It will be chaos: how Trump is creating the conditions for a post-election blowout | Donald Trump

A bloodbath. The end of democracy. Riots in the streets. Chaos in the country. Donald Trump has made apocalyptic imagery a defining part of his presidential election campaign, warning his supporters that if he does not win and avoid criminal prosecution, the United States will enter agony.

The catastrophic prophecies, repeated ad nauseam during rallies and on social networks, raise fears that the former president is creating an electoral powder keg that could explode in November. Although there have been many comments weighing the implications of a Trump victory, some experts warn that a Trump defeat could pose an equally severe stress test for American democracy.

Whether Donald Trump wins or loses, there will be violence, said Michael Fanone, a retired police officer who was seriously injured by pro-Trump rioters at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. If Donald Trump loses , he won't do it. concede and he will incite people to commit acts of violence, just as he did in the weeks and months leading up to January 6, 2021.

If he wins, I also believe that his supporters will commit violence, targeting people who have already tried to hold him accountable, whether members of the press, ordinary citizens like me, officials of the Department of Justice, state and federal governments. prosecutors. I believe him when he says he will have his revenge.

Trump has long sought to sow distrust in the electoral system while using rhetoric beyond the bounds of modern political discourse, dehumanizing opponents and immigrants and portraying the United States as a nation on the brink of collapse. collapse.

During his first campaign for president, in 2016, he encouraged his supporters to knock out protesters and said he would pay their legal fees if they got in trouble. If he were denied the presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, he warned: I think you would cause riots.

In the summer of 2020, Trump reportedly called on the military to shoot peaceful protesters in Washington during the Black Lives Matter protests. When he challenged his election defeat that year, he suggested that an unfavorable ruling by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court would bring violence to the streets.

Then, at a rally before his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, Trump said: You will never take back our country with weakness. If you don't fight like hell, you won't have a country anymore.

After the FBI raided his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in August 2022, he predicted terrible things were going to happen, then quoted South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham warning of riots in the streets if Trump was indicted.

Michael Fanone gives a speech denouncing political violence in January. Photograph: Léa Millis/Reuters

Since declaring his candidacy in November 2022, Trump has escalated his inflammatory and racist statements throughout the election campaign. He promised to pardon the January 6 insurrectionists, suggested that General Mark Milley be executed, and claimed that immigrants who are in the United States illegally are poisoning the blood of our country.

At last year's Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump said: This is the final battle, they know it. I know it, you know it, and everyone knows it, that’s it. Either they win or we win. And if they win, we no longer have a country.

He has threatened potential death and destruction if he is indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney over a secret payment and has criticized those who urge his supporters to remain peaceful, ranting on his Truth Social platform: OUR COUNTRY IS DESTROYED, LIKE THEY TELL US. PEACEFUL!

In November, at a rally in New Hampshire, he promised that he would eliminate the communists, Marxists, fascists, and radical left thugs who live like vermin within the confines of our country. In January of this year, back in New Hampshire, Trump told his supporters: “I just want to be a dictator for one day.

Addressing efforts to remove him from the ballot under the 14th Amendment, Trump warned that if we don't, [get treated fairly], our country is in great difficulty. Does everyone understand what I'm saying? I think so. And referring to the 88 criminal charges that could dash his electoral chances, he said: I think they think that's the way they're going to try to win, and that's not the way it happens. There will be chaos in the country. This is a very bad thing. This is a very bad precedent. This is the opening of a Pandora's box.

Campaigning this month in North Carolina, Trump claimed that Biden's immigration policies amounted to a plot to overthrow the United States because, in his view, they allowed millions of people to cross the border with Mexico.

History has shown that Trump's words are taken both seriously and literally by his base. Hannah Muldavin, a former spokeswoman for the congressional committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack, said: “We know when Donald Trump says something, whether it's in a tweet or in a speech, his supporters say it. listen.

This is what we saw on January 6. His tweet Be there. It will be wild! This led to an increase in online activity that caused people to organize and come to Washington on January 6th. When Trump uses this inflammatory language, it is disturbing.

Last week, alongside a Republican Senate candidate in Ohio, Trump again spoke of illegal immigrants in the country in inhumane terms. In some cases, they are not people, in my opinion, he said. But I'm not allowed to say that because the radical left says it's a terrible thing to say. They're animals, okay, and we have to stop them.

At the same rally, Trump warned: If I am not elected, it will be a bloodbath for everyone, it will be the least I can do. This is going to be a bloodbath for the country. At the time, he was discussing the need to protect the auto industry from foreign competition, and Trump and his allies later said he was referring to the auto industry when he used the term. Biden's campaign team rejected that defense.

Once again, Trump has crossed boundaries and broken conventions like no other politician in his lifetime. Daniel Ziblatt, a political scientist at Harvard University and co-author of How Democracies Die, said: Since 1945, I don't think there has been a single politician in a democracy who has ever used such authoritarian language. It's hard to think of anyone. Viktor Orbn and Vladimir Putin when running for office don't use the kind of language that Donald Trump uses, so that's pretty remarkable.

As historical examples around the world have shown, such language can create a permission structure for violence. Ziblatt added: Whatever happens, efforts will be made to deny the results of the election if he loses. My best-case scenario is a decisive defeat, so his claims of a stolen election are simply not credible. But if this ends, as all indicators seem to suggest, then I would expect violence and threats of violence and at least protests of the type we've seen in 2021.

Opinion polls suggest another close race. Many have given Trump a narrow lead, and in the bars and cafes of Washington, DC, it is not difficult to hear idle chatter predicting a Trump victory as more likely than not. This, combined with Trump's exaggerated projections, raises the possibility that his supporters will take victory for granted and assume foul play if, in fact, he loses again.

Trump supporters at a rally in North Carolina this month. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: Donald Trump is engaged in a disinformation campaign to both make his supporters believe that he will win, that he is ahead, that he is in the bag, and also to set the conditions to claim that the election was stolen if he does not win. Obviously these polls are distant and not predictive, but he is clearly now using them to set conditions.

In an early glimpse of Trump supporters' aggressive response to defeat, Charlie Kirk, a far-right political influencer, told an audience at a church event last week: I want to make sure that we let us all commit that if the elections do not go as we wish, the next day we will fight. This is a very important thing; a lot of people don't want to hear that. They say: What do you mean it’s not going our way? It has to go our way. We must win. I agree.

Trump's divisive rhetoric and election denialism in 2020 culminated in the attack on the U.S. Capitol. But members of Congress returned that evening to certify Biden's election victory, and Trump reluctantly left the White House two weeks later. This time, Biden is the incumbent president and Trump has no control over the levers of government, making a repeat of the insurrection in Washington less likely.

Ezra Levin, co-founder and co-executive director of Indivisible, a progressive grassroots movement, said: Trump is already spreading lies that this election is rigged and we know there is no realistic scenario in which he concedes after losing.

A big difference between losing this year and 2020 is that this time they are better prepared and have already undergone a dress rehearsal. But the other big difference is that he won't be a sitting president, he'll just be a sore loser whom the nation rejected in record numbers in two straight elections.

Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington and a former policy adviser to President Bill Clinton, added: What I fear is that the repetition of violent speech will lead to the normalization of violent acts. . There is no sugar. This is a dangerous time for American constitutional government.

Ultimately, institutions are no better or worse than the men and women who are sworn to defend them, and if they do their duty, everything will be fine. If they are attacked or paralyzed by fear, then there is a chance they will not hold out. It's more than likely that it won't happen, but this election will be the ultimate stress test.

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