Do animals have a “sixth sense” for earthquakes?

It is difficult to reliably predict when and where an earthquake will occur. However, eyewitnesses reported repeatedly that the animals were behaving unusually before the earthquake.

Experts disagree on whether earthquakes can be predicted exactly. Even so, the animals seemed to sense the impending hours of danger in advance. For example, there are reports that wild animals leave their sleeping and nesting places right before strong earthquakes and that pets become anxious. However, these anecdotal accounts often do not stand up to scientific scrutiny because the definition of unusual behavior is often very unclear and the observation period is very short. Other factors can also explain the animals’ behavior.

In an international collaboration project, researchers investigated whether animals such as cows, sheep and dogs could actually detect early signs of earthquakes.

The team of researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior in Konstanz / Radolfzel and the Center of Excellence for the Advanced Study of Group Behavior at the University of Konstanz attached animal sensors to an earthquake-prone area in northern Italy and recorded their movements over a period of several months. Movement data shows that the animals were unusually anxious in the hours leading up to the earthquakes.

The closer the animals got to the epicenter of the impending earthquake, the earlier they began to behave unusually. Movement profiles of different animal species in different regions can provide clues as to where and when an impending earthquake will occur.

In order to be able to use animal activity patterns as a kind of earthquake early warning system, animals must demonstrate measurable behavioral changes. Moreover, if they were already reacting to weak physical changes right before the earthquake, they should react with greater force the closer they were to the epicenter.

On an Italian farm in an earthquake-prone region, researchers attached accelerometers to the collars of six cows, five sheep and two dogs, that had already shown unusual behavior before the earthquakes. Then the researchers recorded their movements continuously over a period of several months. During this period, official authorities reported about 18,000 earthquakes in the area. In addition to many small, unnoticed earthquakes, there have also been 12 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4 or higher on the Richter scale.

Then the researchers selected the earthquakes that triggered statistically relevant ground movements on the farm. These included strong earthquakes of up to 28 kilometers as well as the weakest earthquakes whose epicenters were very close to the farm. However, instead of looking explicitly for abnormal behaviors in the period preceding these events, researchers chose a more cautious approach. They first distinguished all behavioral changes of animals that were unusual according to objective statistical criteria. “In this way, we ensure that we not only establish correlations retrospectively, but also have a model that can be used for predictions,” says Martin Wickelski, director of the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior and principal investigator at the center. For the advanced study of group behavior.

The data – measured as the acceleration of each farm animal’s body (indicating activity level) – were assessed using statistical models drawn from financial econometrics. Co-author Winfried Pohlmeier, professor of econometrics at the University of Konstanz and principal investigator at the Applicant Center, explains the study of group behavior. The scientists also looked at other disruptive factors such as natural changes in animal activity patterns throughout the day.

In this way, researchers discovered unusual behavior patterns up to 20 hours before the earthquake. “The closer the animals are to the epicenter of impending trauma, the sooner they change their behavior. This is exactly what you would expect when physical changes occur frequently in the epicenter of an impending earthquake and become weaker with increasing distance,” explains Wickelski. However, this effect was only evident when the researchers looked at all the animals together. “Collectively, the animals seem to exhibit abilities that are not easily identifiable at the individual level,” Wikelski says.

It remains unclear how the animals can sense impending earthquakes. Animals may feel the ionization of air from the pressures of large rocks in earthquake areas with their fur. It is also envisaged that animals could smell gases from quartz crystals before an earthquake.

The real-time data that the researchers measured and recorded since December 2019 shows what an animal earthquake early warning system can look like: A chip on a collar sends the movement data to a central computer every three minutes. This triggers a warning signal if significantly increased animal activity is recorded for at least 45 minutes.

Researchers once received such a warning. “Three hours later, a small earthquake shook the area,” says Waiklsky. “The epicenter was directly below the animal stables.”

However, before using animal behavior to predict earthquakes, researchers need to observe more animals over longer periods of time in different earthquake zones around the world.

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