Terrawatch: How sea level changes can trigger earthquakes | earthquakes

Most earthquake faults require a huge input of energy to make them shift but sometimes a small nudge is enough. Recent data from the Armutlu Peninsula, on the southern shore of Turkey’s Sea of ​​Marmara, show that small changes in stress associated with sea level fluctuations are sufficient to trigger earthquakes of magnitude 4.5.

Scientists monitored seismic activity and sea level change in the area for six months and found that the likelihood of earthquakes on the peninsula increased dramatically when sea levels were rising. The effect was amplified during the winter, when changes in sea level were greatest.

Patricia Martínez-Garzon, lead author of the paper in Geophysical Research Letters, said: “The sea level change in the Sea of ​​Marmara is small – as low as 0.8 metres – so the fact that these small changes lead to earthquakes suggests that these faults only need a small kick to rupture. “.

The Armutlu Fault is a small offshoot of the North Anatolian Main Fault and is easy to observe because it is located on the ground. But the big question is whether the main branch of the North Anatolian Rift, which runs underwater 12 miles (20 km) from Istanbul, could be caused by sea level changes. This large fault last ruptured in 1766 and is believed to have been caused by an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater.

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