Health
Hospitalization at COVID-19 SF could be 10 times higher by October
San Francisco’s Public Health Department says further resumption plans are pending as the city sees a surge of new coronavirus infections that could lead to disastrous consequences in the coming weeks.
“The virus isn’t just there, it’s more than ever,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, deputy director at a news conference on Wednesday. “We’re working with researchers who see the reproductive rate of the virus continue to exceed 1, and we currently estimate that number is around 1.3,” he said. Mention was made of the term R0 or “r naught” used to describe In essence, this means that for every 3 people infected with the virus, 4 new people are infected.
Dr. Colfax said at current rates, the number of infected people in San Francisco who would need a hospital bed could be ten times higher by the fall. “If it doesn’t go well, there will be big problems between the end of August and September, with an average peak of 900 inpatients by early October,” he said. “And to put this in the frame of reference, it peaked in 94 cases during the last surge in April.”
According to Colfax, contact tracking shows that most of the outbreaks in San Francisco are in a small group of people who know each other.
“There’s more activity going on for social gatherings that people do,” he said. “We really need to make sure people take precautions, don’t visit, don’t have birthday parties, don’t barbecue.”
Essential workers are also at risk. “We believe this may be due to certain workplace situations where no safety measures have been taken,” Dr. Colfax said. “So we look at it and, according to established health directives, increase our oversight and enforcement of necessary precautions.” Also, residential congestion is a known factor that increases the spread of coronaviruses. Listed the situation.
The good: The San Francisco testing effort is solid and in the green zone that the city considers acceptable. Contact tracers can communicate with 85% of infected people and 85% of those who may have been exposed. The goal is 90% in both categories.
Dr. Colfax said San Francisco was better than the rest of California, but the window to avoid a new blockade is shrinking. “It’s not yet decided whether it’s a rollback of local action or a state-determined watch list,” he said. “We always knew this was a possibility. Given the unprecedented uncertainty, we continue to face it.”
Other updates from today’s press conference:
- According to Colfax, 4,696 people diagnosed with COVID-19 died in San Francisco and 50 died in San Francisco. (1:28)
- The number per 100,000 cases increased to 7.7. It is currently the highest threat level in the Red Zone. (5:06)
- The current hospital stay remains in the Green Zone. (5:28)
- Tests are also taking place in the Green Zone, but getting results is delayed. (6:24)
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