Earthquake swarm sounds alarm over nuclear plans

Tom Hartley, reporter: In the Hunter Valley of New South Wales, where open-pit mines have grown to shape and dominate the landscape, the booms and explosions from the coalfields have become as common as high-visibility clothing on high streets.

But it was a series of recent, more intense murmurs that put the locals on edge.

Fox Bob: We thought it was the coal trains, then we realized it was.

VOX POP: The worst part is that there were so many of them over a period of just a few days.

Khalifa Askar, Governor-General: I was more surprised than anything, oh my God another earthquake because there hasn't been an earthquake for several years.

Tom Hartley: Scientists are calling it a series of earthquakes, with the area having seen 41 seismic events in the past three weeks. The largest, a magnitude 4.7, caused power outages and damage to mostly brick buildings, but fortunately no serious injuries.

Greg Smith, Railway Hotel: It was very scary.

Tom Hartley: What were you thinking at that moment?

Greg Smith: Well, I did the worst thing possible. I froze.

Tom Hartley: In this pub, some of the foam was removed from the top; the paintings from the walls; and the old chimney from the roof.

Greg Smith: It's a bit disturbing to say the least.

Tom Hartley: Most of the earthquakes had their epicentre in the triangle of the mines around Muswellbrook.

While there are instances worldwide where mining has caused earthquakes, there is not enough evidence to determine whether this is the case here.

Dr Trevor Allen, Geoscience Australia: Could these earthquakes be attributed to mining activities? That could take years to really find out.

Tom Hartley: I was speaking to the chief seismologist, Dr Trevor Allen, at the National Earthquake Warning Centre when another incident was detected at Muswellbrook.

Trevor Allen: Our seismic sensors picked up a seismic signal, and that probably shows that there was a mine explosion in the area, so it was picked up by these three stations.

Tom Hartley: Like the locals, Trevor told me he was quite surprised to see the so-called “earthquake swarm” in New South Wales.

Trevor Allen: They're more common in the wheat belt of Western Australia, where we tend to have very shallow earthquake epicenters. So seeing this type of earthquake in eastern Australia is very rare.

Tom Hartley: Technically, the ground is always moving beneath our feet. Let me show you that with a cool graph.

The world is covered in slow-moving tectonic plates, pushing against each other, and these same forces are also putting pressure on the Australian crust; the pressure builds up, and when the rocks can't take it anymore, they slide.

When this happens, it is called a rift. There are many active rifts including several here in Hunter.

PETER DUTTON, Leader of the Opposition: Well, everyone, thank you very much for being here today.

Tom Hartley: As part of its response to Australia's clean energy dilemma, the coalition government in June introduced plans to build several nuclear reactors at existing or former coal-fired power stations.

Peter Dutton: We have done an analysis of each site, and we will continue to work with experts.

Tom Hartley: Let's look at this map again.

These are the seven locations. These are the faults we were just looking at and these are the most recent earthquakes that have occurred in the last ten years.

Adam Pascal, seismologist: It's quite a coincidence that shortly after the plan for this project was announced, we had large, widespread earthquakes at two of the proposed stations – the one at Luoyang and the other at Liddell.

Tom Hartley: Seismologist Adam Pascal is part of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.

Adam Pascal: So here we have all the faults that are near Muswellbrook and in Gippsland, and you can see the faults near Luoyang. So those are two of the proposed sites.

Tom Hartley: We asked Adam about the risks of building a nuclear site in a common earthquake zone.

Adam Pascal: I think in this case, putting it directly on the fault probably wouldn't be a good idea, but putting it in an area where there's a lot of seismic activity, it can be managed through engineering.

Tom Hartley: The Australian nuclear safety regulator, ARPANSA, points to internationally recognised guidance that states that “a proposed new site should be considered unsuitable…” if it is on an active fault, and the risks cannot be “compensated for”.

The coalition told us it would get an “independent nuclear energy coordinating body” to figure this out, and there are many nuclear plants in high seismic areas elsewhere in the world that are designed and operated safely.

Adam Pascal: When it comes to things like nuclear power stations, they're designed to withstand earthquakes of the largest magnitude that we can get in Australia, but there are always situations that can't be planned for. You know, there needs to be a level of protection in the engineering to make sure that we can accommodate all of that.

Tom Hartley: What happened in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 is a good example. It wasn’t the earthquake that destroyed the nuclear plant and the surrounding community, it was the tsunami that followed.

Adam Pascal: The facility was designed to handle that level of shaking, and then it was shut down as planned. They planned for a five-meter tsunami, but what happened was a ten-meter tsunami. So there's always this barrier that prevents us from knowing what might happen.

This is why these site-specific studies need to be conducted.

Tom Hartley: We asked Shadow Energy Secretary Ted O'Brien for an interview; he sent us a statement instead:

“It is inappropriate to think that seismic activity 'automatically excludes an area', and if a site is found to be 'technically unsuitable' it will be removed from consideration,” he said.

The more people you ask about Muswellbrook, the more varied the opinions will be.

Khalifa Askar: Since I was not an advocate of nuclear energy, but I imagined that nuclear energy might be a good idea, this changed my opinion somewhat.

Tom Hartley: The earthquakes didn't change your mind about the possibility of building a nuclear power plant down the road.

Greg Smith: Nothing at all, nothing at all.

They're on fault lines everywhere, and I think with the technology they have today, I think they'll be safe.

Tom Hartley: Like a storm chaser heading towards a cyclone, Geoscience Australia is deploying additional sensors this week to collect more live data around Muswellbrook.

These machines could help answer questions about the region's seismic past and potential nuclear future.

Do you suspect that this will continue and that we will see more earthquakes?

Trevor Allen: It could happen in the coming weeks or months. We're probably going to start seeing a decrease in the number of earthquakes that are happening now, and hopefully the intensity of those events will start to decrease over time.

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