Could Trump's return to the White House be an opportunity to strengthen ties between the United States and Turkey?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate US President-elect Donald Trump on his election victory in early November.

President Joe Biden did not receive Erdogan at the White House, although the two men met on the sidelines of international summits and spoke by telephone.

Speaking to journalists accompanying him after his visits to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, Erdogan expressed hope for improved relations with the United States, adding, however, that in-person meetings would be necessary to achieve that. objective, and that Ankara must wait to see what kind of relations. of a Cabinet that Trump forms.

The two leaders enjoyed a close personal relationship during Trump's first term. However, bilateral relations have also been marked by difficult times under this administration. With Trump returning to the White House in January, analysts told VOA that while there may be opportunities for more cooperation in some areas, they do not expect major changes.

James Jeffrey, who served as U.S. ambassador to Türkiye from 2008 to 2010, sees Ukraine as an area with potential for cooperation.

Referring to Trump's promise to end the war in Ukraine, Jeffrey says Turkey could play a role in brokering a ceasefire, which would allow both sides to align on a relationship productive.

Alan Makovsky, senior fellow in national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, also believes that Trump's priority of ending the war in Ukraine creates a significant opportunity for Erdogan.

NATO ally Turkey has struck a careful balance amid the war in Ukraine, supplying armed drones to Ukraine while maintaining ties with Russia in energy and tourism.

Erdogan, who enjoys good relations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has long said neither side is winning from the war and has offered to host and mediate negotiations.

Disagreement over Syria

Disagreements between Turkey and the United States during Trump's first term included Ankara's frustration with American support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by the People's Protection Units of the Kurdish militia, known as name of YPG in northern Syria.

After a phone call with Erdogan on October 6, 2019, Trump unexpectedly announced that the United States would withdraw from Syria. Many American military officials, all caught off guard by this announcement, did not support this idea.

Tensions between the allies worsened after Trump sent a letter to Erdogan on October 9, warning him against a military incursion into Syria.

Following the announcement of Trump's withdrawal, Turkey launched a military operation in northern Syria targeting the YPG on October 9.

A ceasefire agreement was reached during then-Vice President Mike Pence's visit to Ankara on October 17.

Today, some in Ankara expect the United States to reconsider its presence in northern Syria during Trump's second term.

Jeffrey, U.S. envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2020, suggests the Trump administration could reevaluate this issue.

Every time people have managed to convince [Trump on Syria, it] is that the troops served a set of important purposes. It is one of the least expensive and most cost-effective military deployments. We keep the Islamic State under control. Second, we hold vital ground, blocking Iranian, Assad and Russian ambitions, he told VOA.

Washington has long asserted that its partnership with the SDF is necessary to sustainably defeat ISIS and counter Iran.

Ankara views the YPG as a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, which U.S. officials have also designated a terrorist organization.

Trump nominated Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, as secretary of state. Rubio was at the time one of the staunchest opponents of the US withdrawal from Syria.

He called the decision a catastrophic mistake that will have disastrous consequences far beyond Syria, urging Trump to reconsider it.

It will be necessary to see how this works and how Marco Rubio's views may have changed to align more with those of Trump or vice versa, Makovksy said. But anyone who thought that Trump's election meant that the United States would soon withdraw from Syria should certainly rethink that view in light of Rubio's nomination. I think this makes our withdrawal from Syria unlikely.

Trump's nominees for cabinet posts will need Senate approval before taking office.

F-35 program

Turkey's purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, which prompted Washington to withdraw Ankara from the F-35 joint fighter jet program, has complicated relations between the United States and Turkey in the during Trump's first term.

The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence-gathering platform that would be used to learn about its advanced capabilities, a White House statement said upon delivery of the system in July 2019, explaining the U.S. decision to withdraw Turkey from the project.

In December 2020, the Trump administration sanctioned Turkey under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Turkey, which has since requested the lifting of CAATSA sanctions, has resumed discussions with US officials on a possible return to the F-35 program.

Analysts say that while it is likely that CAATSA sanctions will be lifted during Trump's second term, any solution to the S-400 problem that is not permanent would not technically be acceptable to the U.S. military.

Describing the F-35s as the largest US military project since World War II, Jeffrey said: “A permanent solution is for them to [the S-400s] leave, they are sold to someone else. I wish there was a solution, but technically I don't think there is.

Makovsky called Turkey's return to the F-35 program unlikely in the short term.

If they completely get rid of the S-400s and actually relinquish possession of them as the law requires, there might be a reasonable chance for the F-35, he told VOA. But it will be up to the so-called Four Corners, the chairman and ranking members of the House Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to decide.

This story originated in VOA's Turkish service.