Trump and Iran send mixed messages on Qatar talks

People walk along the Corniche in Doha, Qatar, June 29, 2026. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are expected to hold high-level talks in Doha, according to media reports.

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Oil prices ended a month marked by significant declines on Tuesday, with energy market traders closely monitoring the possibility of further negotiations between the United States and Iran in Qatar.

Brent crude futures for August delivery, the international benchmark, fell to $72.92 a barrel. The contract fell about 21% in June, its biggest monthly decline since March 2020.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery fell 1.8% to $69.50. The US oil market standard fell more than 20% in June, its worst monthly performance since the end of 2021.

The moves came as oil traders monitored prospects for U.S.-Iran talks in Doha. Yet Brent and WTI are both up for the year as the US-Iran war has reduced production and distribution.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that talks between the two countries would take place on Tuesday in the Qatari capital, saying via social media that Tehran had “requested a meeting” following an exchange of US airstrikes over the weekend.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson reportedly denied on Monday that talks were planned in the coming days. The visit of an Iranian technical delegation to Qatar this week is unrelated to the visit of U.S. officials to the country, the spokesperson said.

American special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha on Tuesday. A Qatari government spokesman said he would meet with mediators, not directly with the Iranians.

These mixed messages appear to underscore the fragility of the interim peace deal reached by the United States and Iran earlier this month.

The two countries concluded a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 to end fighting that had crippled global oil flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Located in the Persian Gulf, between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. This narrow waterway typically handles about 20% of the world’s oil traffic.

“The situation can change very quickly”

Energy sector analysts say they are surprised by the pace of the sell-off in the oil market, noting that it has been far more aggressive than most people expected.

“Price action in recent weeks reflects a market that treats this temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran as a permanent agreement. This is clearly not the case, and as we have seen over the last four months, the situation can change very quickly,” ING strategists said in a research note published Monday.

“It took enough time to reach an agreement on a temporary ceasefire. Reaching a permanent agreement that would resolve the nuclear problem within 60 days would be very optimistic. Of course, there is always the possibility of an extension of the ceasefire, which would in fact amount to pushing the limits,” added the ING strategists.

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