Not if but when: Preparing for the next big earthquake along the New Madrid Fault

NEW MADRID, Mo. — A small earthquake sent tremors across the Tennessee, Kentucky and Missouri border last weekend, a reminder that much of the Midwest lies on a major fault line called the New Madrid, which experienced one of the most devastating earthquakes in history in 1812.

While the magnitude of the earthquake, which occurred near Tiptonville, Tennessee, reached 2.8 on the Richter scale, local media reported that tremors were felt throughout the region.

There are hundreds of small earthquakes along the fault line every year, and it is only a matter of time before the next big one strikes.

On Thursday, October 17, thousands of people participated in an earthquake preparedness exercise called “The Big Shock,” and practiced survival skills. There is little officials can do to prepare – because they know we cannot prevent earthquakes, all we can do is prepare.

This summer, officials conducted preparatory drills throughout the state of Missouri. Emergency responders trained on when buildings might collapse, and how to rescue as many people as possible.

Firefighters and first responders conducted training at the Chesterfield Mall in the St. Louis area in July, where they simulated search and rescue missions. The three-day training scenario simulated an 8.4 magnitude earthquake along the New Madrid Seismic Zone and involved 500 people, including local emergency responders, military responders, hospitals and volunteers.

This was the first time the St. Louis area hosted the training. Last year I performed in Nashville.

Matt Wilcox is the Assistant Fire Chief for the Maplewood, Missouri, Fire Department and Rescue Squad and an officer with FEMA's Missouri Urban Search and Rescue Task Force 1. He described the exercise: “We were searching through rubble and broken delivery trucks, trying to locate a person or a sign of life. Responders in the St. Louis area are constantly training.

“It's a tough day's work for everyone here,” Wilcox said.

A 2004 FEMA study found that if the 1812 earthquakes, which measured 7 to 8 on the Richter scale, struck today, damage could exceed $200 billion. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that earthquakes cause $14 billion in damage each year nationwide.

The Midwest has not seen a large earthquake recently, although hundreds of small quakes have been detected so far in 2024.

But things have changed since 1812. The Midwest was rural and open and, 200 years later, more developed. There are roads, railways and many cities and buildings. The damage can be staggering.

Risk study

Seismologists believe that the real danger comes after the tremors end.

Pablo Aravena is a doctoral student in geophysics at Saint Louis University, which has an entire department dedicated to studying the New Madrid fault line.

“You have to start worrying about whether the pipes are going to break, and how long are we going to have electricity,” Aravena said.

Maj. Kelly Hudson is a project officer with the Michigan-based 46th Task Force of the National Guard, which co-led emergency response training in the St. Louis area this summer.

“When you look at the St. Louis area, especially the New Madrid seismic fault, one could argue that we deserve one of these,” he said.

The biggest concern for officials is critical infrastructure, such as roads and bridges. Scientists say that's why it's important to understand earthquakes better, and build smarter to prepare for them.

SLU's Earthquake Center was created to study hazards and better understand earthquakes, a difficult science. There are a lot of scientists still don't understand.

“Why did the earthquake happen?” said Robert Herrmann, professor emeritus of geophysics at SLU. “What is the nature of the earthquake, and where is the fault?”

Scientists aim to estimate the probability of this happening, because they cannot accurately predict this probability. “We don't know when it will happen, and it's not for lack of trying,” Aravena said.

Officials know that some buildings are more vulnerable, such as those built on soft soil or near rivers. That's why Missouri recommends homeowners sign up for earthquake insurance, even though rates have declined in recent years.

“If disaster strikes, there will be a response to help people affected — and it will be done quickly,” Herman said.

Nationwide, the USGS has thousands of computer monitoring stations that constantly monitor seismic activity.

For Aravena, it's personal. He is a survivor of the 2010 Chilean earthquake, which measured 8.8 on the Richter scale. “I was on the seventh floor – and I remember – it was very scary.”

“One way to overcome fear is to understand it,” Aravena said.

Look to the past for answers

In New Madrid, a museum was established to catalog and document the effects of the series of devastating earthquakes that struck the country more than 200 years ago. The report includes first-hand accounts from several survivors, including Eliza Bryan, a woman who described loud noises, destroyed forests and devastating floods.

“The first steamship ever launched on the Mississippi River, New Orleans… was actually just south of New Madrid when the earthquakes hit,” said Jeff Grunewald, the museum's director. “Welcome to the Mississippi River, right?”

After the shaking, thousands of trees floated around the Mississippi River. Three days after the earthquake, the sailors passed through the New Madrid area. “They found that the city of New Madrid had been destroyed,” the city's website said. “They did not dare stop to pick up a few survivors, for fear of being overrun, and they were without supplies.”

New Orleans was able to continue its journey south, and locals began trying to rebuild, Grunwald said. He said the New Madrid earthquake represents the first time the federal government has provided disaster assistance to citizens.

These earthquakes are more than just a footnote in history. Modern seismologists have studied these historic earthquakes to try to understand the tectonic, human and environmental conditions surrounding these powerful tremors.

It's not a question of if, but when. Until then, all people can do is prepare. “It's wiser to worry about them, not to be afraid of them,” Herman said. “But take wise steps to prepare for something in the future.”

Several states in the region, which include southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Kentucky and southern Illinois, have trade, economic and transportation response plans.

“You have to worry about whether the road structures are down, the bridges are safe — how do you get supplies? So you can create a nice training scenario,” Herman said.

For individuals, it is important to know the basics. Stay away from windows, protect your head, seek cover, and if you are outside, stay away from trees and buildings. Learn more at ShakeOut.org.

“Be aware that these things can happen,” Aravena said. “But don’t live your life as if the worst will happen every day.”

This story is a product of the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk, an independent reporting network based at the University of Missouri in partnership with Report for America, with significant funding from the Walton Family Foundation. Tegan Wendland contributed reporting.

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