If it does it will happen again

Written by Sam Speller, 52 minutes ago

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After Cape Town was struck by earthquakes last weekend, a geophysicist warned that it could happen again.

If Cape Town was hit by a major seismic event, there would be significant damage to the city’s infrastructure and property, said Professor André Kejo, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Pretoria.

Last weekend, an earthquake measuring 6.2 on the Richter scale was detected nearly 1,600 km offshore in Cape Town, followed by earthquakes of 2.5 and 2.9 magnitude even in the northern suburbs.

Kejo said: “It is doubtful that the epicenter is exactly the same as it happened previously, but the base of seismologists is very clear: if this happens, it will happen again.”

We don’t know when exactly, but we know the area. The easiest element that we can identify is where it will be. If we had a 6.3-magnitude earthquake in Cape Town, there would be massive damage. “

Kejo added that 90% of the seismic activity in South Africa is due to mining.

In 2014, Kijko co-authored a paper titled “A Scenario Approach to Estimating Maximum Projected Loss of Buildings Due to an Earthquake in Cape Town” which estimated that if the city was hit by a 6.96 magnitude earthquake, it is considered a “worst-case scenario”, there would be severe property damage .

The paper calculates this using two previous major earthquakes, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake in the Milnerton area in 1809, estimated to be the epicenter of the ancient Ascot Racecourse, and the 6.3-magnitude earthquake at Tulbagh and Ceres that killed 12 people in 1969.

In another estimate, damage from a 6.3-magnitude earthquake could result in damage to structures within a 50-kilometer radius from the epicenter which could cost the insurance industry up to 10 billion rand.

According to insurance expert Christelle Coleman, while insurance providers in South Africa were aware of the risks of earthquakes hitting the city, there were other factors to consider.

“If you have insurance with a South African insurance company, there is a 100% chance you will be covered from the damage.

“The big issue for us, and what we’re looking at, is urban sprawl in Milnerton, the Parklands area where they expect to be the epicenter of the earthquake.

“It is one thing to talk about insurance, but the majority of people who will be affected are those who do not have insurance,” Coleman said.

She added that the insurance industry could survive the billions of rand effects that Kijko envisioned.

“Every insurance company in South Africa has its own model and they determine their exposure according to the number of risks in a particular region, and then they will take those measurements to the reinsurance market.

The reinsurance companies will then re-insure the insurance company’s exposure on the basis of a disaster. “

On Monday, Cape Town said that in the event of an earthquake, the Council of Earth Sciences and the South African Weather Service will be the lead agencies.

“The city disaster coordination team will coordinate responses to potential impacts, including internal and external agencies including SAPS, SANDF, EMS Urban Search and Rescue, SPCA, etc.,” said Municipal Safety and Security Committee member JP Haddad.

“We believe our systems are ready in the event of a disaster,” said James Brent Stein, MEC spokesperson, Environment Affairs and Development Planning.

“We have over 160 highly trained people we can deploy if there is a situation.

“Over the past 10 years, we have sent teams to help earthquake-struck places like Haiti and Japan.”

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