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U.S. employers added just 12,000 jobs last month as hurricanes and strikes slashed payrolls.
WASHINGTON (AP) Employers across the Americas added just 12,000 jobs in October, a total that economists say was held back by the effects of strikes and hurricanes that temporarily knocked many workers out of their jobs. The report provides a somewhat fuzzy view of the labor market at the end of a presidential campaign that hinged largely on voters' feelings about the economy.
Last month's hiring gain was down significantly from the 223,000 jobs added in September. But economists estimate that Hurricanes Helen and Milton, combined with strikes at Boeing and elsewhere, had the effect of lowering net employment growth by tens of thousands of jobs in October.
The Labor Department report released Friday also showed the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% last month. The low unemployment rate suggests that the job market is still fundamentally healthy, even if it is not as robust as it was earlier this year. Add to that an inflation rate that has fallen from its 2022 peak to near pre-pandemic levels, and the overall economy appears to be on solid footing heading into Election Day.
The government did not estimate how many jobs may have been temporarily removed from payrolls last month. But economists estimate that the storms and strikes led to the loss of 100,000 jobs. Given the impact of the strikes, factories cut 46,000 jobs in October.
However, in a warning sign for future hiring, temporary staffing firms lost 49,000 jobs last month. Companies often hire temporary workers before committing to full-time jobs. On the other hand, health care companies added 52,000 jobs in October, and state and local governments added 39,000.
The October jobs report also revised down the government's estimate of job gains in August and September by a total of 112,000, indicating that the job market was not as robust than we initially thought.
Large one-off shocks to the economy in October make it impossible to know whether the labor market changed direction during the month, Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in a commentary . But downward revisions to employment growth through September show that it was slowing before these shocks hit.
Yet economists have noted that the United States has the strongest among the world's most advanced economies, one that has proven surprisingly durable despite the pressure of high interest rates. This week, for example, the government estimated that the economy grew at a healthy 2.8% annually last quarter, with consumer spending helping to drive growth.
Yet as voters choose between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, large numbers of Americans say they are unhappy with the state of the economy. Despite falling inflation, many people are exasperated by high prices, which soared during the recovery from the pandemic recession and remain about 20% higher on average than they were before inflation crashed. begins to accelerate in early 2021.
With inflation having eased significantly, the Fed is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate next week for the second time and likely again in December. The federal government's 11 rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 have managed to help slow inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. A series of Fed rate cuts is expected to lead, over time, to lower borrowing rates for consumers and businesses.
In the meantime, signs of a slowdown in the labor market have appeared. This week, the Labor Department reported that employers posted 7.4 million job openings in September. While this is still more than employers were posting on the eve of the 2020 pandemic, it is the smallest number of openings since January 2021.
And 3.1 million Americans left their jobs in September, the lowest figure in more than four years. A drop in resignations tends to indicate that more workers are losing confidence in their ability to land a better job elsewhere.
Even so, while the unemployment rate and the number of people filing for unemployment aid each week remain unusually low, Americans as a whole continue to enjoy unusual job security.
The cooling of the labor market continues, said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. Overall, the job market is not collapsing, but it is too early to say that conditions have stabilized.
For employers, the slowing labor market is easing labor shortages that have left many struggling to find and retain workers in recent years.
Jon Abt, co-president of Abt Electronics in Chicago, said it has become a little easier to hire and his company has felt less pressure to raise wages this year. Yet finding qualified installers and service technicians remains a challenge.
The electronics retailer, which employs 1,750 people, including 200 part-time, runs its own training program, works with trade schools to find workers and also receives candidates on referral. If the job market deteriorates further, Abt says, it will be easier to find the quality people we're looking for.
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AP Retail Writer Anne DInnocenzio in New York contributed to this report.
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