Policymakers should plan ahead for the use of seismic cordon, Otago research

Otago researchers who study the effects of post-earthquake collars on residents and companies say policymakers should plan ahead of the use of cordoning to minimize negative consequences.

A team from the University of Otago’s Center for Sustainability produced a research paper on the short- and long-term effects of post-earthquake collars, using data collected on ring use following the Christchurch earthquake of 6.3 magnitude in 2011, and L’Aquila’s magnitude 6.3. 2009 Italy earthquake.

September 4, 2020 marks 10 years since the 7.2-magnitude Darfield earthquake, whose epicenter was 40 kilometers west of Christchurch, caused significant damage to central Christchurch and saw collars inserted to restrict access to affected areas.

The Otago study aims to address the gap in the literature on the purpose, complexities and societal implications of post-earthquake barriers, particularly with regard to impacts on housing, legal concerns, social welfare, economics, civil liberties, and health.

Dr. Caroline Orkston

Lead author Dr Caroline Orkston says the research should give policymakers and other stakeholders a good overview of the end results that can be expected when creating hoops.

“In Wellington, the local government is working hard to make their city more resilient, but it is likely that a major future earthquake will require encircling parts of the city center.

“This research will assist decision-makers to make informed decisions and suggests that advance belt planning is very important in a seismically active country like New Zealand.”

She says the possibility of building cordons after an earthquake for longer periods of time means that civil liberties can be restricted, public confidence may erode while rebuilding, reconstruction and recovery processes may be simplified or delayed.

“The belts are mainly set up to protect public safety. For hoops to be effective, people must adhere to the rules.”

“This can be difficult if your business or property is within the cordon, as we saw after the February 2011 earthquake,” she says.

About 6,000 companies in Christchurch and 50,000 jobs were replaced after the Christchurch earthquake, with 58 percent of CBD businesses reporting a decrease in revenue, and 31 percent closing permanently.

The inability to reach commercial buildings within a cordoned off area, even if their services are running, can lead to disruption such as lack of access to cash or data stored on computers, documents, or inventory.

In terms of the housing impacts, the displacement of those who live within the cordon could put pressure on surrounding housing resources, which could be exacerbated if the influx of rebuilding workers follows during the post-earthquake recovery phase.

Even when transitional housing was made available after the L’Aquila earthquake, Italy, problems arose regarding durability and maintenance, lack of services and public transportation, and questionable environmental and urban values ​​and safety.

The study found that in cases of mandatory eviction, it can be assumed that the individual will have the ability to return to his property once the eviction is over, but if there is cordon, the individual’s personal property has been stranded for some time, or even permanently lost if their building is condemned.

“Cordon managers may wish to provide flexibility in enclosed access if they deem it safe to do so,” says Dr. Orkiston.

“This flexibility may encourage residents to evacuate quickly in the event of an earthquake, rather than spending time collecting valuables before leaving.”

Other effects of post-earthquake collars included the psychological impact of pet loss / delinquency, and negative effects on physical, mental and emotional health.

However, researchers have found that if managed well, the ring could affect the public’s confidence in the government’s response to the recovery.

Dr Orkiston says there is increasing recognition by policymakers, academics and relevant stakeholders that collars are a necessary and very useful tool for disaster management, and when applied effectively, they can support the recovery of a city and its residents after a major seismic event.

Co-authors Shakti Raj Shrestha and Greg Underwood suggest that the research highlights that cordon and decision operations are a complex task, and the paper provides a good information base that can be used to pre-plan a collar creation.

“When New Zealand experiences another major urban earthquake in the future, we will do a lot better if we really pay careful attention to cordon management and decision-making,” says Shrestha.

He says the research is closely related to studies of law, governance, disaster management, economics and social welfare, including temporary housing, evacuation, and social and economic recovery.

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