Covid: The second wave is here-but how bad is it?

The warning from the Prime Minister and his senior officials at a television briefing on Wednesday was harsh.

Things they said, Heading in the “wrong direction”, leaving Britain in a “crisis moment”.. Infectious diseases are on the rise, and hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise.

There is no doubt that the second wave is really here now. What we haven’t seen yet is how bad it is.

Britain is not on the orbit of the end

Last week, Chief Scientific Advisor Serpatrick Valence said Britain could face 50,000 proceedings a day by mid-October If the rise seen in late August and September continued.

This is based on a case that doubles every 7 days. However, while the situation is a bit muddy due to ongoing problems when people access the tests, it’s already clear that we’re not on track.

Official surveillance programs run by the National Bureau of Statistics, including random tests, suggest that the proportion of cases found is declining.

But of greatest concern are the local peaks in the northwestern and northeastern parts of England, where infection rates are much higher.

Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle infection levels are nearly 10 times higher than average.

This was pointed out by Professor Chris Witty, Chief Medical Advisor, with more localized outbreaks in the first wave in other countries such as Italy, and outbreaks in almost every region of the country in the United Kingdom. I pointed out that.

This made it more likely to be “highly concentrated” in areas where the second wave was less, he said.

But cases are still increasing everywhere-and, as always, things can change rapidly.

Slow increase in hospital cases

Hospitalization is arguably a much better indicator than the case, given the test issues.

In addition, they are a measure of people who get seriously ill. Most people have only mild symptoms.

The orbit is certainly upwards, but not sharp and the numbers are far from the peak position.

In fact, the past few days have shown that the number of hospitalized people in the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland has declined. (The method of collecting data in Scotland and Wales means that there is a problem with including recent data.)

That doesn’t mean they won’t keep rising.

The French experience, where cases began to increase faster than in the UK, gives us some thoughts on what to expect: a gradual upward trend.

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, a medical research unit at the University of Oxford, says hospitalization seems to double every two weeks in the UK.

It will undoubtedly result in quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses in the coming months, he says.

But again, this is far from what was seen in the spring, when hospital cases temporarily doubled every five days.

What does this mean for winter?

It seems inevitable that the number brought to hospitals will continue to increase.

This always occurs with respiratory illnesses during this period. And sadly, the same thing happens to death.

Of course, some winters are worse than others.

Between December 2017 and March 2018, an additional 50,000 “winter deaths” occurred in England and Wales. This is more than what was seen for the rest of the year. Compared to the previous winter, more than 15,000 people died.

It was cold, there was a pathogenic strain of influenza, and the vaccine of the year was not particularly effective.

Most people expect this winter to be worse, given the circulation of new viruses that have a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable people in society.

Sir Mark Wahlberg, a former Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government, said that what happens next is “our actions” and how we all comply with the rules on social distance and self-isolation. I believe it is important.

However, the deadly sacrifices seen in the spring can and should be avoided, as there are other factors that imply that Britain is in a stronger position than earlier this year.

A combination of better treatment for serious illness, social distant measures introduced throughout society, and the fact that the UK is better prepared to protect the most vulnerable people.

While more tests and PPEs are available in care homes, vulnerable groups in the community are taking more precautions than when the UK walked blindly to the first wave. It is now quite clear that the virus was widespread before the alarm was issued in March.

Indeed, the odds are higher than they were six months ago.

This is a “small silver lining,” as Dr. Simon Clark, an infectious disease expert at the University of Reading, says.

But it does not undermine the fact that it will only get harder in the future.

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