The faultlines of Balochistan and the external exploiters

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The writer heads the Independent Center for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad

Between July 6 and 9, coordinated violent episodes shook Balochistan. Three major terrorist attacks against multiple targets in Ziarat, Bela-Winder, Chaghi, Khuzdar (which left nearly 100 people dead on both sides) and a sit-in on the outskirts of Quetta cannot be considered the work of a motley army acting alone. These strikes – a smaller version of Harof-1 (August 2024) and Harof-11 (January 2026) – betray an increasingly ferocious pattern, difficult to imagine without sustained planning, logistical coordination and material resources.

The continuing trajectory of violence reminds us of two inevitable phenomena facing Balochistan: an acute governance crisis led by people whose legitimacy is suspect (in the public eye) and external exploiters of internal fractures, including demands for fundamental rights.

I call the first “the mother of all evils” – a governing architecture that relies on selection, abhors merit, relies on security as a panacea to all challenges, and commands little public respect. The ensuing disconnect between the rulers and the ruled has caused multiple internal fractures, open to exploitation by enemies both internal and external.

Regarding the events, I find it compelling to cite what I wrote earlier to provide context to the “external drivers and exploiters” of Balochistan’s fault lines. The latest round of insurgencies in several places reminds me of an India Today cover story published on November 9, 2009. One wonders if the article titled “How to tackle a stubborn Pakistan?” strengthened the intellectual origins of what later became known as the “Doval Doctrine” or India’s “offense-defense” strategy.

The 12 participants, including current National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, G Parthasarathy, Kiran Bedi, Lt Gen (retd) Satish Nambiar, Brahma Chellaney, Ved Marwah, Maj Gen (retd) VK Datta, Kapil Kak, Ajai Sahni and Amitabh Mattoo, largely agreed that India needs a comprehensive national strategy – diplomatic isolation, covert capabilities and intelligence operations, among others.

A leading recommendation from what was dubbed BEST (Top Security and Terrorism Experts) stated that “Pakistan should no longer perceive terrorism as a ‘low cost, high return’ policy” and that India should “increase the costs to Pakistan’s security establishment if cross-border terrorism continues”.

It is difficult to relate the 2009 BEST discussions to current Indian politics. Yet the ideas discussed there were later associated with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval since 2014. Even Doval’s public statements on different occasions emphasized deterrence, indicated willingness to carry out cross-border or precision strikes, and expanded intelligence and covert capabilities.

The broader discussion, particularly remarks attributed to Ved Marwah, Ajit Doval and G Parthasarathy, focused on increasing costs for Pakistan by exploiting its internal and external vulnerabilities. Doval argued that a “stubborn enemy” needed to be reconciled and that Pakistan’s internal turmoil limited its ability to act, while Parthasarathy argued that Pakistan’s “fault lines” should be taken into account in Indian strategy and that the costs of Pakistan’s policies should be increased.

It is also no coincidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi – in his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2016 from the Red Fort – publicly mentioned Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and “Pakistan Occupied Kashmir” for the first time.

A day later, The Indian Express published a commentary by Praveen Swami – a journalist and author specializing in international strategy and security issues, currently national security editor at The Print. Swami argued that “the famous “lose Balochistan” formulation that entered public discourse after 2014 did not appear in a vacuum; it was generally consistent with the themes already visible during the 2009 BEST roundtable.”

Pakistan’s sworn ‘enemies’ had plotted to teach the country a lesson on its alleged support for the Kashmiri Mujahideen and the Afghan Mujahideen-turned-Taliban right from the attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, preceded by the Kargil conflict in mid-1999 and the hijacking of Kandahar in December of the same year. The Mumbai attacks of November 2009 solidified this thinking, widely expressed at the aforementioned security workshop organized by India Today.

Not surprisingly, the level of violence in resource-rich and poorly governed Balochistan has done far more than Indian occupied Kashmir has endured. The province is sinking deeper and deeper into a continuing wave of violence that entangles security forces on the one hand and blocks any economic activity or carefree investment in the exploitation of mineral wealth on the other.

And this is not limited to Balochistan; The socio-political unrest and economic stagnation of the last two decades, in particular, have either created new divides or exacerbated existing ones: unrest in Britain, popular disaffection in Kashmir, Pashtoon grievances (expressed by the PTM) in the former FATA, and Baloch complaints (raised also by nationalist politicians). Nearly four dozen deaths, including those of police and paramilitary forces, in terrorist attacks in 48 hours in Balochistan – Hanna Orak, Ziarat and Khuzdar – betray a pattern that cannot simply be dismissed as a local insurgency. This is also not sustainable for the economy in the long term.

Armed groups and warlords can provide security in limited areas – as evidenced by the case of Saindak and perhaps also Reko Diq, as well as that of some conflict-affected African countries – but this is certainly not a recommended recipe for a nuclear-armed nation.

The economy, trade and investments do not develop in the shadow of security. Without putting out internal fires, you cannot prevent external spoilers from further fueling those fires.

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