Imran Khan's incarceration does not sound the death knell. He will not go on a diet

Former Pakistani Prime Minister and leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf party, Imran Khan is finally sentenced to 14 years in prison in a corruption case. The decision had been delayed by a few days, leading many to wonder whether this was due to ongoing negotiations between the country's powerful military and the PTI leadership, and whether Khan was about to get relief. The final conviction, in which the PTI leader's wife, Bushra Bibi, was also sentenced to seven years in prison, has certainly disappointed many supporters who remain unmoved by the judgment and will not even consider the merits of the case.

This conviction does not necessarily mean the end of the dialogue between the army and Khan. In fact, from an establishment perspective, the judgment aims to create space both externally and internally. He will use the sentence to engage with the rest of the world, particularly concerns that new US President Donald Trump could pressure Islamabad over Khanby, highlighting the legal process. Likewise, military leaders could use this case to push Khan to agree to their demands. If he wants to avoid prison, he must comply. If he accedes to Army HQ's demands, the decision could be overturned in a future appeal. Simply put, the army wants the PTI leader to settle down at his residence in Bani Gala, Islamabad, and wait patiently until the next elections are announced, which may be held in a few years.

Land, money and NCA

This particular case is important because, according to my sources at the National Accountability Bureau, Pakistan's main anti-corruption agency, it is the only one with evidence of Khan's involvement in financial mismanagement. The case involves real estate tycoon Malik Riaz, currently in exile in Dubai, transferring valuable land to the Al-Qadir Trust. Khan, his wife and his confidante, Farhat Shahzadi, better known as Farah Gogi, were the trustees of the trust.

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Riaz, known for bribing political parties and senior members of the military establishment, reportedly gave the land to Khan and his wife so they could open a university for spiritual education. The gift coincided with Khan's government authorizing the transfer of 190 million, previously frozen in Riaz's British accounts by the UK's National Crime Agency (NCA), to an account in Pakistan. This was done so that the real estate tycoon could repay a debt owed to the Supreme Court of Pakistan as part of a settlement in another case in which he was accused of illegally appropriating public land in the Sindh.

For a long time, it was rumored that the NCA had authorized the transfer of a private account to the Supreme Court account under a secret agreement with Shahzad Akbar, the tsar responsible for Khan, about whom the government has no knowledge. trace. The British government has never spoken of this affair or of a secret agreement. Akbar, with whom I spoke in London, denies any agreement between the government and Riaz, nor that the 190 million was seized by the NCA as laundered money.

Akbar claims that the NCA, which was tasked with freezing the accounts of Nawaz Sharif and his sons and investigating transactions including the sale of a 45 million property near Hyde Park, London, by the one of Sharif's sons in Riazhad, initially blocked a suspicious transaction from the UAE to an account held in the name of Riaz's son, Ali Riaz. Interestingly, Akbar, who was allegedly tasked by military intelligence to account for the former rulers, was unable to prove any wrongdoing in the initial purchase of the property by the Sharifs.

Meanwhile, the NCA has frozen other accounts held by Riaz and his family. In fact, the UK property tycoon's money was reported accidentally when that was never the real intention of the Khan government. However, as Akbar further claimed, since it would take a long time for the Pakistani government to help the NCA prove that Riaz had illegally laundered money from the country, the Akbar-led NAB encouraged the British NCA to let Riaz transfer the money to the country. Pakistan using his personal account. Prima facie, Akbar can claim that a money laundering case against Riaz was never proven by the NCA and that the money was returned legitimately so that Riaz could settle his legal costs. There was something definitely fishy about the way Akbar handled the matter by not allowing the NAB to investigate Riaz's transfers to the UK.

Interestingly, no government has ever wanted to investigate the tycoon's financial dealings. I remember my year at NAB in 2011, when the then Chairman of the Bureau, Admiral (retd) Fasih Bokhari, regularly visited Riaz even though he was prohibited from having personal contact with a “target” under investigation. At that time, Malik Riaz was one of the contacts between the then army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani and the Pakistan People's Party government.

Also read: Manmohan Singh saw the strategic trap that the Pakistani army set for India. He didn't fall for it

Tougher days for the government

Despite the fact that all suspects in the case Malik Riaz, Shahzad Akbar and Zulfiqar Bukhari, a senior PTI member, were declared offenders and never appeared in court to make a statement, the case and the The manner in which it was resolved by the Khan government remains suspect. Riaz, Bukhari and Akbar remain outside the country and refuse to return to Pakistan to make a statement, which itself constitutes a gap in the case likely to be discussed during the appeal.

The Al-Qadir Trust case concerns a Prime Minister who is unaware of a conflict of interest and is too sure of his good reputation without considering that the law of the country does not authorize any gift to a holder of a public office, even if it is a charitable organization. . And especially if it is accompanied by a benefit in return. On the other hand, Khan's self-confidence is not misplaced since his support base is not willing to believe in his complicity in any corruption affair. Despite the sentence, his supporters and millions of other Pakistanis listened to Khan accuse the government of being authoritarian as he walked out of court at the end of the sentencing.

Obviously, the negotiations between the army and the PTI leader have not made any progress. Media sources I spoke with say Khan cannot accept the option of sitting quietly at home because it would spell the end of his politics by saying he will not surrender to a corrupt and oppressive regime. On the contrary, this conviction means more difficult days for the establishment, which is unable to meet its difficult security challenges due to poor domestic policy. There are questions about whether the military can afford to keep Khan incarcerated for 14 years.

Ayesha Siddiqa is a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of War Studies at Kings College London. She is the author of Military Inc. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Opinions are personal.

(Edited by Ratan Priya)

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