Fantasy Football Week 11 fades: Can you trust Najee Harris?

Another week, another round of critically important starting/sitting decisions. To help you achieve this, here are six players with bust potential in Week 11.

Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation does not automatically mean you should draft a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.

QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins ​​is coming off a solid rebounding season from a torn Achilles tendon that ended his 2023 season. Through 10 weeks, he ranks as the fantasy QB10, third in passing yards (2,634) and tied for the fourth most passing touchdowns (17), a great matchup so far with WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson in the passing game.

But his opponent this week, the Broncos, are tied for the third-lowest EPA per pass attempt (-0.21), while ranking fourth in the league with a 39.2% pressure rate and second highest sack total in the league (35). behind only the New York Giants. According to PFF, Cousins ​​has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate among QBs with 25+ pressure dropbacks this season at 7.3%, throwing for 5 TDs and 7 INTs on such plays.

Heat control Kirk Cousins ​​belongs on most fantasy benches this week, outside of the two QB and Superflex leagues.

RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers play has come alive in recent weeks after a relatively slow start this season, thanks in large part to RB Najee Harris heating up (as is historically typical of him).

Unfortunately, there are some reasons to put the breaks on Harris' positive side for fantasy heading into Week 11. Last week, he snapped a three-game streak of 100-plus rushing yards in Week 10 (the first streak of his career) against a Commander defense that has been fairly friendly on the run, averaging just 2.5 yards per attempt on 21 carries.

This week, Harris faces a challenging matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the best defenses in the league through ten weeks of the season. The Ravens allow a league-low 3.4 rush yards per game, allowing the fewest runs of 10+ yards, giving up the fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.21), while third-lowest EPA per rush attempt is allowed -0.18.

Heat control Consider Harris more of a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent fantasy asset this week than a must-start. If Warren is active (currently questionable due to a back injury), he should be considered as a flex option, especially in full PPR scoring formats, as long as he is active.

RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills

It's challenging to imagine a running back who has had 20 or more touches in three of his past five games and has scored in all but three games in 2024. Football managers should brace for a boom/bust performance that falls outside Cook's usually safe floor.

In Week 11, the Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs, who were right next to the Ravens in their ability to close out the series this season. They are giving up a career-low 12.01 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. They are the only defense to give up fewer than 500 rushing yards to opponents, allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per rushing attempt (-0.16) and second-lowest yards per play average (3.7) . Against an equally skilled rushing defense in the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, the Bills were wildly out-rebounded, leaving Cook with just 48 yards on 10 total touches (0 TDs) for an RB44 finish on the day.

Heat control Start Cook as the top pick in a very potent Bills offense that could put up a lot of points, but be wary that this could be an inefficient spot that could make him a rather volatile asset this week.

WR DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

I didn't have to reach far for this Week 11 fade, but I felt it necessary to say this once you're not required to start DJ Moore (or any other Bears receiver for that matter) until this team has some sort of identity. The team has officially moved on from former OC Shane Waldron, but it will likely take more than a new play-caller to undo the damage done and the regression the offense has undergone since the bye week.

Moore is a good wide receiver and many will feel enticed to start because of his name value, but he has failed to put up more than 33 receiving yards in each of his last four games and finished outside the top 50 in his position in each of the matches. those games. His floor is simply too low to be trusted in even the most dire situations. This week the Bears will host the Green Bay Packers, a unit that ranks in the top-10 in average time to pressure and has been one of the most productive defenses in terms of forcing turnovers (18 total on the year). This could be another ugly one for the entire Bears offense outside of RB D'Andre Swift.

Heat control Doing. Not. Start. I beg you.

WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London thrived with new QB Kirk Cousins, scoring as the overall WR4 in fantasy through the first 10 weeks of the season, having recorded the fifth-most receptions (58) and eighth-most receiving yards (649) while ranking third at the position in total touchdowns. That all sounds fine and dandy, however, until you put it up against the Denver Broncos' vaunted defense. The biggest problem with that defense for London? All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

Here's a look at some of Surtain II's advanced stats in coverage and where that ranks among the CBs playing at least 200 coverage snaps this season:

• 10% target percentage in coverage (second lowest)

• 0.6 yards per snap allowed (least draw)

• -0.68 EPA per target (lowest)

• 57.5 NFL passer rating when targeted (fourth-lowest)

Simply put, Surtain isn't often the target of coverage because he's so efficient when opposing QBs try to make it happen. WRs DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson managed just 15.6 fantasy points combined against this defense, thanks in large part to Surtain's ability to shut down perimeter receivers.

Heat control London isn't a must-start in Week 11 if you have better options, though most rosters probably won't have the luxury of slotting him. While Zay Flowers found some success against this defense in Week 10, most of that production came from the slot after playing a season-low 47.1% of snaps on the perimeter in that game. If London works mainly on the outside, he's probably queuing for a quiet afternoon.

TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

There aren't many tight ends you can afford to fade in any given week, but given the current state of Jacksonville's offense, a warning about a potential dip in production for Evan Engram seems warranted. This week they will no longer be able to start quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He is dealing with a shoulder injury, which means Mac Jones is in the driver's seat and will once again take on the Detroit Lions.

The Lions allow the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback on slot + inline targets, giving up plenty of yardage in coverage of these parts of the field but scoring little (4 TD, 6 INT) in such coverage, which results in the second-fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing tight ends. They've only allowed one touchdown at the position all season, which doesn't bode well for a passing offense that failed to record a single passing touchdown last week, as Jones totaled just 139 passing yards on 22 attempts while also throwing for two . interceptions.

Heat control Considering Engram's role in the offense as a primary target when Christian Kirk is out, you'll be hard-pressed to find many options to choose over Engram in this economy. However, it could be a bumpy outing if Engram doesn't see significant volume.