New study says strangely balanced rocks could be key to predicting earthquakes

Balanced Rock in Arches National Park in Utah is 128 feet. Scientists say rocks like this, including more releases, could be key to predicting earthquakes.

(NPS / Kait Thomas) Unstably balanced rocks, or PBRs, have been the focus of earthquake research for decades, a new study says they can be used to create more accurate risk models, and planners, engineers and insurance companies are using such models to measure earthquake risk.

In stony terrain, it is not uncommon to see rocks perched on bases in strange places, looking as if they were about to capsize.

Tourists flock to see some of the most iconic formations, such as those in Arches National Park in Utah and the Garden of the Gods in Colorado.

The smaller, milder versions sit randomly in fields or on hillsides.

Scientists call them “precariously balanced rocks,” or PBRs for short, and have studied them for decades to see what evidence they may hold for past or future earthquakes.

Now, a new study says PBRs could be key to creating more accurate earthquake risk models, which predict the probability and strength of future earthquakes at a specific site and are used by engineers, planners, and insurance companies to measure risk.

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The study, led by scientists at Imperial College London, was published Thursday in the journal AGU Advances. Researchers studied the age of PBRs in the coastal portion of San Luis Obispo County, southern California, as well as the potential for falling rocks during an earthquake.

California PBR 2.JPG

Researcher Anna Rudd sits near an unstable rock in California.

(Imperial College London)

After measuring and photographing the rocks, they used the 3D modeling software to make digital copies. They ran those models with computer models to simulate the vibration and estimate how strong an earthquake it should be to bring them down.

This gave them an idea of ​​the previous earthquakes in the region and their strength, which was then used to calculate future risk models.

Anna Rudd, lead author of the study and doctoral student at Imperial, in a press release. “By taking advantage of this, we are providing uniquely valuable data on rare, large-scale earthquake rates.”

Rudd and her colleagues concluded that they can improve the accuracy of earthquake risk estimates and adjust forecasts of future earthquake magnitudes. They also found that PBRs can survive twice as often as previously thought.

“We are teetering on the brink of a breakthrough in the science of earthquake prediction,” said Dr. Dylan Rudd, professor of earth science and engineering at Imperial College and co-author of the study, in the press release. Our “rock clock” technologies have the potential to save huge costs in seismic engineering, and can be used to test and update site-specific risk estimates for earthquake-prone areas.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of the parent company, IBM.

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