The truth about Donald prevails over the Liberation Day

After weeks of nervous anticipation in the financial markets and in the commercial partners of the capital of the Americas, Donald Trumps Prices of the Liberation Day has arrived and, even according to his standards, they are shocking and varied. For decades, our country has been looted, plundered, raped and looted by close nations, told Trump on Wednesday to a White House crowd which included members of United Auto Workers, and also elected Republicans. After delivering an economic history in a pot of the country in which he said strangely that the great depression would have been avoided if high prices had been in place, Trump announced that reciprocal prices would come into force on April 9, with rates of thirty-four percent on goods imported from China, twenty-four percent on Japan and twenty percent on the European Union. Some of the highest rates were reserved for developing countries led by export to Asia: forty-six percent on Vietnam, forty-eight percent on Laos and forty-nine percent on Cambodia.

The announcement of the announcement was chaotic. Trump has long been obsessed with prices, of course, but recently, he has published mixed messages, at some point, suggesting that the new prices would be somewhat conservative. A few weeks ago, there were press reports that he had settled on a relatively close approach, targeting only countries that set up major trade surpluses with the United States, such as China and Japan. Last weekend, it appeared that universal prices, the kind he spoke of during the electoral campaign last year, was back on the table. No one knows what's going on, a source close to the White House told Politico. What are they going for? Who go price and at what rates? For example, very fundamental questions have not yet been answered.

In the end, Trump chose the whole option above. The new prices involve a ten -hundred sample on almost all imported goods, as well as higher samples from many individual countries. Trump said the prices were about half of the prices that these countries impose on American goods, but the details of how they arrived were immediately available. While many countries have higher rates than the United States, the differences are as important as Trump claims, especially for some of the allies of the Americas it has targeted. On a weighted basis depending on the trade, the average price of the United States is 2.2%, noted the posts of Washington Jeff Stein and David J. Lynch. Japan is 1.9% and European unions are 2.7%, slightly superior to the American average, according to the World Trade Organization.

The samples that Trump announced on Wednesday are distinct from those he has already imposed on steel, aluminum and abroad cars and parts. Overall, its prices represent a spectacular expansion of the most closely targeted tasks which it has imposed in its first floor of terms whose Biden administration has preserved and a last nail in the coffin for fitch ratings, the average American rate rate on all imports will only be twenty-two, for the American economy but for the global economy, Sonola said in a press release. Many countries will likely end up with a recession.

Certain accounts of the Trumps of Commerce approach, including mine, have identified William McKinley, the twenty-fifth president, as an inspiration. Other commentators have suggested that the Hitlers in Germany, who have pursued an economic policy of self -sufficiency or Autarky, could prevail over a real model. Wherever he obtained his love for prices and protectionism, the intellectual history of his approach date back to English mercantilist thinkers from the 16th and 17th centuries, who also considered trade as a zero -sum company in which one side wins and the other loses. Because we must have taken Hede that we have not been stranger than we sell them; Because we are sholding, we issue our self and enrich, an anonymous English author wrote in the fifteen fifty. The aristocrat William Cecil, principal advisor to Queen Elizabeth I, seemed even more Trumpian. Nothing Robbeth the kingdom of England, but when more goods are brought in the kingdom to go out, he judged.

At a time when trade was largely funded in gold and silver, mercantilists thought in terms of accumulation of wealth or treasure. Trump thinks in terms of dollars rather than gold, but little is based on this distinction. In his remarks on Wednesday, he repeated his unfounded complaint that Canada subsidized the United States up to two hundred billion dollars a year. (Commercial payments are not subsidies, and last year, the American trade deficit on goods and services with Canada exceeded a hundred billion dollars.)

After China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and inexpensive Chinese products were flooded in the United States, it has been widely shown that open trade with countries that have much lower labor costs can devastate certain communities and industries. For a long time, American economists have underestimated these costs, based on the argument of Adam Smith according to which trade is mutually beneficial because it allows each party to exploit its natural endowments and skills. (The famous example that Smith cited was Great Britain which exported the fabric to Portugal and the important Portuguese wine.) In Washington these days, the economic debate has largely evolved towards the gaps of free trade. Biden administration, for example, has quadrupled prices on Chinese electric vehicles and has provided generous subsidies for automotive companies that invest in the construction of electric vehicles in the United States.

The prices prevail are much wider, and they will affect many historical allies of the Americas. Inevitably, this has given rise to speculations on its ultimate objectives. In a document published immediately after last year's elections, Stephen Miran, an economist trained at Harvard who then worked for a hedge fund and is now president of the Council of Economic Advisors, linked Trumps' priceds to his first foreign policy in America, suggesting that they could be part of a great strategy to reduce the American trade deficit and national disdainment.

As Miran described it, Trumps Tariffs would work mainly as heating, that he could use to travel other countries to accept a devaluation of the dollar, which would make American exports more competitive, and refinancing of American national debt, in which foreign debt holders who have repeatedly counted for a new type of security: a year the American government cheaper to collect funds. Why would foreigners accept such an unfavorable agreement? Miran was not fully explained, but the inference is that they would not have a choice if they wanted to keep access to the US market and to military support. Miran described this potential rearrangement of the international trade system of Mar-A-Lago on the Plaza Agreement, in 1985, in which the United States, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom have agreed with a devaluation of a dollar on a voluntary basis. Like Martin Wolf, from the Financial Times, underlined it, the Trump version, if it happened, could be described more precisely as a protective racket.

Trump mentioned none of this on Wednesday. Instead, he said prices would attract manufacturers, create jobs and collect a lot of money in new income. But the use of prices as permanent sources of income comes up against the idea of ​​using them as a negotiation flu in future trade agreements. Another problem with the idea of ​​a Mar-A-Lago agreement, or something similar, is that any serious suggestion that the United States sought to refinance the twenty-five billion dollars of its debt which is owned by private investors could very well produce the mother of all cash and a major financial crisis.

The immediate political challenge for Trump is that, whatever the prospects for its policies, stimulate the manufacture of the United States in the long term, in the short term, they are likely to inflict two major voters of the Coalition GOP: the Maga voters of the working class and the Business Republicans.

While some of the Trumps supporters can encourage him for trying to protect industries and communities in which they work, they will now pay higher prices for everything, from Asian's imported clothes and electronics to Irish wines and Irish whiskey with built-in cars inside and outside the United States. The prices of twenty-five percent on foreign vehicles and automotive parts, which were announced last week, will come into force on Thursday. Daniel Roeska, analyst at Bernstein, estimated that they could increase costs for car manufacturers, which count on parts manufactured abroad, by seventy-seven hundred dollars per vehicle sold.

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