Impact of Trump 2.0 on the Muslim world

Will Donald Trump continue his America First policy as during his previous term or a more tolerant policy towards Muslim nations in particular?

Asad Mirza

DONALD TRUMP regained the presidency of the United States after a four-year absence, becoming the 47th American president and signaling a return to his approach of prioritizing the interests of the Americas and evaluating alliances based on strength and of the alignment of other nations.

Leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman could expect smoother negotiations with reduced scrutiny, while Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to welcome a familiar and supportive ally in Donald Trump. However, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky could face challenges as Trump tends to prioritize countries that align with U.S. policies or demonstrate strength. The same rule could apply to its future relations with China's Xi Jinping.

Besides world leaders who will be seen as friends or foes in Trump's world, India and several other countries will likely be seen as winners with his return to the White House, but the biggest test of his presidency will be reestablish ties with Muslim nations, most of which have become more anti-American over the past four years.

Among Muslim nations, the United States' most obvious and longest ally is Saudi Arabia. But under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, Trump would certainly like to revive efforts toward a long-awaited security pact. Trump, who played a key role in the Abraham Accords that established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries, is expected to focus on expanding that framework to also include Saudi Arabia.

If Trump succeeds in brokering a peace deal between Israel and the kingdom, it could pave the way for the United States to extend its security support to Saudi Arabia. This would allow the kingdom to focus on economic development and reduce concerns about potential threats from Iran.

Another Muslim country to watch for a revival in bilateral relations would be Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may hope for improved relations under Trump's presidency. Erdogan and Trump enjoy friendly relations, and Trump's return could provide Erdogan with more direct access to Washington.

Trump's anti-war stance and focus on trade could benefit Erdogan, but his criticism of Israel could create tensions. Additionally, Turkey's recent moves to strengthen ties with China could present challenges to balancing its relationship with the United States.

Iran, another dominant player in Middle East politics, has so far downplayed the impact of Trump's return, but his presidency closes the door on diplomacy over its nuclear program, which Tehran hoped could lighten its economy hit by sanctions.

A strong supporter of Israel, Trump applied a policy of maximum pressure toward Iran during his first term. He could further isolate Iran by strengthening U.S. sanctions it had previously imposed. However, Trump will face a different region, as Iran has recently strengthened ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which have supported the maximum pressure approach.

Iranians' livelihoods will not be affected by the US elections, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters after a Cabinet meeting in Tehran. The American elections are none of our business. Our policies are stable and do not change depending on individuals. We have made the necessary forecasts before and there will be no change in people's livelihoods, she said.

When it comes to the Palestinian issue, how Trump would handle the war in West Asia is less clear. Her unwavering support for Netanyahu would certainly give her greater influence over him than a faltering Joe Biden administration had. Using this to advance an initiative he launched with the Abraham Accords will be a formidable test of his deal-making abilities.

He supported Israel in its fight against Hamas in Gaza, but urged it to end its offensive. Trump can be expected to continue the Biden administration's policy of arming Israel. Trump has claimed he will bring peace to Ukraine, curb China's unfair trade practices, force allies to pay and prevent further shocks like the October 7 attacks in Israel, all because policymakers around the world fear what he will do if they defy him. .

Regarding other Muslim countries, the United States is assured of continued relations with other regional powers such as Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi congratulated Trump on his election victory, Jordanian King Abdullah II also extended his congratulations to President-elect Trump, according to a message posted on his X account. The President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, sent a congratulatory message to Trump on his victory.

Other Muslim countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia also played the usual tune of bonhomie in congratulating the new US president-elect. Afghanistan expressed hope that there would be concrete progress in relations between the two countries and that the two countries would be able to open a new chapter of relations based on mutual interaction.

Noting that the 2020 Doha peace agreement signed under the previous Trump administration, which ended 20 years of occupation of Afghanistan, spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi said Kabul hopes that the incoming administration of Washington will take realistic steps in light of a balanced foreign policy. so that there can be a solid development, vis-à-vis relations, between the two countries. He also said: “Mr. Trump is expected to play a constructive role in ending the current war in the region and around the world, particularly in Gaza and Lebanon.”

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for a further strengthening of the US-Pakistan partnership. The head of Bangladesh's transitional government, Muhammad Yunus, also congratulated Trump on his victory.

Calling Trump a remarkable political comeback, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the United States remained Malaysia's largest source of foreign investment and a critical player in the Asia-Pacific region and Malaysia hoped that America would reinvigorate its engagement in the Southeast Asian region.

However, most of these congratulations are routine messages and no one can predict exactly the future direction of American foreign policy, because for another four years it will be led by a maverick, who usually does not get bogged down in realpolitik or problems, but in his own sense of profit. He can impose a ban on travelers from Muslim countries, as promised during his campaign, or, just like a statement made during the campaign when addressing Arab-American Muslims in Michigan, he can stop the supply of weapons to Israel, an unfathomable promise to keep, but with Trump you don't really know until after it happens, just like his re-election.

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Asad Mirza is a senior journalist and media consultant based in New Delhi. He writes on national, international and strategic affairs. The views expressed herein are those of the author and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them. He can be contacted at: [email protected]