Now is the time for Mexico to talk about earthquakes

Every September 19, Mexico holds a nationwide public exercise to commemorate the 1985 earthquake that killed an estimated 9,500 people and devastated families across the country. In 2017, just two hours after memorial exercises, Mexico City was shaken again in a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that killed more than 200 people in the capital and the states of Puebla, Mexico and Morelos.

The Mexican Republic is located in a highly seismic zone of the planet, crossed by the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, part of the Pacific Ring of Fire. Additionally, along the western coast of Mexico, the Cocos and North American tectonic plates meet in a subduction zone that creates frequent earthquakes.

Just outside, the Guerrero Gap is of particular concern to scientists because of its proximity to Mexico City, which has already suffered several devastating earthquakes. Mexico’s capital sits on a sinking aquifer, which is particularly prone to earthquakes as a result of the compression of the ancient lake beds on which the city was built.

There are debates among seismologists about which parts of Mexico are most likely to produce the next major earthquake. It could be off the coast of Michoacan, where, according to the National Seismological Service (SSN), small earthquakes occur daily.

It could also be from the southeast of Guerrero Gap, or indeed in Gap itself, which could cause an earthquake of catastrophic magnitudes.

The Ring of Fire is characterized by active volcanoes and frequent earthquakes. United States Geological Service

Some of the poorest states in Mexico are among those most prone to earthquakes, including Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Guerrero. In addition, they are often exposed to hurricanes and floods.

Historically, families in these states have some of the lowest income rates in the country and some of the highest rates of illiteracy, which have been exacerbated by economic and personal losses as a result of natural disasters.

The exacerbation of social disparities as a result of these disasters is in many ways more difficult to repair than physical destruction, and it constantly affects everything in a cyclical manner.

Earthquakes alone do not cause deaths. Rather, it is the failure to prepare for the possibility of an earthquake that continues to make it devastating. Structural preparation and a culture of preparedness have been shown to be the way to mitigate disasters, but this is only effective if there is the political will to do so.

Take Chile, for example, which has historically been hit by a large number of powerful earthquakes, including, in 1960, the Valdivia earthquake, the largest recorded in the 20th century. Today, the nation is considered a model for earthquake preparedness.

In 2014, Chile was hit by an 8.2-magnitude earthquake that resulted in relatively few casualties. And why? Because there are rules and guidelines in place to prepare for it.

A victim is rescued from the wreckage of the disastrous 1985 earthquake in Mexico City.

More than a million people were evacuated from coastal areas within hours, and the country has strict building codes that now require new buildings to withstand a 9.0-magnitude earthquake without collapsing.

This was not always the case. After the 2010 earthquake and tsunami, which claimed thousands of lives, reform of Chile’s national disaster coping strategies was not only possible, but also common. The failure to prepare for the 2010 earthquake revealed the need for dialogue between people on the ground in coastal communities and government legislators whose policies determine how to mitigate risks and manage disasters.

Chile’s example offers some big picture solutions for countries across Latin America, and indeed for earthquake-prone regions around the world.

Earthquakes in countries along tectonic boundaries are an inevitable part of the law of nature. Despite the fact that these events will necessarily occur, they should not be destructive to societies and states, if large-scale structural change is undertaken.

In Mexico, this means opening a dialogue between the people in power responsible for disaster risk management and those who live their daily lives in constant fear of the next disaster.

In the end, earthquakes are a far cry from God’s mysterious works. They are natural disasters that nations can, and should, prepare for so that they do not simply maintain a destructive status quo in terms of their disaster response (or lack thereof). The real question is not whether Mexico is waiting for another earthquake of 1985 and 2017, or whether the country should get used to the smaller earthquakes that occur constantly over time.

Three years after the 2017 Mexico earthquake, Marion Angelica Vera of Juchitán de Zaragoza, Oaxaca, was still living in her roofless home, which she lost in the earthquake.

The real question is whether the powers that be will have an interest in fighting the legislative battles necessary to ensure that when the next earthquake hits – as it surely will – a safety net will be fixed.

It’s already too late to talk about earthquakes when they happen; Instead, discussions should happen during the gaps in between – when there is time and space to do something about it.

It’s time to talk about earthquakes.

Shannon Collins is an environmental reporter at Ninth Wave Global, an environmental organization and research center. You write from Campeche.

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