Island may be in most earthquake-prone part of coast: study

A new study finds that the part of the Cascadia subduction zone that includes the South Island and Washington state could be the most vulnerable to a major earthquake.

Southern Vancouver Island could be in the most dangerous part of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000-kilometre-long region stretching from British Columbia to California that is prone to earthquake activity.

A recent study found that the area is made up of four parts instead of a single structure, and the part of the island and Washington state is likely the most vulnerable to a major earthquake.

John Cassidy, a seismologist with Natural Resources Canada, who was not involved in the study, said the latest equipment has produced data that has created a more accurate view of what the entire region contains than ever before.

“It's as if we were looking at the subduction zone with foggy glasses and we have a much clearer picture now,” he said. “But there is still more work to be done.”

Cassidy said the study used extensive data from 2021 collected using high-tech, waterproof cables and microphones placed in the ocean.

Before that, low-quality images from the 1980s were all that was available. They were generated from cables about three kilometers long, while current information was collected using greatly improved technology and cables up to 15 kilometers long.

Cassidy said the study will improve earthquake and tsunami risk assessment. “It allows for better models of tsunami generation that emergency planners will use, for example, and allows for better estimates of ground shaking.”

The latter could be used to determine building codes, he said.

According to an article from Columbia University's Climate School, which involved marine geophysicist Suzanne Charbot in the research, the study suggests that the earthquake-prone zone in this part could extend under the Olympic Peninsula.

That could worsen shaking on the ground and “could mean the difference between alarming and catastrophic” in places like Tacoma and Seattle, Harold Tobin, a geophysicist at the University of Washington, said in the article.

Cassidy said the new images show that the part surrounding the island has a very smooth seafloor, suggesting there may be increased “slippage” there when an earthquake strikes.

In turn, more slippage generally translates into stronger ground motions, Cassidy said.

Softness could also mean that the entire section is being torn apart during an earthquake, rather than being reduced by different formations on the ocean floor.

Cassidy noted that the Cascadia subduction zone contains a “megathrust fault” that has produced earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater — most recently in January 1700.

He added that information about that earthquake comes from indigenous accounts and through written records from Japan, where the resulting tsunami reached.

Paleontology — the examination of ancient rocks and sediments — shows that there have been 19 earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater in the past 10,000 years.

Cassidy said that sometimes the gap between large earthquakes is about 250 years, while other times it is 850 years, noting that the last earthquake was 324 years ago.

He added that these large-scale earthquakes are rare events and easy to forget, “but they have happened in the past and they will happen again,” noting that there is a federal earthquake early warning system in British Columbia, as is the case in other areas in British Columbia. private sector.

He said the volume of data collected would lead to more findings and further analysis.

“This is just the first set of results,” he added. “These will continue to emerge over the next months and even the next few years.”

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