The factors that led to Donald Trump's victory

This week on 60 Minutes, correspondent Scott Pelley examined the 2024 election, a runoff that saw former President Donald Trump sweep all seven battleground states and become the first Republican president in 20 years to win the popular vote . County by county, state by state, voters shifted to the right, even in demographic and geographic strongholds considered Democratic.

To understand the reasons for this widespread red shift, 60 Minutes spoke with Anthony Salvanto, CBS News executive director of elections and polling. According to Salvanto, three main factors explain voters' support for President-elect Donald Trump in this election.

The role of the economy

One of the most important factors in this year's elections is the economy, and specifically inflation. Throughout pre-election polling, Salvanto said, voters named it as the top issue, and Trump always had an advantage with those who said the economy was their top concern.

Salvanto said that when he pointed to evidence of the economy's strength, including steady GDP growth and low unemployment, voters told him their personal experience made them think otherwise.

“They saw that this was reflected in inflation, in higher prices at the grocery store and, for a long time, at the gas pump,” Salvanto said.

For Roz Werkheiser, inflation is as contagious as the pandemic that triggered it. Werkeiser, a restaurant manager in eastern Pennsylvania's Northampton County, said the rising cost of food has a direct impact on her customers. She said she voted for Trump in hopes that high-price fever would dissipate under his administration.

“The last four years have been terrible. They've been terrible,” Werkheiser said. “Credit card interest rates went up, electric bill went up, gas went up. TV and cable went up. I know all my bills went up.”

Werkheiser said she hopes Trump will lower credit card interest rates and eliminate the tax on credit card tips.

“Maybe that would help a little,” she said. “Those things maybe he can do. I hope he does.”

A stable MAGA base

That hope has led many people to look beyond Trump's history — including two impeachments, the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and legal challenges, including 34 felony convictions. Because these elements likely would have destroyed almost any other politician's support, Salvanto said the second factor in Trump's victory is the MAGA base that has always elevated him.

According to Salvanto, just under half of self-identified Republicans consider themselves members of the MAGA movement.

“This was a core part of the base that absorbed, repeated and believed his narrative that these were inherently political prosecutions,” Salvanto said.

An even higher number — nearly two-thirds of Republicans — have consistently said they believe the 2020 election was fraudulent, even though those claims have been exhaustively investigated and litigated and found to be baseless .

“And so it completed a narrative wherever [Trump] I’ve never seen any erosion from that base,” Salvanto said.

Democrats out of touch

For Rep. Susan Wild, Democrats have a lot of lessons to learn from this year's elections.

Wild, herself a Democrat, represents Northampton County, Pennsylvania, in Congress. At least she'll do it until January; she lost her re-election bid last Tuesday.

She told 60 Minutes that she believes her party remains the best option for the working class – but Democrats don't communicate as effectively.

“We are far too preoccupied with noble social issues,” Wild said. “And I'm sure someone watching this is thinking, 'Important social issues? Women's reproductive rights aren't just an important social issue.' What I mean is that if you're struggling to pay your rent or feed your kids, you don't have the privilege to think about things like LGBTQ rights unless you have someone in your family. own family who is personally concerned I don't have the luxury of thinking about reproductive rights.

Wild's story paints a picture of the third factor Salvanto says contributed to Trump's victory: the perception that Democrats are out of touch and unable to convince voters to care about the issues their party cares about.

He noted that Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign tried to make abortion rights a priority and rally women's support around the right. But even though abortion is an important factor for Democrats, Salvanto said, the level of support has never increased over time.

Instead, in the 10 states where voters could voice their opinion on abortion rights this year, Harris often received fewer votes than the ballot measure.

“A lot of Republicans voted for Donald Trump and the reproductive rights side of these amendments,” Salvanto explained.

The other aspect of the democratic divide concerned cultural and societal issues. Salvanto said polls revealed a divide within the electorate, with some voters believing efforts to promote gender and racial equality in the United States were going too far. Those who think this way voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, Salvanto said.

Regardless of why voters decided to support President-elect Trump, over the next four years it will be his choices that will reveal the impact of this year's shift to red. For restaurant manager Roz Werkheiser, it is very important that Trump keeps the promises that pushed voters to return him to the White House. “I think he's going to try to keep most of them, yes. I definitely do,” she said. . “Really.” The video above was produced by Brit McCandless Farmer and edited by Scott Rosann.

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British farmer McCandless

Brit McCandless Farmer is a digital producer for 60 Minutes, where her work has been recognized by the Webby, Gracie and Telly Awards. Previously, Brit worked for CBS Weekend Evening News, CBS This Morning, CNN and ABC News.

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