“The Rule of Contagion: Why Things Spread — And Why They Stop”: Goats and SodasExBulletin

The spread of coronaviruses is strikingly similar to the spread of fake news, gun violence, and even social media epidemics. What they all have in common is that mathematics plays a role in predicting how things will be “viral” whether they are germs, rumors, or internet trends. is.

Adam Kucharski, Associate Professor of Tropical Medicine at London Hygiene School, Rule of Contagion: Why Things Spread — And Why It Stops

Adam Kucharski

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Adam Kucharski

In his new book, Contagion rules, Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, talked about how to understand all kinds of infections.

In your book you describe drinking games, Techno nomination, It started in 2014 on Facebook and YouTube in Australia and became “Viral”. You studied it when you came to England, and you correctly predicted the game would die soon. How did you reach that conclusion?

At the techno people, people drank pints of beer and lots of alcohol. Each one does it, posts a video online and recommends a few others to outdo them. They had to meet the challenge and nominate another within 24 hours. In studying it, there was 2-bit information that was really hard to get at the onset of the illness: Reproduction number — how many others “infect” one person — lag time, after 24 hours, people spread the game. stop. Friends tend to get together and nominate the same person. This reduces the number of views to less than 1 and reduces the occurrence. Despite the media enthusiasm of early February 2014, [the game] By the end of the month it was almost gone.

Talk about the importance of reproductive rates in transmission.

It is the exponential spread of mathematics. How many other infections do you have for each case of COVID-19 you have? In the early stages of this pandemic, the number of views, or “R”, was a few. Currently, it is in the range of 0.8 to 1.2 in many countries. More than 1 means growing. Lowering the “R” rate to less than 1 means that one person will be infected less often than the other, and it can be said that the spread of the disease is under control and eventually disappears. If the “R” is .95, the epidemic will be reduced.

Even if the “R” is less than 1 and the epidemic is diminishing, some people still get infected, get sick, and even die, right?

Yes, that’s a good point. As the transmission slows, many can still get sick. I don’t think the problem was solved when the “R” number went below 1.

How long can you predict how the virus will spread?

The difficult part of predicting the future of COVID-19 is that it relies heavily on what governments and individuals do. You can see different scenarios depending on what people are doing. Models are a way to help expand your potential. This happens with longer lockdowns. This happens when you unlock lockdown early. But a much bigger issue is how governments and people handle information. In some countries, we may find that the expected level of infection is acceptable. Other countries believe that the same level of infection is too high and need to take more and longer measures.

Tracking contact has been identified as an important factor in stopping the spread of infection. Will it work in other areas as well, such as stopping the spread of gun violence?

In a pandemic, you identify a patient and then identify other people in the person’s network who they contact. You should isolate them all, and it should stop the epidemic. Violent events can also spread through definable networks such as gangs. If you’re filming, try to find friends, gangsters, or other people connected through other networks. Some communities have what are known as thwarts of violence. This is a well-known and trusted person in the community. They may find a friend of the victim who was shot and talk to them about the risk and worthlessness of retaliation.

What do you think this pandemic will be?

If you did something different, it’s often difficult to imagine what happened. But you can see different scenarios. Travel is restricted in some countries, such as New Zealand, and is now regulated locally. Border restrictions may allow them to continue. Other places, such as Hong Kong and South Korea, continue to contain the pandemic, but are reigniting. Although some places in Europe and America have unlocked, they do it differently. With or without various alternatives such as testing, contact tracking, mandatory masks, and social distance. Furthermore, lockdown protection cannot be implemented elsewhere, such as in India or South Africa.

With this pandemic, there are many variations around the world, and real-time alternative reality develops. For a long time things don’t look the same.

Susan Brink is a freelance writer covering health and medicine. She is the author of 4th semester Co-author with Change of heart.