Nankai River water level rises but no abnormal changes observed; people urged to reconsider disaster preparedness

Yomiuri Shimbun The Hyogandana Sea, the epicenter of the recent quake, and Miyazaki City are seen from a Yomiuri Shimbun aircraft on Friday morning.

By Keiji Ohara and Mikoto Hata / Yomiuri Shimbun

6:00 JST, August 11, 2024

Following its first major earthquake warning called “Additional Information on the Nankai Trough Earthquake,” the Japan Meteorological Agency has been closely monitoring seismic activity in the presumed epicenter of the quake.

Although no abnormal changes have been reported so far, caution is required in anticipation of a possible subsequent earthquake in the larger area.

“Although the possibility of a major earthquake occurring anytime soon is low, people are advised to take this opportunity to review disaster preparedness measures,” the agency said.

“more active than usual”

Kiyoshi Takeda, head of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Large-scale Earthquake Analysis Bureau, explained to reporters on Friday evening the status of the Nankai Trough after the agency issued the advisory.

“Seismic activities in the Hyuganda Sea have become more active than usual,” he added.

On the same evening, the agency issued a commentary on the status of seismic activities in the presumed epicenter area of ​​the Nankai Trough earthquake.

The agency monitors the expansion and contraction of the Earth using strain gauges, as it is believed that the probability of a large earthquake is greater when the state of plate boundaries changes over a short period of time.

“We will continue to monitor volatility closely,” Takeda added.

29 governorates covered

The area covered by the ongoing warnings of a major earthquake extends to as many as 707 cities, towns and villages in 29 prefectures, most of them on the Pacific side of the country from Ibaraki to Okinawa prefectures.

In the event of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough, these are areas that could experience tremors of less than 6 or higher on the Japanese seismic scale of 7 or tsunami waves of 3 meters or more. The government designated them as “areas for strengthening disaster prevention measures” in 2014.

The government's damage forecast says the largest-ever Nankai Trough earthquake is expected to hit a wide area from Shizuoka to Miyazaki prefectures, with a maximum magnitude of 7.0 – the same as the Great East Japan Earthquake. A tsunami as high as 34 meters could hit coastal areas within minutes. The death toll or missing could exceed 230,000.

The most recent earthquakes to hit the Nankai Trough were a 7.9 magnitude quake in 1944 and an 8.0 magnitude quake in 1946. Historically, large earthquakes have occurred at intervals of 100 to 150 years, raising concerns about the next large quake.

“The recent 7.1-magnitude earthquake occurred at the western edge of the hypothesized focal area,” said Naoshi Hirata, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and chairman of the agency’s assessment study board. “When a larger-magnitude earthquake occurs, it can cause damage over a wide area. So it is important to strengthen preparations in the entire region.”

Why one week?

The Japan Meteorological Agency has asked residents in areas covered by a major earthquake warning to reaffirm their earthquake preparedness and prepare for immediate evacuation in the event of a major earthquake.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said that if no abnormal phenomena are detected, the agency will lift the warning after one week, knowing that the possibility of a large-scale earthquake has not yet disappeared.

“We took into consideration that people’s health might be affected and they might have difficulty maintaining social activities if the evacuation period exceeds one week,” said Nobuo Fukuwa, a professor emeritus at Nagoya University who was involved in the system design of the special information system at the government’s Central Disaster Management Council, about why the warning would only be in effect for one week.

“This is not an estimate based on science, but on the socially acceptable limit,” said Shinya Tsukada, director of the agency's earthquake and volcanic engineering division.

He then called on the audience, saying: “Although this does not necessarily mean that a subsequent major earthquake is likely to occur, we ask people as individuals and as part of society as a whole to take this opportunity to reconsider disaster prevention measures.”

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