Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a ‘geopolitical earthquake’ that set the year 2022

The war in Ukraine was the story that defined 2022. The war will go on to shape the world in 2023. A former US ambassador to NATO said the Russian invasion was “like a geopolitical earthquake”. “It seems that the war will continue for some time, until 2023,” said a former US ambassador to Ukraine. Upload something that is being loaded.

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in late February, it sent shockwaves around the world. The White House warned in early 2022 that an invasion might be imminent, but there was still an overwhelming sense of disbelief when the Russian offensive began. It was a nuclear power vying to conquer its next-door neighbour. The unimaginable nightmare scenario was now a reality – Europe’s largest military conflict since World War II had begun.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was the story that defined 2022, with disastrous consequences seeping into the daily lives of people all over the world – but none more so than the Ukrainian people.

The war, still raging, will continue to shape the world in the coming year and likely long after.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine represented a geopolitical earthquake, shattering the entire chessboard in world politics,” Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, told Insider.

Ukrainian forces fire an M777 howitzer in the Kharkiv region on July 28, 2022. Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images

In the months leading up to Russia’s invasion, as it amassed a formidable force on Ukraine’s borders, there were serious doubts about the United States’ ability to continue to shape global events and bring allies together. The United States was left humiliated on the world stage in 2021 amid its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which saw thousands of Afghan allies left behind as the Taliban regain control after twenty years of war.

The disastrous withdrawal came less than a year after supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol in a deadly insurrection, undermining faith in the strength and health of American democracy. The Trump presidency has been marked by a seemingly endless cycle of self-crisis. Meanwhile, hyper-nationalist far-right leaders with worldviews similar to Putin’s were gaining a foothold in countries across the West. Throughout it all, Trump has routinely attacked NATO while praising authoritarianism like the Russian leader. By the end of 2021, the United States looked like an unreliable partner and the transatlantic alliance appeared fractured.

For Putin, who has been obsessed with Ukraine for years, early 2022 seemed like perhaps the perfect moment to strike. The Russian military was considered to be among the most powerful in the world, surpassed only by the United States. Kyiv was expected to fall within days if Russia invaded. The West seemed so mired in its own problems that it did nothing about it. Not to mention that much of Europe was highly dependent on Russia for energy – Moscow had leverage.

But Putin miscalculated. Ukraine put up much stiffer resistance than anyone expected, ensuring Russia failed to achieve its early goals – including preventing Russian forces from capturing Kyiv. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian and political novice, has rallied the country and emerged as a wartime leader who has been lauded around the world. Zelensky’s refusal to flee Kyiv, despite the huge risks, led to Ukraine’s persistence.

The war in Ukraine has quickly pulled the West together, with leaders like President Joe Biden portraying it as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism. Through careful diplomacy and coordination, the Biden administration has helped build a coalition to provide vital support to Kyiv and isolate Russia economically and politically. NATO alliance together. Countries with long-standing neutrality policies have sent weapons to Ukraine. Finland and Sweden, historically not allied militarily, moved to join NATO. The European Union has taken steps to end its dependence on Russian energy.

Putin launched the invasion with the aim of weakening NATO, an alliance that Ukraine has long sought to join. Although Ukraine is not a member and seems unlikely to be accepted anytime in the near future, especially as the war drags on, Putin’s goal of eroding NATO unity has backfired. Instead of weakening the alliance, NATO is now on the verge of expanding — including by adding a country (Finland) that shares an 810-mile border with Russia.

Meanwhile, the war left Russia few friends on the world stage and spurred an awkward dynamic with Beijing, which has often sided with Moscow on geopolitical issues. The United Nations voted to condemn the invasion, and expelled Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. Putin skipped the G-20 summit in Bali last month, and has taken a number of international trips since the war began—only visiting the short list of countries still friendly to Russia like Belarus and Iran.

“Until February 24, Russia and China proclaimed a ‘borderless’ partnership based on the idea that the West is divided, decadent and receding and that the East is rising in strength and prestige,” said Daalder. I changed all of that. Far from taking control of Ukraine in a matter of weeks, Russia’s ambitions were thwarted by a combination of Ukrainian determination and Western support. and its army was exposed as weak and failing; And its economy is gradually cut off from the global system. “

Putin in recent days has made a rare admission that the war in Ukraine is not going well, citing an “extremely difficult” situation in occupied Ukrainian territory. In September, the Russian leader illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions despite the fact that Russian forces did not fully control these regions. The Russian army has lost ground in these lands since then, withdrawing from Kherson – the first major city Russia occupied after the invasion – last month. The Russian economy also fell into recession in November.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the SCTO Summit in Yerevan, Armenia, November 23, 2022. Contributor / Getty Images

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the British Armed Forces commander, said in mid-December that Russia was “losing in Ukraine” and “will continue to fail.” It is estimated that Russia has suffered nearly 100,000 casualties in the war so far, a staggering number in less than a year of fighting. Meanwhile, Western officials say the Russian military is rapidly running out of ammunition, which will severely hamper its ability to continue ground offensive operations.

Between the bleak situation on the ground in the war on Russian forces and Moscow’s economic woes, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that 2022 was a “bleak year of failure” for Putin – leaving Russia the poorest and most isolated it has ever been. contracts.

“In contrast, America has really come back. The Biden administration has proven its ingenuity and high effectiveness in leading a Western coalition to oppose Russia and stand by Ukraine,” Daalder said. “The West itself has been transformed, now realizing that the world is far from a peaceful place and that hard, military and economic power is just as important as soft civil power.”

The war in Ukraine is not over yet. Talks to end the fighting seem virtually impossible as things go. As the conflict continues into 2023, its ripple effects are expected to intensify—rising energy prices and inflation.

“The Kremlin, which launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine in February, shows no sign that it is willing to negotiate seriously, even though the war will appear diminished in military, economic and geopolitical terms,” Stephen Pifer, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, told Insider.

“Ukraine is the victim, and if anything, its resolve to resist has increased since February. Moreover, the Ukrainian army has had momentum on the battlefield for the past three months. So, it looks like the war will continue for some time, until 2023 and possibly longer.”

Although the war did not go well for Russia, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will continue to pose many tough questions for the West and beyond in 2023.

There is growing opposition among Republicans to the levels of aid provided to Ukraine by the United States, which could be an irritant for the White House after the Republican Party took control of the House of Representatives in January. As the war drags on and the global economic fallout becomes clearer, there may also be growing calls in Congress for talks to end the fighting – even if Kyiv makes concessions. Debates on these issues could add to the historically divisive atmosphere in Washington.

Moreover, Putin’s repeated nuclear threats seriously alarmed him. Some experts have warned that the nuclear risks posed by Ukraine’s post-war war are “much worse” than the Cuban missile crisis, which occurred 60 years ago last October.

“The kinds of consequences the war has had on the broader global community will likely continue to be felt in 2023,” Peaver said.

Indeed, the global dimensions of the Ukrainian war could make it an epoch-defining battle. “No other story sums up the enduring transformation of the world more than this one. Its influence will be with us for many years,” said Daalder.

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