Imran Khan's ordeal continues | Notice

The Pakistani political scene now finds itself at a crossroads. Over the past fifty years, major political actors have fallen into decline or are on the brink of irrelevance. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which dominated Punjab for nearly three decades and alternated comfortably between government and opposition, faces the most defining dilemma for its survival. His credibility began to erode when he entered into a submissive alliance with the military establishment to regain power. The move was seen as a betrayal of the party's ideology by grassroots supporters, unhappy with the leadership's pro-establishment approach since 2021. PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif's long stay in London , worsened the party's problems. party. During this period, the second tier of the PML-N leadership also dissociated itself from its vote bank.

At the same time, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), the dominant force in Punjab decades ago, has been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Despite the calculated maneuvers of Asif Ali Zardari and the youthful optimism of Bilawal Bhutto, the party's influence in the province collapsed after its poor performance in the 2013 elections. Attempts to regain relevance yielded little results, leaving the PPP at best a regional player, now confined to the province of Sindh alone. In contrast, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains the most popular party in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkh, even though its leader, Imran Khan, has been languishing in Adiala prison for more than a year.

In fact, popularity alone is not enough to ensure the longevity of a political party. The same goes for the PTI. With its baggage of organizational chaos, infighting and lack of governance capacity, the sustainability of the PTI is under serious threat. Although they have captured the imagination of the general public, his strained relationship with the establishment and his lack of strategic vision are the main factors contributing to Imran Khan's current predicament.

Poorly managed protests

Recent events have given a new turn to the political fortunes of the PTI. Once again, political missteps have cost the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) dearly, notably during its November 24-26 protest march demanding the release of its imprisoned leader, Imran Khan. Leading his first protest, Bushra Bibi, Khan's wife, allegedly ignored the lawyer and mismanaged the protest march to D-Chowk, the capital's infamous protest point, a decision that backfired spectacularly. A hasty retreat on the evening of November 26 by Bushra Bibi and Ali Amin Gandapur, chief minister of the PTI-ruled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, discouraged and demoralized PTI supporters.

This is the fifth protest march led by the PTI in recent months that has ended in disaster. For obvious reasons, the PTI leadership's recurring inability to manage expectations and prepare for contingencies has severely tested the party's morale. Turning the protest into a dramatic “do or die” moment exacerbated the consequences when the plan collapsed. Although the PTI made progress during the three-day march, the flaws in its strategy became glaringly apparent once the state flexed all its muscles. The party's overreach and unpreparedness underscored its political immaturity, leaving its loyal leaders and cadres saddled with the costs of yet another botched showdown in the capital. PTI's five attempts to free Imran Khan have failed miserably. The final effort on November 24 was proudly presented by Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, as the final march that would continue until his release. But the crowd was dispersed by state power within hours of reaching the D-Chowk designated for a long sit-in.

The PTI's so-called final appeal ended in failure as unexpected as it began in a chaotic, ill-prepared and unaccountable manner. On Tuesday evening, supporters gathered in Islamabad were abandoned by their leaders. Bushra Bibi, who had vowed not to leave D-Chowk without Imran Khan's release, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur are said to have fled to safer ground in KP, leaving a fractured base behind and disillusioned. This tendency to abandon one's own supporters has become emblematic of the PTI's political playbook. Party workers, driven by unwavering loyalty to Imran Khan, endured harsh conditions and aggressive security measures, clinging to promises of an imminent revolution and the restoration of their stolen mandate. Instead, they found themselves on the front lines, facing tear gas and rubber bullets alone.

Such incidents underscore a troubling reality: The PTI's transformational rhetoric is often undermined by its failure to provide leadership when it matters most, leaving its supporters stranded amid the fallout. The PTI's repeated abandonment of its workers reveals a troubling gap between its rhetoric and reality. Since Imran Khan's imprisonment, the PTI leadership, which has been subject to frequent reshuffles by Imran Khan himself over the past year, has been treating its most loyal supporters as mere pawns abandoned at every turn crucial for bearing the weight of repression alone. Today, a deep betrayal of trust is visible among PTI supporters.

Traumatized but defiant

The recent events in Islamabad reveal a blatant political failure, with the coalition government opting for unnecessary authoritarianism to silence dissent. In its overreach, it overlooked a fundamental truth: the essence of democracy lies in the capacity to accommodate protests, differences and coexistence within the constitutional framework. The PML-N's fiery rhetoric about avenging past PTI sit-ins amounts to immature political theatrics, while the PPP's silent distancing offers little exoneration from complicity in the consequences.

PTI workers, confined within the limits of the red zone and D-Chowk, were subjected to unwarranted repression. It should have been patience, not force. Allowing the protesters to disperse naturally in Islamabad's freezing winter while initiating a constructive dialogue with the PTI leadership could have avoided a bloody escalation. Instead, the Home Secretary's authoritarian approach has set a dangerous precedent, undermining legal political engagement. The aftermath leaves the PTI traumatized but defiant, vowing to continue its protests while the fundamental issues – the release of Imran Khan and recognition of the February 8 mandate – remain unresolved.

All stakeholders repeatedly ignore the lessons of history. The failure of the PTI revolution left the party bruised and lacking momentum. With its leaders retreating under pressure and the release of Imran Khan now a distant prospect, the protest strategy to lay siege to Islamabad has backfired spectacularly. What was meant to be a show of defiance has become a stark revelation of the party's limitations: its core strength is increasingly confined to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where it has governed for more than a decade.

The toll is grim: nine dead, including four members of the security forces, and numerous injured on both sides. Rather than advancing its cause, the PTI march seriously undermined it. The incursion into the capital has weakened Imran Khan and finds himself on shaky ground, eroding the influence he once had to negotiate his release. The establishment and, to some extent, the ruling coalition are now in a much stronger position. Now, after a botched protest campaign, the PTI is facing intense infighting and internal fissures, and many leaders, including the party's general secretary, are expected to desert the party in anticipation of a crackdown massive on the part of the government. There is a widely held view within the PTI leadership that the emboldened establishment will now tighten the noose around the PTI leadership. Therefore, we may see many PTI leaders leaving the party, especially in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, which failed to mobilize their supporters for the final march on November 24.

Damage has been done to the PTI and its disillusioned supporters are unlikely to support any protest campaign in the coming days. Their enthusiasm, ignited by promises of revolution, was effectively extinguished by disappointment. Exhaustion and disillusionment have enveloped the entire party, which is now faced with the harsh reality that Imran Khan will remain behind bars for the foreseeable future. The federal government, emboldened by its ability to manage chaos, is now stronger. The establishment has become more resolute, clearly signaling little tolerance for further maneuvers by the PTI. In this context, a thorny question arises: if this burst of effort could not guarantee the release of Imran Khan, what could? The dark answer inevitably becomes clear. Rather than triggering a revolution, the failure of the march deepened the PTI's internal fractures and political isolation. A sobering assessment remains: the PTI has lost the fragility of its national appeal at the cost of an ill-conceived protest strategy.

The Sabah Daily News Bulletin

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