Trump may not have a good outcome from the Iran war

Summary Numerous polls show that Americans are increasingly doubtful that President Donald Trump can end the war in Iran with a clear victory for the United States. A majority of voters surveyed want to end military operations in Iran, even without a peace agreement. Only 20% of Americans have “a lot” of confidence in Trump to make good decisions regarding Iran.

The AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.

President Donald Trump’s war against Iran has not been a resounding success so far. And a large part of the American public expects that the end of the conflict – when it comes – will change nothing.

Polls in recent weeks paint the picture of an American public that is done with this situation. People didn’t like the war at first, they don’t think it will bring much good, and they don’t seem to expect meaningful concessions – or, at least, concessions worth making.

In short, no one really believes that Trump has a good outcome in this war.

Memorial Day weekend offers a glimpse of that perspective. There were some of the most significant signs yet of real progress toward an agreement to end the war. But as details were released, it became clear that they were entirely doomed to failure for many more hawkish Republicans. Some of these Republicans even warned that the deal could make Iran stronger than before the war.

And if Iran sticks to its hard line, it’s unclear what deal could allow Trump to save face and end the war before it becomes even more of a problem for the Republican Party.

Several polls suggest people just want it to be over.

A Fox News poll last week showed that only 39 percent of registered voters wanted U.S. military operations to last “as long as it takes to achieve U.S. objectives,” compared to 61 percent who instead preferred a “limited timetable.”

Similarly, a New York Times and Siena College poll showed that 52 percent of registered voters said the United States should end its military operations even if it fails to reach an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program.

Only 37% want to resume military operations if countries fail to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

And this latest poll and other data reinforce that Americans aren’t exactly optimistic about an acceptable deal. Instead, it seems they are likely to view whatever is produced with skepticism.

The Times-Siena poll indicates that only 22 percent think war would be “very effective” in eliminating Iran’s nuclear program — a program that, it should be reemphasized, the Trump administration already claimed was “wiped out” last summer.

(18% thought it would be “somewhat successful,” while 50% expected it to fail.)

Similarly, 65 percent of Americans were “not so confident” or “not at all convinced” that a deal ending the war would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons (which has been Trump’s repeated red line), according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

And nearly two-thirds were only “somewhat” or less confident in the administration’s ability to achieve its goals in Iran, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.

Even if a deal with reasonably favorable terms for the United States is reached, that doesn’t mean Americans are worth it.

According to the Times-Siena poll, 55 percent to 21 percent of registered voters said the war would not be worth the price.

Polls also consistently show that Americans believe the war will be counterproductive on several fronts. The post-ABC poll showed Americans saying:

61%-11% that the war has increased the risk of terrorism against Americans 56%-12% that it has risked weakening relations with the United States 49%-21% that stability in the Middle East will deteriorate

Even if Trump defies all odds and manages to secure a favorable deal for the United States, he faces another crucial problem: Americans no longer trust him on this issue.

The most recent CNN poll, for example, shows that only 20 percent of Americans have “a lot” of confidence in Trump to make good decisions regarding Iran. About three times as many – 59% – have “not much” or no faith at all.

Trump has already renounced many of his most absolutist demands. He used to say that he would only accept an “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”, for example. At other times, he has said his main goals are ending Iran’s nuclear program and ensuring that Iran cannot finance proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Based on the latest trading conditions, these targets appear to be watered down.

Trump appears to have made two crucial mistakes from the start: He did not have a clear, actionable plan for how to end the war, and he did not sufficiently sell the war to the American people. Instead, he set the bar for success so high that he will struggle to clear it – at least without restarting full-scale hostilities and prolonging the war – and told voters after launching his attacks that it would be worth it.

Clearly, Americans disagree. And while it may be politically better to get out of this now rather than let things drag on, it might just be the less terrible option.

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