“Hanker Down”: Fall Covid-19 Surge is here

As expected, the United States is currently working on a new Covid-19 surge. May overwhelm the hospital, To kill Thousands of Americans a day by January And leave Even young survivors with long-term complications..

“We recently dropped to a low in early September, with about 30,000 to 35,000 new cases per day. We are now back to (about) 50,000 new cases per day. , It will continue to rise, “Dr. Peter Hotez, director of the National Tropical Medicine Department at Baylor College of Medicine, said Tuesday.

“This is the fall / winter surge that everyone was worried about. And now it’s happening, especially in the Midwest, and the northern states have been hit hard — Wisconsin, Montana, Dakota. But it will soon be national. “

Nationwide 30 states According to data from Johns Hopkins University, there were more cases of Covid-19 last week than last week’s report.

And Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top US infectious disease expert, warned about certain states on Tuesday. Test positive rate, Says that it can be a good indicator of a sharp rise if the rate is ahead.

As of Tuesday, the national test positive rate averaged 5.1% over the past week. However, according to the COVID tracking project, this figure was above 10% in at least 13 states. Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

“We want to keep (rate) less than 3%, optimally less than 1%,” Forch, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at an event hosted by the National Institute of Pathology.

“We are starting to see many states far beyond that. This is often, in fact, always very predictive of a case recurrence. Historically, an increase in hospitalization, And it turns out that it will ultimately lead to increased mortality, “he said.

In Denver, recent cases have been “as high as the peak of the May pandemic,” Mayor Michael Hancock said on Monday.

He said hospitalizations are also skyrocketing and as numbers continue to grow, residents may face stricter Covid-19 restrictions.

In Wisconsin Field hospital opens this week To cope with the surge in coronavirus patients. The state recently reported a record high number of Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and daily deaths.

If Americans don’t turn the tide, America For a devastating winter..Institute for Health Metrics, University of Washington project More than 135,000 people in the United States can die within the next three months.

“This winter—November, December, January and February of this year—can be the worst of our epidemics,” says Hotez. “Get ready to hunt down.”

How Overwhelming Hospitals Affect All Patients

As seen throughout this pandemic, the proliferation of new Covid-19 cases can lead to increased hospitalizations and mortality in the next few weeks.

At least 10 states have reported record high Covid-19 hospitalizations since Friday, according to data from the COVID tracking project. Five of Arkansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wisconsin reported their records on Monday.

“Hospitals can be overwhelmed again,” said Dr. Lina Wen, a physician in emergency medicine. “And we’re not just talking about coronavirus patients who may have problems. It’s also about other patients who may come due to a heart attack, stroke, car accident, and really accept. You may find a difficult situation. “

Also, some US healthcare professionals do not yet have sufficient personal protective equipment and testing supplies, said Dr. Megan Lanny, an emergency medical doctor.

“We are very afraid that we are heading,” she said.

Hospitalizations are increasing nationwide, with 35,072 reported on Monday, and the number per day has increased relatively steadily since the recent low of about 28,600 on September 20.

13% increase in Covid in children-19 cases in 2 weeks

More children have been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.

Their latest Report found From September 24th to October 8th, the number of reported cases of children increased by 13% and more than 77,000 new infections were reported.

The report focused on data from the health sector in 49 states, New York City, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. According to the report, children accounted for about 10.7% of Covid-19 cases in the states that reported cases by age.

News arrives as many schools return to face-to-face instruction and overcome the challenges associated with new infections.

According to Fauci, there is no “universal” strategy for safely returning to the classroom.

The decision should be based on the prevalence of the infection within the community and the degree of surveillance required, Forch said.

“When a school is being prepared, when there is a plan, when everyone is wearing a mask universally, when testing a person with surveillance methods to expel an infected person from the system, and ( And) they said they were “faced with infected children and older students-it can work”.

Vaccine testing has been suspended, but it is fully anticipated.

Johnson & Johnson suspended advanced clinical trials of vaccines due to an unexplained illness in one of its volunteers, the company announced on Monday, while Americans were waiting for a safe and effective vaccine. did.

The drug company said Tuesday that it was not immediately clear whether the sick volunteers received the vaccine candidates or the placebo, and there was little information about the illness itself.

Johnson & Johnson said he learned of the illness on Sunday and immediately notified the independent Data Safety Oversight Board (DSMB) of the study considering the illness.

Matthew Mamen, Global Research Director at Johnson & Johnson’s Pharmaceuticals Division Janssen, said on Tuesday, “It’s not uncommon for a large study to develop an unexpected illness during that period. “. Announcement of company’s third quarter financial results.

As of Tuesday morning, the study was still blind. That is, neither those who take the drug or placebo directly nor volunteers know which volunteers receive which element of the study. He said the DSMB could “blind” the study to investigate the disease if needed.

Dr. Ashish Jha, director of public health at Brown University, said this type of suspension was not immediately relevant.

“This is perfectly anticipated and only reminds us of how ridiculous it is to try to achieve the political timeline of vaccination by November 3,” Jha said. of I want to release the vaccine to the public by the election day..

“The Johnson & Johnson trial is the largest vaccine I know of, with 60,000 people,” said Jha. “We expect several pauses within that trial.”

This is the second Phase 3 Covid-19 vaccine trial in the United States that pushes the pause button. AstraZeneca vaccine trials were suspended last month for Volunteer neurological complications.. The trial has resumed in other parts of the world, but remains suspended in the United States while health officials are investigating.