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If Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris in the US elections, what should Anthony Albanese's reaction be? | Arthur Sinodinos

If Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris in the US elections, what should Anthony Albanese's reaction be? | Arthur Sinodinos

 


The state of American democracy will be put to the test in the coming weeks as the outcome of the election is determined.

Support for candidates is split almost evenly along gender, education, race, demographics, religion and geography. The final turnout will determine whether there will be a blowout for a candidate.

The divisions in the Americas are structural and there are very few independents left in American politics.

Former President Donald Trump was able to sense and express the concerns of Americans who feel alienated from their own country, deeply distrustful of its institutions and yearning for a return to an economic and social order in their own image.

Social media exacerbates the divisions and cultural and identity wars that recall an era of normalcy disrupted by immigration, the expansion of rights without responsibilities and where freedom of expression was not supposedly oppressed by omnipresent political correctness.

Trump supporters don't want Americans fighting for abstract principles like the rules-based world order or for those who would mop up American generosity. No more eternal wars like in Iraq and Afghanistan, the country is the priority.

For his supporters, Trump presents himself as an experienced negotiator. He professes and argues that he is crazy a theory of chaos in foreign policy. This is sold as a force for world peace because it would unbalance other leaders and leave them guessing about his intentions. The art of governing is based on the assertion of raw power between nation-states, not on alliances, partnerships or multilateralism.

Taiwan is chaos theory in action; the former president leaves everyone uncertain about his intentions. He explained how Taiwan took over the chip industry from the United States; maybe it will be defended if China invades, maybe not; maybe additional tariffs will be imposed on China if that happens, but either way it's academic because Xi Jinping respects him and wouldn't invade on his watch.

Ukraine would not have happened for the same reasons. He can resolve it with President Putin in a few days. According to this foreign policy theory, autocrats should be respected and courted. We should be friends with Kim Jong-un, after all he has nuclear weapons.

Australia must leverage its action, influence and impact in Washington across the political spectrum.

When it comes to trade, Trump is an old-fashioned mercantilist. American surpluses are good, deficits bad. The best bilateral agreements tip the scales in favor of the Americas. The North American Free Trade Agreement was adapted from the Mexico-Canada agreement and was passed by Congress with Democratic support. The backlash against free trade runs deep. But there could be limited exclusions for countries like Australia because we have a trade deficit with America and we carry our weight on defence.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to visit Washington soon if Trump wins. Even though many world leaders think the same thing, we enjoy a special position. In preparation for a visit, pre-travel consultations should take place with partners close to the region, particularly Japan.

Australia must leverage its action, influence and impact in Washington across the political spectrum. We have fought together for human and universal values ​​as loyal but not subservient allies and partners throughout the last century and into the present. The American alliance serves our national interest and our sovereignty in decision-making. Australians know how to give frank and courageous advice to leaders in Washington, without resorting to the megaphone.

We must prioritize the debate on the security and economic architecture of our region, which is clearly linked to our bilateral concerns. The conversation should be about why this architecture is important to America. Why Americans Should Not Underestimate the Benefits to Us of Allied and Partner Groupings Working in the Indo-Pacific, Including Aukus, the Quad Leaders' Meeting, and Other Minilaterals Involving America , Australia, Japan, Korea and the Philippines. Relations with ASEAN and the Pacific Islands also strengthen US influence in the region (leaders' participation in regional summits is important in this regard).

The regional groupings valued by participants will likely persist in the absence of the United States. It's already happened. When America abandoned its own flagship Trans-Pacific Partnership in the heat of the 2016 election, Australia, Japan and Canada resurrected it as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. While America refuses to enter into market access agreements, China is entering into new regional trade agreements and knocking on the door of the CPTPP.

Trade is of vital interest to countries like Australia, which have a major stake in the multilateral trading system. Every-man-for-himself pricing policies do not work and have perverse effects at the national level. Cost pressures and inflation will increase, putting other Americans out of work. Joe Biden has not removed the tariffs imposed by Trump on China and the trade deficit with China has widened. More tariffs mean more misery everywhere.

The rules-based world order is not an abstraction. American security relies as much, if not more, on an order that is not contrary to its interests, but also on the size of its armed forces or its nuclear arsenal. America's unique advantage over China lies in its network of allies and partners, a coalition of like-minded democracies that advocate for something other than narrow self-interest.

This advantage relies to a large extent on the intangible elements of American soft power, such as culture and values, which complement and legitimize the assertion of hard power. America sometimes fails to meet its own high standards, and no country has a monopoly on morality. However, in the long term, without a moral basis, the exercise of hard power is reduced to the law of the jungle.

Not all wisdom resides in Washington and Australia has much to offer.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/31/us-election-donald-trump-victory-australia-impact-anthony-albanese

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