Politics
Türkiye: the political crisis puts investors on board
Recep Tayyip Erdogans Unpredictability is one of the few things on which his supporters and criticism agree. For two decades as Prime Minister and President, he often made sudden and substantial decisions with little warning.
However, the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul on March 19, Ekrem Imamogluwidely, considered as a chief rival of Erdogans and the candidate probably of the opposition CHPS in the presidential race in 2028, even experienced observers. The accusations, widely considered to be politically motivated, have triggered mass demonstrations, arrests, a repression of the media and a ban on public gatherings.
Investors' benefits were rapid. Billions fled Turkey to news, and once again, investors have learned to fear the unexpected Ankara, said Charlie Robertson, analyst of emerging markets at Fim Partners. In a few days, the turkey market has plunged, LIRA fell and, on March 24, the Central Bank of Turkey (TCC) had burned $ 26 billion trying to stabilize the currency.
Many wondered if the crisis would derail the anti-inflation strategy carefully prosecuted by the Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek, Vice-President Cevdet Yilmaz, and the CBT, which had succeeded in restoring international trust after erratic policies before 2023.
Muhammet Mercan of ING Bank says it is important to keep things in perspective. He notes that the TCC responded to volatility with a complete strategy, in particular by launching FX sales linked to Lira demand to meet FX demand, increasing the 46%loan rate, suspending one -week rehabilitation auctions and issuing liquidity bills with deadlines up to 91 days.
The LIRA was the most attractive transport opportunity in the emerging markets, leading to significant long positions by foreign investors, which were largely unrolled. Nevertheless, the raw reserves of $ 171 billion on March 14 remain robust enough, he said, arguing that the TCC has the tools to maintain the stability of the FX.
Mercan plans to inflation of 2025 of 28.4% and growth of 3.2%, but admits the recent volatility composed by the challenges added by the American president prevails over economic policies, the risks of decrease for growth prospects.
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