Covid: How close is the light at the end of the tunnel?

The largest vaccination program in UK history is under development. This week, several UK general practitioners will join major hospitals and begin offering jabs.

The plan is to immunize everyone over the age of 50 and young adults with underlying health. Then the rest of the population can follow. But how long does this take?

Immunizing 55 million people is a daunting task, although children are not considered jabs at this stage. It will take months, probably most of the year.

There is currently one vaccine approved for use. It is manufactured by Pfizer and BioNTech.

The UK was able to order 40 million doses of vaccine, enough to cover 20 million people, given the need for two doses.

Therefore, at least in the short term, the UK needs to approve the use of another vaccine.

Fortunately, regulators are evaluating two more benefits, including one created by US company Moderna. But the problem with that is that the UK has only been able to order 7 million doses, with the earliest supply in spring.

Therefore, there are great expectations for vaccines produced by Oxford University and AstraZeneca.

Already 5 to 10 million doses are waiting, with a total of 100 million orders. This is also sufficient for 50 million people and requires two doses. This should be sufficient for the entire population when combined with Pfizer Jab. next year.

Will it be approved? If not, it would be a surprise. The team behind it is confident that the complete data behind the clinical trial will meet all the criteria for approval when it is published in Lancet this week.

Much has been done from the fact that it does not seem to stop the infection as much as the Pfizer vaccine-70% vs. 95%-but doing both at levels close to 100% stops serious illness. That is. If people aren’t dead in Covid or have long-term problems, the most disastrous consequences of a pandemic are over.

In addition, the Oxford vaccine facilitates deployment. This is because it does not need to be stored in a cryogenic storage location like Pfizer, so it has strict rules for movement.

For example, the NHS cannot bring it to a long-term care facility, even though residents and staff are a top priority for vaccination, but the GP only takes three and a half days to use up the dose when delivered. There is none. According to one GP, this is a “logistic nightmare.”

Vaccine production is notorious for not always going smoothly.

Indeed, Pfizer already needed to reduce the amount expected to be delivered to the UK-it is shipped from Belgium.

Initially, 10 million doses were predicted by the end of 2020, but it is said that the government currently predicts only 5 million doses, and currently there are only 800,000 doses in the country. Health Minister Matt Hancock is aiming for “millions of vaccinations by Christmas.” Like a stretch.

The Oxford vaccine is manufactured in the United Kingdom, so the supply should be more reliable from that perspective. But production still depends on the right ingredients available, and the global competition for vaccine production is currently going well, so it would be surprising if that didn’t mean some problems along the way. That is.

Another potential hurdle is Brexit. Brexit without agreement can cause problems when importing all kinds of goods, especially through the route from Curry to Dover. The government says it has identified a safe route to bring essentials into the country. But concerns clearly remain.

It’s a combination of all that Dr. Richard Votry, GP leader of the British Medical Association, says supply is probably the biggest “risk factor” to unfold.

He says GPs are “confident” with enough vaccines and their practicing nurses can vaccinate millions of people a week.

Large-scale vaccination depends on positive people. Many are afraid to achieve good intake-it is not compulsory, as people may refuse to be vaccinated.

Ipsosmori and King’s College London I saw this in the summer.. Their survey of more than 2,000 adults reported that only half of them plan to be vaccinated.

But the truth is a little subtle. With the addition of those who said it was quite likely, that number jumped to nearly three-quarters.

In addition, older people were least likely to avoid the vaccine.

Not surprisingly, as they are at greatest risk. There are more than 9 out of 10 deaths over the age of 65. This is a very important issue when it comes to vaccine programs, how quickly they return to normal.

There are 12 million people over the age of 65. When a significant number are vaccinated, the risk of overwhelming the NHS is eliminated and the excess mortality seen in the entire population is reduced.

How long does it take? By the way, GP has been able to vaccinate people over 65 years old with influenza in just over two months this fall. 77% participated in the jab.

Influenza vaccination is given in a single dose, but doctors will fully vaccinate anyone over the age of 65 who is willing to be vaccinated by the end of March, if available. I think I should be able to complete it.

After that, the restrictions will be significantly relaxed. Or at least the trigger option is provided.

This is what Professor Chris Whitti, Chief Health Officer of the UK Government, called “risk mitigation” when he appeared in front of a member of the Health Task Force this week.

He argued that just as 7,000 to 20,000 people die from the flu each year, the level of death and illness caused by Covid can quickly reach a situation where society is at “acceptable” levels. ..

It will allow them to gradually move away from the strictest restrictions, he says, probably only requiring a little continuous social distance and wearing a face cover in some settings.

Spring may not be the end of the pandemic, but it should certainly be the beginning of the end.