More Canadians have shunned U.S. travel than previously thought, cellphone data shows

Last September, Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley appealed to Canadian travelers as the tourism-centric city grappled with a drop in international visitors: “As mayor of Las Vegas, I tell everyone in Canada to come. We love you, we need you, and we miss you.”

In 2025, Las Vegas welcomed just under 1.2 million Canadian tourists, compared to 1.4 million in 2024, a drop of 17.4%, according to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA). The downward trend in northern visitors has been mirrored across the United States: Canadian government data indicates a 25% decline in year-over-year visits by Canadians to the United States in 2025.

New data reveals an even steeper decline in the number of Canadian travelers to the United States, and it’s not just tourists who are snubbing American cities: it’s business leaders, too.

An analysis of cellphone activity data from the University of Toronto’s School of Cities released Tuesday found a median year-over-year decline of 42 per cent in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas.

These significant declines in Canadian visitors occurred not only in cities known for their tourism, such as Orlando and Las Vegas, which would mean a slowdown in tourism, but also in major industrial and financial centers such as Dallas and Grand Rapids, Michigan.

While these regions are still known for their tourism, they also have important ties to Canadian businesses: Scotiabank opened a regional headquarters in Dallas in early 2026, joining the Royal Bank of Canada, the Bank of Montreal and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce as Canadian financial institutions with a presence there. Grand Rapids has strong ties to the Canadian auto industry and named Vaughan, Ontario as its sister city earlier this month.

Dallas saw a nearly 50% year-over-year drop in Canadian visitors, and Grand Rapids saw a 53% drop.

“What these numbers tell us is that it’s not just about tourist travel — it’s largely about tourist travel — but that other travel is being affected as well,” Karen Chapple, co-author of the analysis and director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto, told Fortune.

Canadians abandon business travel to the United States

Chapple believes much of the decline in travel is due to Canadians boycotting American products. It’s been more than a year since President Donald Trump imposed a series of global tariffs, including a 25 per cent tax on most Canadian imports. The levies, along with Trump’s claims that Canada should be a 51st state, correlate with Canadians’ dissatisfaction with their southern neighbors. A February Politico poll of 2,000 Canadian adults found that 58% believed the United States was not a reliable ally. Nearly 80% said Trump had weakened Canada-U.S. relations.

“This is probably driven by the feeling that if we want to boycott in our personal lives, let’s do it in our professional lives as well,” Chapple said.

These bitter feelings resulted in a significant withdrawal of Canadians from the American economy. The Center for Economic and Policy Research found that by mid-2025, U.S. establishments with the highest proportion of Canadians among their visitors had about 6% fewer employees than establishments in less exposed markets, translating to a loss of between 14,000 and 42,000 jobs in those exposed markets.

Chapple sees the loss of business travelers as even more costly than that of tourists. Business travel accounts for about 20% of total U.S. travel, but about 60% of airline and lodging revenue, according to the U.S. Travel Association. This is because business travel requires greater spending on hotels and conference centers, as well as more restaurants, compared to leisure travel, when travelers may be visiting family or friends.

It is certain that Canadians continue to invest money in American assets, thus limiting the impact of a real boycott. From January to May 2025, Canadian investors invested C$59.9 billion (US$43.3 billion) in net purchases of U.S. stocks and debt securities, according to National Bank of Canada financial markets data, the largest year-to-date sum since at least 1990.

Still, Chapple warns, a decline in Canadian visitors in the long term could be a harbinger of greater economic retrenchment from one of the United States’ most historic allies.

“This indicates the beginning of a change that could continue,” she said. “Hard to say.”

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