2022 NFL Draft Props: Borg & Betz (Fantasy Soccer)

Kyle and I took the 2021 NFL Draft from a betting perspective and spent several DFS podcasts this past offseason talking about the Draft from a prop betting perspective. Overall, this was a great learning experience and a lot of fun! We’re taking the plunge early this year and will be sure to update this article with every bet we place in person. Of course, we’ll also be covering the NFL Draft on multiple DFS shows throughout March and especially April, so be sure to subscribe to your favorite podcast platform.

The 2022 NFL Draft begins on April 28. As the days and weeks go by, more and more NFL Draft props will become available in various sportsbooks. We recommend shopping around for the best lines and prices whenever possible.

General strategy and thoughts

• NFL Draft props won’t get you rich – This is a relatively soft market and frankly a bit of a niche market. Books are very willing to take on thousands and thousands of dollars (sometimes even millions) on NFL lines and totals because they are extremely efficient lines and Vegas knows they will win in the long run. Most books put a limit on the amount of money you can place on a prop bet, including the NFL Draft.
• This market is fluid and will surely change – Unlike NFL spreads and totals, where we may only see things shifting by a point or two, the odds and values ​​of these props will change dramatically within a few months. We recommend seeing this process as a market and adjusting it if necessary. Sometimes it can even make sense to bet the same prop, but with a different player, if you think the market has moved in the wrong direction enough.
• Build a portfolio – It is certainly possible to win a few bets if you only bet a handful, but because this market is so fluid there will be inefficiencies everywhere. For example, there may be value in a bet now in February that has no value in April. Likewise, new information may become available in March that was not available in February, and now the bet you just placed a month ago seems off. Don’t get a lock – customize!
• Make sure to shop multiple books if you are able – If you live in a state with legalized betting that offers multiple books, try to find the best odds, prizes and even types of bets available. Because this is a niche market, it’s hard for books to wrap their heads around a market that can change from day to day and week to week by the time mid-April arrives.
• Have fun! – We think it’s really valuable to be profitable in this market because it’s hard for the books to keep up with all the changing news, fake drafts, Combine and Pro Day reports, etc. If you can follow the news relatively well, we think it is possible to deposit some extra money into your account. But at the same time, understand that much of this information is unknown to even the most plugged-in NFL reporters. Do you remember the Mac Jones vs. Justin Fields until the 49ers saga last year? Don’t be afraid to get off the board and have fun with it for the next few weeks.

NFL Draft Props We Deployed

†Rules accurate at time of publication**

1. Evan Neal Selected 1st Overall (+150), DraftKings SportsBook

Date: 23-2-22
Analysis: According to GrindingTheMocks.com, which pulls fake versions off the internet, Evan Neal has the lowest ADP of 1.9. In both fake versions of Daniel Jeremiah to date, he’s let Neal go 1st overall for the Jaguars, which is consistent with various mock concepts across the industry† Athletic Dane Brugler lets NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu go first in his Mock 1.0 from mid-January, but he says: “Several reviewers agreed that in a concept class that lacks a no-brainer top prospect, they prefer the tackles over the pass rushers.”From a true NFL perspective, we think it makes sense for the Jags to continue to build their offensive line and protect Trevor Lawrence after a terrible rookie season. This has now moved to +120 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re pretty excited to see this one moving in our favor. We believe that the +120 still has value as of now as we project the line to continue to Neal and #1 to the Jags based on recent trends in the Mock Draft industry.