New ties between Turkey and Egypt –

After a decade of hostilities, the two countries elevated their ties to a level of strategic cooperation during Al-Sisi's visit to Erdoan in Ankara in September 2024. The visit aims to strengthen cooperation in the areas of economy, trade and energy and could have an impact on the Middle East region.

Egypt and Turkey have recently overcome the hostility that characterized their relations over the past decade. The problems in bilateral affairs between the two countries became very serious after the coup against Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi in 2013 and the election of the current Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in May 2014. Morsi belonged to the The Muslim Brotherhood party, supported by Erdoanand his victory in 2012 led to a strengthening of relations with Turkey, in part thanks to the affinities between his party and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoans' AK (Adalet ve Kalknma) Party, both of which are rooted in Islamic political ideology.

President Morsi has been heavily criticized by al-Sisi and his supporters, who have mobilized media and public figures against Erdoan. The Turkish president was considered one of the main enemies of Al-Sisi since he supported the Muslim Brotherhood, designated as a terrorist organization in Egypt.

When al-Sisi replaced Morsi, Erdoan became one of the fiercest critics of al-Sisis's takeover, saying he would never recognize him as Egypt's legitimate leader. Both countries expelled each other's ambassadors and mutual relations deteriorated. Many members of Egypt's Islamist opposition have found refuge in Türkiye, from where they have worked for critical television channels, which often lead protests in Egypt against al-Sisi.

Other problems between Egypt and Turkey have emerged in recent years. One of them was concern over a possible Egyptian-Turkish conflict. military confrontation in Libya's civil war since Egypt and Turkey supported opposing sides in the war. In January 2020, Turkey intervened militarily to support Libya's UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and forces aligned with it. Egypt, in contrast, was against the GNA, which accepted the participation of groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and supported the rival administration in the east led by Khalifa Haftar. Tensions came to a head in 2020 when Turkish troops in Libya advanced east from Tripoli and al-Sisi declared a red line beyond which he would not allow Turkish troops to advance.

Another issue between the two countries was Turkey's intention to drill for natural gas in waters near Cyprus in 2019, while Egypt was considering striking its own deals with Cyprus to benefit from its offshore gas reserves.

Since 2020, relations between Egypt and Turkey have evolved and Cairo and Ankara have made a lot of efforts to take a new step in their relations. Egypt, facing an economic crisis, has started to think about the possible benefits of a better relationship with Turkey in the areas of business, trade, tourism and investment. Turkey, for its part, realized that it was isolated in the Arab world due to its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and began to change tactics towards a less ideological and more pragmatic foreign policy that devotes more energy to trade, diplomacy and soft power.

In recent years, economic reasons have prevailed in the hostilities between Erdoan and al-Sisi and pushed them to strengthen their relations at the political and diplomatic level. In July 2023, Egypt and Turkey restored their ties and reappointed their ambassadors in their respective capitals, expressing their hope that this would be the start of a new beneficial chapter between them.

The 4^th from September 2024 on Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi arrives in the Turkish capitalaccompanied by a large delegation of ministers, to meet his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoan. During Al-Sisis' visit to Ankara, the two leaders signed 17 agreements in the fields of commerce, energy and culture. Thanks to the two presidents, this visit will mark the beginning of a new phase of friendship between Egypt and Turkey and will strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries.

In fact, both countries play a central role in the regional context and can both benefit from bilateral cooperation. Taking advantage of its strategic position, Turkey is seeking to participate in key regional energy projects aimed at transporting Egyptian natural gas to Europe, as part of Western efforts to reduce their dependence on Russia.

Erdoan said Egypt and Turkey intend to advance their multidimensional relations through a win-win approach, pursuing the common goal of increase the volume of bilateral trade to $15 billion in the next five years. The Turkish president also said that Turkey and Egypt's contributions to regional peace and stability are of vital importance and stressed that the two countries maintain strong engagement in the Palestinian issue. The situation in Palestine appears, in fact, to be the international issue that al-Sisi and Erdoan discussed most during their meeting this month in Ankara. Both leaders focused on Israel's war on Gaza and the growing violence in the West Bank, which recently intensified with Tel Aviv launching a military campaign.

Regarding Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood, one of Egypt's biggest concerns, Ankara has since 2021 taken steps to reduce the presence of Muslim Brotherhood leaders in Turkey. Erdoan also asked some anti-al-Sisi satellite channels to stop broadcasting and asked some prominent exiles in Turkey to reduce their criticism of al-Sisi's regime.

Al-Sisi also spoke of the intention to work together to resolve the conflict in Libya, the question of gas exploration human rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and the civil war in Sudan. He added that Turkey and Egypt agreed on the need to maintain the unity of Somalia, referring to Somaliland's secessionist goals.

Following al-Sisis' visit to Ankara this month, Egypt and Turkey appear to have good reason to be optimistic about the future of their bilateral relations. There are many opportunities for the two countries to improve their relations in a way that could generate many economic benefits for both sides. For Turkey, one of the potential benefits of better relations with Egypt would be a possible Egyptian realignment with respect to the Greek position on maritime borders and possible gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. The field of energy will, in fact, be important in the future of relations between the two countries.

Dr. Tarek Fahmy, professor of political science at Cairo University, sees the normalization of relations between Cairo and Ankara as a crucial step also in regional developments. A strategic dialogue between Cairo and Ankara will lead to a qualitative change in the management of regional crises, notably cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean and the situation in Libya. The two presidents agreed on consultations to achieve security and political stability in Libya, stressing the importance of ending this protracted crisis by simultaneously holding presidential and legislative elections, eliminating illegal foreign forces and mercenaries and by dismantling armed militias. These measures will allow Libya to overcome its divisions and restore security and stability.

Regarding the war on Gaza, former US ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza said stronger relations between Egypt and Turkey could help reduce Israeli bombing of Gaza. Egypt has actually been attempting to play a leading mediation role between Israel and Hamas in recent years. Turkey, for its part, aspires to play a role role in mediation between the two and be a guarantor in a possible agreement on the political future of Gaza which would involve the guarantor countries. Following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, President Erdoan decided to cancel a planned visit to Israel. He also called Hamas a liberation group leading a battle to protect his lands and people. He never listed it as a terrorist organization and hosted senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri and Ismail Haniyeh.

Some analysts, on the contrary, remain skeptical that the rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could do much for the Palestinians in Gaza and have a significant impact in the region. Maged Mandour, an Egyptian political analyst, said that despite the general alignment between Cairo and Ankara on position regarding the war against Gaza, Egypt and Turkey have limited influence over Israel. Therefore, he believes it is unlikely that the new relations between Egypt and Turkey will be able to mediate between Hamas and Israel and stop Israeli airstrikes in Gaza.

Finally, according to Gulf Studies Coordinator Gokhan Ereli, an important future consequence of the Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement is the acquisition of Turkish drones in Egypt. In this way, Turkey can increase its role as a key supplier in the region's defense industry, providing a critical alternative to Western global competitors. Turkey's ability to provide drones to Egypt demonstrates growing partnership and alignment on regional issues and will strengthen Turkish and Egyptian foreign policy agendas.