Protests from Turkey: Erdogan faces the crisis of his life

Turkey attended widespread demonstrations, on a scale not observed in more than a decade, following the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu for corruption. The authorities have owned more than 1,500 people, including many journalists covering the demonstrations; A BBC journalist was even expelled from the country. A massive demonstration on Saturday called by the Popular Party of the Republican (CHP) of the opposition (CHP) saw hundreds of thousands of demonstrators going down the street to put pressure for early elections, three years before the schedule scheduled in 2028.

The president, the container Tayyip Erdogan, denounced the rallies, qualifying them as street terror. Those who distribute terror in the streets and want to set fire to this country have nowhere to go. The path they have taken is a dead end, he said.

The crash after a high

The uprising was a shock absorber, just coming when Erdogan climbed the glory of the stellar achievements of foreign policy. He had just won a huge diplomatic victory in Syria, a justification for his ten -year -old position on the country's civil war. With the eviction of Bashar Al Assad, the Turkiye protg, Mohammed Al Sharaa was installed in Damascus. Also in the Ukrainian conflict, Turkey has skillfully balanced its relations with Russia and Ukraine, benefiting from the two. And, in the Southern Caucasus, he took a firm footing by helping Azerbaijan to win a resounding victory over Armenia of the Arc-Rival during the Karabakh War. He played a successful role in the Somali civil war and also plays a decisive role in Libya. South and Southeast Asia have also seen an enlargement of the Turkish imprint under Erdogan. Last month, he concluded a successful tour of three nations in the region, where he signed lucrative trade agreements with Pakistan and Malaysia, as well as a historic defense agreement with Indonesia for the production of joint drones. And now, with American president Donald Trump threatening the Euro-Atlantic alliance, Turkey is filled with its great permanent army. At the same time, its soft power through literature, Sufi culture, TV-series and Erdogan Islamist orientation praised the country around the world.

Will the strong man bow?

Erdogan, who won five parliamentary elections and two presidential elections, is a clever politician who has perfected the art of survival and that of transforming any adversity into an opportunity for himself and his AK (justice and development) party, or “ AKP ''. This time, however, he can see that it is often easier to succeed abroad than at home. Although he has been in power in Türkiye for over 25 years, his grip on the country has become more and more autocratic and simultaneously tenuous. Admittedly, Erdogan and his party had won the general elections of 2023, but it was with a much thinner margin. The elections themselves have been controversial, its coalition not ensuring the 50%mark. His presidency had to be decided by runoff elections, in the end, his victory was spoiled by generalized allegations according to which fair and free campaigns had been prevented.

While positioning Turkey as the legitimate heir and heir to the heritage of the Caliphate, President Erdogan took Turkey on a path very different from that envisaged by the founding father of the Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The administration of Erdogan raised the rules prohibiting women from carrying scarves in the institutions managed by the State, with the exception of the judiciary, military and the police, ending a restriction of decades. He also tried to criminalize (without success) adultery and to introduce alcohol -free areas, to discourage family planning and to recommend larger families. Educational reforms have been launched, which prohibited Darwin's evolution theory of programs, while incorporating Islamic lessons. In 2020, Hagia Sophia cathedral in Istanbul was transformed into a mosque.

A lesson to learn

But nothing is even the Turkish weapons that are skyrocketed under the Dorting Chante of Erdogan in economic prosperity for the country. The economy remains slow, with an inflation of 44.38% in December 2024, a weakening of the LIRA and arrow prices. The media were censored and hundreds of disadvantages incarcerated.

The continuing highway of the administration has only fueled the support of the opposition, the manifesto of which has promised to put Turkey back on the path of secularism, to make a parliamentary democracy, to suppress the presidential system, to repair links with NATO, to prioritize relations with the West, to repair the economy and to guarantee the freedom of the press and the independence of NATO.

In the local elections held in March of last year, the CHP had become the main party for the first time in 47 years, winning 35 of the 81 provinces. The results sent shock waves to the Erdogan AKP party. In addition, Imamoglu, considered to be Erdogan's most powerful rival, is a more popular leader than the presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdagllu, was presented in 2023. Just after his arrest and in the midst of massive demonstrations, his university degree was revoked, which was necessary to contest elections (in Turkey, the presidential candidates are necessary to have a diploma academic to go to an office).

It remains to be seen if the current demonstrations in Türkiye will succeed in forcing the first elections. But the arrest of Imamoglu, which came a few days before the presidential primaries, could prove to be counterproductive. Here is something that Erdogan must keep in mind: the fall of his arc rival, Bashar Al Assad in Syria, began with the autonomous response of his administration to legitimate protests. A lesson to learn, maybe.

(The author is a journalist and political analyst)

Warning: these are the personal opinions of the author