Australian cities will not receive any warning of a major earthquake

It is followed by a slower moving but much more dangerous S wave. The gap between the P and S waves can be tens of seconds, allowing for a quick warning to be extinguished.

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“You’re talking about tens of seconds between a P and an S wave,” said Professor Phil Cummins, a seismologist at the Australian National University.

“It’s not a lot of time. And it can be argued about whether it is enough time for people to leave the buildings – and whether they should do so.”

Public health advice during an earthquake is for people to stay inside while the building is shaking – leaving can put you at risk of falling debris or injury in any resulting panic.

Cummins said early warning systems are extremely helpful to people who operate dangerous machinery. Utility companies are taking the time to shut down gas mains and cut power to machines that could explode if damaged. Surgeons can also stop working.

“You really need to be careful not to panic people. This is only really effective for operators of critical infrastructure or critical equipment, whose operations can be shut down quickly,” Cummins said.

But buying those precious few seconds is difficult and expensive.

Seismographs must be placed near the epicenter to be effective. This works in California, where fault lines are well known.

But Australia is big and covered with undiscovered fault lines.

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“We know about some of the active faults. But we don’t know all of them. I don’t think anyone is going to tell you they have a good idea where the next big earthquake is going to happen,” Cummins said.

The largest earthquake the country has ever seen, a magnitude 6.6 quake that struck Tennant Creek in 1988, is a “prime example”, said Jonathan Bathgate, a seismologist on duty at Geosciences Australia.

“We haven’t had any earthquakes there before. There was no indication that they would be geologically active.”

Even large earthquakes rarely cause much damage. The effects of Victoria’s largest earthquake, which hit Woods Point in 2021, were largely limited to the destruction of a burger storefront.

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Earthquakes that destroy cities and claim lives, such as Newcastle’s magnitude 5.6 in 1989, are fortunately rare.

To install an early warning system here, you will need to cover the continent with sensors. California has more than 900 stations spread over an area of ​​423,000 square kilometers, and its fault lines are well known. Australia extends over 7.6 million square kilometres.

“If we had something like that, it would be a very big undertaking. We have a lot of ground to cover, and a lot of tools to mount it,” Bathgate said.

While earthquakes cannot be predicted the way volcanic eruptions can, scientists can predict them by looking at databases of past earthquakes.

This is because there is a relationship between small and large earthquakes: there are 10 times as many earthquakes of magnitude 2 as there are earthquakes of magnitude 3 in a given area.

Using this base, plus data from existing instruments, scientists can create “seismic hazard maps.” Melbourne falls within a slightly elevated risk area, while the area between Wonthaggi and Traralgon in southeastern Victoria remains at higher risk.

Liam Mannix’s Examine newsletter explains and analyzes the science with a rigorous focus on the evidence. Sign up for it every week.

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