The Optimism Series: Seismology Enters the Age of Big Data

We cannot predict earthquakes, and most likely we never will. This may sound like a somewhat pessimistic way to start an optimistic blog, but I find that it illustrates the problem and allows us to focus on what is possible rather than on what isn’t. And if you look closely, we’ve quietly made a lot of advances in seismology over time, in ways that will have a real, positive impact on society.

Historically, seismology’s most direct impact on daily life comes through the development of building codes and structural design. The basic idea is that seismologists apply a somewhat involved technique known as “probabilistic seismic hazard analysis” that integrates working knowledge of earthquake faulting physics and ground motions in a way that can be used by engineers who make our built environment to make it resilient in the event of severe shaking. While this basic formula is well established, the physical and engineering knowledge that underpins this work has advanced significantly over the past few decades, from the simple point source and single degree-of-freedom oscillator models of the late 20th century to modern dynamic rupture and detailed building response simulations that have enabled by modern high-performance computing systems. With these technical advances, we have greatly improved our ability to measure seismic hazards and the risks they pose to society. Buildings constructed with the latest science and engineering in mind are safer than ever. So while we can’t predict earthquakes, this unfortunate fact wouldn’t matter if our buildings didn’t fall.

In recent years, seismology has begun to interact with “real life” in more new but just as important ways. After major earthquakes, the USGS now produces rapid source characterization products, damage and loss estimates, and aftershock forecasts that help us deploy disaster response resources where they are needed most. Over shorter periods of time, earthquake early warning has evolved from a wild idea into a reality for people living in the western United States. By simply downloading and installing a free app on your smartphone, citizens of California, Oregon and Washington will get a warning from seconds to minutes that strong shaking is in the way, allowing people to drop, cover and continue automating. Systems such as transmission grids and power stations to safely reduce power. In the coming years, as advocacy continues from scientists and the general public, these regulations will expand to states like Nevada and smartphones like the one you might be reading this on. Fortunately, public safety and earthquake science enjoy broad, bipartisan support, with the National Seismic Risk Reduction Program reauthorized more than a dozen times by departments and legislatures from both sides of the aisle.

Earthquake hazards are just one of the many forms of natural hazards we face in western Nevada, ranging from wildfires and floods to climate change. Preparing for and mitigating the harm caused by these risks requires scientific data, and fortunately we now have more data than ever before, right at our fingertips. As technology advances, seismology will evolve along with it. A notable example is the growth and expansion of Nevada’s network from a small group of analogue stations to a state-of-the-art multi-stakes network. Many people are rightly worried about the AI ​​revolution, as the Internet of Things is becoming a reality. But from the point of view of a seismologist like myself, there could be nothing better than having a seismometer in every kitchen and living room. Just imagine the data we have, and the science for the community we can do with it.

About the author

Daniel Trogman is an assistant professor at the Nevada Seismological Laboratory. His research team is working at the interface between seismology and data science to better characterize earthquakes and the hazards they produce.

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