Trump surprises Zelensky with public promise on Patriots – but missiles might not come soon enough

US President Donald Trump’s promise to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors has given a glimmer of hope to millions of Ukrainians terrorized by deadly Russian ballistic missile strikes.

Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Türkiye, Trump said a “little bird told me… that we would give them the right to be Patriots.”

The announcement came as a surprise, even though Ukraine has been working on the issue for years and there are signs that a deal could be reached. Sitting next to Trump, President Volodymyr Zelensky sometimes looked like he couldn’t believe his luck. The two men share a difficult relationship and the escalation of the war in Iran appeared to have put Trump in a bad mood just before his meeting with Zelensky.

Trump’s language was rather vague and he admitted that he had not yet discussed the matter with the American companies manufacturing the Patriots – Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. They have not commented on this.

Zelensky said starting production would eventually allow Ukraine to produce enough interceptors for its needs as well as those of its allies.

Ukraine has historically faced a shortage of Patriot missiles, the only weapon capable of destroying some of Russia’s most advanced ballistic missiles. But the shortage has become critical in recent weeks – and the results have been devastating.

Russian attacks have killed at least 59 people in the kyiv region over the past week – with a massive airstrike killing 31 on Thursday and another killing 28 on Monday. More than 200 people were injured.

It is likely that many of these deaths could have been avoided if kyiv had enough interceptors.

Ukraine has become a master at defending its skies against Russian air attacks, using a combination of smart homegrown technology, Western-supplied weapons and disjointed military tactics that include mobile units of soldiers and volunteers repurposing weapons intended for other uses to shoot down drones and missiles.

Analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data shows that Ukraine regularly shoots down 90% of Russian drones and cruise missiles. Ballistic missiles, however, are a different beast, with two-thirds of them passing through regularly.

The Patriots shortage created an even bigger hole in the system. The Ukrainian military said Wednesday that it had failed to shoot down any of the Russian ballistic missiles fired at it Wednesday night.

In fact, ballistic missiles follow a curved trajectory which takes them out of the Earth’s atmosphere, before diving back into the atmosphere and onto their target. They travel at extremely high speeds, making them very difficult to intercept – and Russia currently fires up to 100 such missiles every month.

The Patriots, short for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target, are the US military’s primary missile defense system.

This is the most advanced system available, and the price reflects it. With the full installation of launchers, radars and interceptor missiles, each battery costs more than $1 billion, with a single interceptor costing up to $4 million, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The technology behind the system is a closely guarded secret and currently Japan and Germany are the only countries with licenses to co-produce Patriots domestically. The complexity of the weaponry makes it difficult to produce the latest interceptor missiles – only 600 are produced each year, according to the US Department of Defense.

The recent conflict between the United States and Iran has put additional pressure on already strained supplies, and Zelensky said starting production at home would eventually allow it to produce enough interceptors for its needs and those of its allies.

Ukraine reportedly has at least seven Patriot systems: three supplied by the United States; three from Germany; and at least one from a group of European allies.

Although obtaining the license would be a major step forward for kyiv, it would not do much in the short term. It could take months to start production, but the country needs defenses now. On Thursday, kyiv said it had asked nearly 40 countries to provide Ukraine with missiles from their existing stocks as soon as possible, “in exchange for future deliveries already contracted for Ukraine.”

Obtaining the licenses would be a major asset for kyiv, which is why Russia is closely monitoring any developments regarding the Patriots. Moscow has made no secret that it is targeting the systems in Ukraine and has warned kyiv’s allies against supplying them.

Speaking to reporters at his daily press briefing on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed the Patriot license promise as a major shift in the war, highlighting what he called a “certain ambivalence” and “duality” in Trump’s position.

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