Don't be shocked if Robert Jenrick beats Kemi Badenoch in the Tory leadership race

Bookmakers and many observers have almost abandoned the subject. Conservative leadership final as a competition, with Kemi Badenoch now the hot favorite to replace Rishi Sunak.

But history shows that Conservative leadership elections are often far from predictable, whether in the first rounds, where MPs reduce the number of candidates to two, or in the second round, where members of the party have their say.

Ms Badenoch's rival Robert Jenrick only reached the final thanks to clever tactics aimed at persuading MPs to switch from his old position to him. Home Secretary James Cleverly. He was also seen to have performed poorly in the GB News debate and a recent ConHome poll suggested Ms Badenoch had support 55 per cent to 31 per cent.

Everything seems to be in the bag for Mrs Badenoch, But despite this, there are a number of reasons why Mr Jenricks' supporters remain very confident.

1. Favorites often lose

Just look at the previous round of the competition, where Mr. Cleverly was a surprise loser despite having a substantial lead in the previous round.

Cleverly had been so relaxed about reaching the final that he had even attended Boris Johnson's book launch party the night before, instead of phoning in.

Tactical voting has plagued Conservative leadership contests, and on several occasions the frontrunner found himself abandoned. The race leaders who lost their lead are Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, David Davis, Boris Johnson (at the first attempt in 2016) and Rishi Sunak (in 2022).

2. Jenricks' work ethic

There is no doubt that Mr Jenrick hit the ground earlier and harder than any of his five rivals at the start of this competition.

By the time the final runoff began, he had already visited more than 150 constituency parties and attended almost every election campaign.

Ms Badenoch took a family holiday at the start of the campaign and so initially trailed Mr Jenrick. But more to the point, unlike him, she has a shadow ministerial portfolio, which means she has to divide her time between campaigning and holding the government to account.

This means Ms Badenoch has failed to travel to as many parts of the country as Mr Jenrick and there have been complaints about replacements being sent to the election.

3. Conservatives seek right-wing policies

While Ms Badenoch enjoys the support of the Conservatives' main left-wing voice, Damian Green, the former chairman of the One Nation group, Mr Jenrick has deliberately attacked right-wing politics, with party members clearly frightened by Nigel's success. Farage and reform.

His support for leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) has even seen leading members of the party's left, such as former Health Secretary Victoria Atkins, backing him.

In contrast, Ms Badenoch has deliberately avoided policies other than pledging to cancel VAT on private school tuition fees. She believes it is dishonest to have firm policies so far from the elections.

4. Give power back to the members

Mr Jenrick also led the way in reforming the party by pledging to give ordinary members far more of a say in choosing their candidate and even electing the chairman.

This issue has become much more problematic in recent years, with a feeling that Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) has become authoritarian and too powerful, taking away members' choice over who their local candidate is. Perhaps the lowest point came at the last election when party chairman Richard Holden won himself Basildon and Bilericay in a shortlist of candidates.

5. Nobody really knows the conservative electorate

While it is easy to follow some conservative members on social media, many of them are older and many are not even regular internet users. Surveys conducted by brands like ConHome therefore have a limited scope.

This is in many ways the biggest problem when it comes to predicting who will be on the inside. Both candidates come from the right of the party which, in theory, will attract an audience generally seen as more right-wing than the party's elected MPs.

Additionally, many members don't even attend events. It is therefore difficult to say who will support the less active membership card holders.

The winner of the competition will be revealed on November 2 at 11 a.m. The Independent will have full coverage.