Britain's plan to publish its emissions reduction plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), early.

Harjit Singh, Global Engagement Lead for the Fossil Fuel Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said: The UK has a critical opportunity to set the standard for climate leadership and equity by publishing a strong NDC well ahead of Cop29. This proactive approach will signal to other developed countries the urgency to move away from fossil fuel production and commit to a future powered by renewable energy.

The UK can help lead a just global transition that leaves no one behind by increasing domestic investment in clean energy and committing its fair share of climate finance to support developing countries.

Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think tank, said: “In terms of international leadership and diplomacy, the UK has fallen far behind under the previous government. Being one of the first countries to present a strong NDC is exactly what we want to see to show that the UK is under new management.

It would be great to see the UK include a fossil fuel phase-out commitment in its NDC. That would set an example for climate plans to be announced as stopgap measures but not formally committed, but rather go through the UN process. That would show a path for others to follow.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to set NDCs, which outline their future emissions reduction targets, every five years, with ratchets to ensure they are reinforced each time. The UK’s current NDC pledges to cut emissions by 68% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

Miliband has asked the Committee on Climate Change to advise on the UK's next target, 2035. The Guardian understands the CCC's recommendations are likely to be published before the autumn budget at the end of October.

If that happens, there will be little time to produce a full NDC before Cop29. The UN wants countries to submit their NDCs as detailed plans rather than just goals, to increase the chances of full implementation.

However, after publishing its interim target, the UK could produce a detailed NDC to be submitted to the UN well ahead of the NDC submission deadline, as promised in a joint statement with Brazil earlier this month.

The COP29 summit is scheduled to take place on November 11, after the US presidential election, making it difficult to plan how the US administration will influence the negotiations.

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France has usually been a leader on climate change under President Emmanuel Macron, but it is now in political turmoil, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, another staunch advocate of climate change, is facing a political backlash at home.

These difficulties leave a vacuum on the world stage between the powerful advanced economies. This month, Miliband visited Brazil, the current president of the G20 and host of Cop30 next year, to signal his intention to work with developing countries. He also met in London last month with Azerbaijan’s Mukhtar Babayev, the president of Cop29.

Next year, Miliband will co-host a conference in Britain with the International Energy Agency.

Rishi Sunak, UK Climate Reset Drops Net Zero Target Video

These efforts stand in stark contrast to previous governments. Under Conservative Prime Ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson, the UK played a key role in international climate negotiations, including successfully hosting the 2021 Cop26 summit.

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunack have signalled a shift in direction, including banning Charles I from attending Cop27 in 2022, while Sunack has also made a major shift on climate policy.

Sunak had little impact at last year's Cop28, spending significantly less time there than other world leaders and meeting few of them.

The Department for Energy Security and Carbon Neutrality spokesperson said: The Energy Secretary will be at the forefront of climate negotiations and will lead the Cop29 negotiations on behalf of the UK. In line with the Paris Agreement, we have started planning for the next NDC, which will be submitted at least 9-12 months ahead of Cop30. No decision has been made on the exact timing.

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