What does Donald Trump's victory mean for the climate? DW 09/11/2024

President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his views on climate change. During his first presidency, from 2017 to 2021, he repeatedly expressed doubts about its origins in human behavior, calling it a “hoax.” Campaigning for a second term, he called it “one of the greatest scams of all time.”

So, now that he has been elected to a second term, what does the climate hold for us in the new Trump era?

Global climate efforts are at stake

“Trump’s victory poses a real obstacle in the global fight against climate change,” said Alice Hill, a senior fellow at the independent think tank Council on Foreign Relations. “Under President Trump's leadership, the United States will almost certainly withdraw from global and domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby increasing fossil fuel production.”

2024 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record and the first year above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), according to a new report from the EU's Copernicus climate change service. And scientists have long been sounding the alarm about the need to halve our planet's heat emissions by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe.

Achieving this goal requires working together. But experts warn that Trump's “America First” policies do not go hand in hand with global collaboration on climate action, even though the United States is currently the world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. greenhouse after China, and the largest historical emitter.

“Drill, baby, drill!” »

Before the election, Trump pledged to increase domestic production of fossil fuels, focus more on oil and gas, and spend less on clean energy.

“Donald Trump and his supporters clearly believe that oil and gas are truly essential to America's global power and should not be trifled with,” said Clarence Edwards, executive director of the Office of Washington from E3G, a nonprofit think tank that works on the topic. the intersection of climate and geopolitics.

Trump wants to boost the American oil and gas industriesImage: Robyn Beck/AFP

During its first term, the Trump administration encouraged increased oil and gas drilling, including in protected areas like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, and championed the construction of pipelines like Keystone XL and Dakota Access.

Even before the election, Trump had hinted that he would continue this trend if he won. But Edwards said that doesn't mean renewable energy will disappear entirely, just that the new administration will focus more on hydrocarbons.

What does a second Trump term mean for the Paris Agreement?

Trump's victory comes just days before the start of the UN climate conference, COP29, in Azerbaijan. During his first term, the president-elect withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, which pledges to keep global temperature rises well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Former US Secretary of State John Kerry signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, but Trump withdrew the US from the international treaty during his first term as president Image: ABACA/picture alliance

Trump's withdrawal from the treaty was a major point of contention at the time, and although the United States returned to it under current President Joe Biden, Edwards believes the new president will likely do the same thing again. new.

“That would be the wrong signal to send. It's important that the United States respects its agreements and is an engaged global actor,” he said, adding that if Trump withdraws from the Paris Agreement again, it would raise questions about others. international climate commitments.

Implications for environmental policies

During his first term, Trump rolled back dozens of Environmental Protection Agency regulations, loosened restrictions on carbon emissions from power plants and vehicles and weakened rules governing pollutants like methane.

Barry Rabe, professor of environmental policy at the University of Michigan, predicts further dilution of environmental rules.

“There are a number of things that Mr. Trump has said during this campaign about trying to push the limits of executive or presidential power beyond traditional norms, like seizing funds, which we don't give normally not the president has the power to do,” he said.

Rabe also anticipates a return to more lax regulations that would likely mean the United States could not meet its 2030 climate goals.

“The United States is going to fall significantly short of this target on carbon dioxide, but also on methane and most other greenhouse gases,” he said.

What will become of the IRA?

While some fear that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a climate bill signed by Biden that invested hundreds of billions of dollars in renewable energy deployment, electric car production and battery manufacturing, will not is at stake under Trump, Edwards doesn't believe it. be like this.

The number of electric vehicles in the United States has increased in recent years Image: Rishi Deka/ZUMA Press/photo alliance

“He has had enormous success in boosting clean energy manufacturing and creating jobs across the country, particularly in so-called red zones. [Republican Editor’s note] “The United States, which receives about 70% of the investments from the Inflation Reduction Act, so I think there will be an effort not to repeal the IRA in its entirety, but to modify it by sections,” he said.

And Rabe agrees. “In reality, it would take an act of Congress to completely repeal the IRA.”

He added that regarding the IRA provisions, “it would not be surprising to see a Donald Trump return to the Oval Office trying to stop or slow down spending on funds authorized by Congress that he didn't like it.”

Environmental impact of the Trump 2025 project

Before the election, a group of conservative organizations and think tanks developed a controversial document called Project 2025, a series of policy proposals and strategic recommendations for a second Trump presidency.

The document promotes the continued development of the U.S. fossil fuel industry, advocating for increased production of oil, natural gas and coal as well as fewer restrictions on the extraction and construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure.

A report finds that if Trump adopts the energy and environmental policies outlined in the document, it could add four billion tons to the country's emissions by 2030.

The severity of extreme weather events like hurricanes, floods and storms has increased due to rising global temperatures. Image: Ricardo Arduengo/REUTERS

That would be the equivalent of almost another entire year of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere by the United States.

That would prevent the United States from meeting its goal of cutting emissions in half by 2030, which scientists say is vital to avoiding disastrous climate change.

It's not all gloom and doom

“However, this outcome does not represent the ultimate solution for climate action in the United States,” said Hill of the Council on Foreign Relations, emphasizing the power of state-level action and the progress already made in some cases . . “Local policy and regulatory intervention will be essential in the fight for a healthier planet, with or without the support of the Trump administration.”

Edwards said it's critical that people work together and continue to make progress.

“It sounds fanciful, but I think it’s important to have a real bipartisan dialogue about what we need to do on climate,” he said. “We will not have long-term sustainable climate policy in the United States without bipartisan consensus.”

Louise Osborne contributed to this report.

Edited by: Tamsin Walker

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