What is Long COVID? And what is my risk of getting it? : Goat and SodaExBulletin

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One of the most dreadful aspects of COVID-19 seems to be that symptoms can be prolonged after infection. What is the risk of prolonged COVID if infected? And does vaccination change that?

Over the past year, there has been a surge in published research on long COVIDs. Dozens of these studies seek to estimate the risk of prolonged symptoms months after COVID infection.

However, a closer look at the data reveals a major contradiction. Estimates of prevalence of long-term COVID range from less than 5% to nearly 60% of all cases of COVID. What’s wrong?

“Even for scientists, it can be really confusing,” he says. Christina Pagel, Heads the Clinical Operations Research Unit at University College London.

One of the big problems is in this term “long COVID”. Scientists, doctors and the media call “long COVID” more than just one illness or disability. “The’long COVID’is actually a failure of two or three different groups, so it looks like they are grouped together,” says Pagel.

Each of these disorders may have a specific set of symptoms and causes. Some affect the population differently than others, or last for different periods of time.

Severe illness puts you at high risk of long COVID

Much of the early work focused primarily on people hospitalized for COVID. “Obviously, these people will get more serious illnesses,” says a geriatrician doctor. Claire Steves At King’s College London. Some people spend time in the ICU or ventilator.

In this serious illness, either the virus itself or the body’s reaction to fight the virus increases the risk of organ damage. “Some people may have respiratory scarring and a type of fibrosis due to inflammation of the lungs,” she says.

Some people have an inflammation of the heart muscle called myocarditis.Some people have blood vessels and blood vessels that are inflamed brain.. “In some individuals, there is clear evidence of changes in areas of the brain that are sensitive to the sense of smell,” says Steves.

This tissue damage and inflammation can cause many protracted symptoms such as fast heart rate, severe malaise, breathing problems, and cognitive problems.

And organ damage can take a long time to heal, regardless of its cause. In fact, when a person becomes seriously ill in the hospital, the symptoms can be prolonged, says primary care physicians and bioethicists. Dr. Zuckery Burger At Johns Hopkins University.

“It’s well known that people take a long time to recover after a serious illness,” says Berger. “So I think it’s only natural that those who reach ICU will take longer to recover.”

Studies show that people hospitalized with COVID have a very high risk of prolonged symptoms 6 months after COVID, about 50%, Steves said.

Mild or moderate illness can significantly reduce the risk

many News report It has been suggested that the risk of prolonged COVID after mild or moderate infection appears to be similar to the risk in severe cases.Indeed, some the study Fatigue, brain fog, dyspnea, chest pain, cough, joint and muscle pain, abdominal symptoms, headache, anxiety, etc. Up to 60% of people 6 months after taking SARS-CoV-2 1 It is known to report one or more protracted symptoms. Or depression.

However, many of these studies lack what is known as a control group. That is, it does not take into account that these symptoms can be common in people who are not infected with COVID or who have other types of infections. In other words, scientists are not sure if these symptoms are specifically related to COVID or if they are typical of recovery from many infections that no one is paying attention to.

“You have this belief that you have an infection, you get treatment for it, and you finish it. You get back to work and you’re fine,” says Berger. “But for many, getting sick is not the case.”

For example, consider a bout of pneumonia caused by a bacterium. Antibiotics can end the infection. But then many people endure the symptoms after a few weeks. “Half of the people have breathing problems a month after pneumonia,” says Berger. “It’s a lot of people, right?

The same is true for influenza. And research, Release In September, we will articulate this idea. British researchers have analyzed electronic health records of nearly 400,000 people with confirmed flu or COVID diagnoses. Then they saw who had the protracted symptoms. Almost 60% of people with COVID had at least one symptom lasting 6 months, but almost 40% of people with influenza also had at least one persistent symptom, similar to that seen in people with COVID. Had

“Many people have prolonged symptoms after an infection,” says Berger. “I think that’s what we need to achieve.”

Therefore, another type of “long COVID” can be someone who takes a long time to recover from an infection, whether it is influenza, pneumonia, or COVID. In other words, there may have been a “long flu” or “long pneumonia” all the time, but it was simply not evaluated.

COVID is probably a new trigger for postviral syndrome

There is increasing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can cause some post-infection syndromes, or diseases known to occur after infection. These include Chronic fatigue syndromeAlso called ME / CFS, And a blood circulation disorder called postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, or POTS..

For example, one studyIncluded 130 patients admitted with COVID, found that 13% of them met ME / CFS criteria 6 months after diagnosis.

Dr. Peter Row At Johns Hopkins University, there is evidence that even mild illnesses can cause this illness. “The sample size is small, but [patients] A person whose function remains impaired [six months] After COVID-19 infection … everything meets ME / CFS standards, “he wrote in an email to NPR. With more severe acute COVID-19 organ damage. “

Over 2 Million Americans Affected

Therefore, after considering these other causes of so-called “long COVID”, what remains is probably a disorder specific to SARS-CoV-2. “There is no standard definition for this syndrome yet,” says infectious disease epidemiologists. Islay Longini At the University of Florida. “This is a collection of symptoms such as shortness of breath, brain fog, and malaise, but it is also a problem with certain organs or tissues such as the heart or brain.”

The disorder may be related to the virus invading and staying in organs and tissues, or the prolonged inflammation left by the body fighting the virus, Longini said.

The percentage of people who develop this collection of symptoms months after COVID is still unknown, but Steves of King’s College in London tells her. analysis Indicates that the risk for those who are not hospitalized in the UK is much lower

She says the UK National Bureau of Statistics has the best estimates at this time for the prevalence of these long COVID symptoms in this population. The data includes self-reports from more than 1 million people diagnosed with COVID.

“Generally speaking, in the entire population, the data show that less than 5% of people have a long COVID of 12 weeks or more after infection,” says Steves.

Given the vast number of COVID cases in the United States (and around the world), even at a rate of 5%, more than 2 million Americans (and about 13 million worldwide) are clustered with this particular COVID symptom. Means to be affected by. At least a few months (and more will suffer from other post-virus infection problems).

Fortunately, according to Steves, the proportion of people with these prolonged COVID symptoms drops dramatically one year after infection. “Sure, some people have been symptomatic for over a year, now 18 months,” she says. “But the proportion of those individuals is very small. Gradually most people are getting better. I can see that in my clinic.”

Still, so many people are affected that healthcare professionals need to pay attention to all types of long COVID signs — and be open about it, he said. increase. Paddy Sentongo, An epidemiologist at Pennsylvania State University. “Doctors need to listen to patients. They tell you what’s happening to them. They don’t create symptoms. Patients know best what’s happening in their body. I am. “

How to reduce the risk of long COVID

The best way to reduce the risk of long COVID of any type is to reduce the risk of developing severe cases of COVID. And to do that, Steves says getting vaccinated is at the top of the list.She and her colleagues found Vaccination with two doses halves the risk of developing a cluster of COVID-specific symptoms after infection.

However, Longini of the University of Florida states that the overall effect of the vaccine on the risk of long COVIDs of all kinds is much greater. “Vaccines probably reduce the chances of getting sick by 70%. Therefore, overall, the long COVID reduction among vaccinated people seems to be 80 or 90%.

“It just shows you the power of the COVID-19 vaccine,” he adds. They protect not only from acute illnesses, but also from various types of chronic illnesses associated with SARS-CoV-2.