Preparations are underway for the East Coast earthquake, tsunami

In the LANTEX 21 Exercise scheduled for March 17th, a strong 8.8 earthquake will be simulated at 36.0 N and 15.0 W in the North Atlantic Ocean; It will send a tsunami towards the coast of North America. Photo: NOAA

Are you and your local officials ready for a potentially devastating tsunami along the eastern coast of the United States? While most tsunami threats are linked to the Pacific basin, as strong earthquakes in New Zealand showed last week and tsunami monitoring in Hawaii, officials are preparing for the possibility of similar seismic activity in the Atlantic basin that could threaten the eastern coast of the United States and the Caribbean by launching it. Two separate exercises for the next two weeks.

On March 11th, through the CaribeWave ’21 Tsunami Warning System Exercise, officials will be prospecting for two hypothetical earthquakes. At 9 a.m. ET, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center will act as if an 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck 18.2 ND 75.3 W near Jamaica. At that time, a stronger 8.5 earthquake would strike near the Lesser North Antilles at 18.9 N, 62.4 W. In the exercises, a simulated tsunami will hit parts of Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and parts of Central and South America with the first earthquake, while a larger, more impactful tsunami will be simulated with the second earthquake.

A second earthquake simulating a CaribeWave wave will trigger a tsunami that will be launched from the Lesser North Antilles. During a true tsunami, such a map will only be made available to officially designated Tsunami Warning Contact Points and National Tsunami Warning Centers. Photo: NOAA

While the CaribeWave ’21 simulations will share earthquake and tsunami warning and warning information among officials, none of them should be released to the public. However, the following text will be added to the test messages in case they somehow end up in public channels:

… This message is for testing purposes only … … Tsunami threat test message test … **** Notice **** Notice **** Notice **** Notice **** Notice * ** ** This is a test letter. This message has been issued for the information only in support of the UNESCO / IOC TSUNAMI system and the Other Coastal Hazard Warning System for the Caribbean and adjacent areas and is appropriate for the national authorities in each country of this system. This is a test message. National authorities will determine the appropriate level of alert for each country and may issue additional or more accurate information. **** Notice **** Notice **** Notice **** Notice **** Notice *****

Days later, on March 17th, there will be more drills for a major earthquake and tsunami. Unlike the CaribeWave ’21 event focused on Caribbean preparedness, Exercise LANTEX 21 on March 17 was designed to prepare the rest of the North American coast for tsunami hazards.

The LANTEX21 exercise on March 17th will simulate a stronger magnitude 8.8 earthquake in the North Atlantic Ocean at 8 a.m. ET. The earthquake, whose epicenter was 9 miles deep at 36.0 N and 15.0 W, would trigger a devastating tsunami towards the eastern coasts of the United States and Canada.

In LANTEX21, a tsunami warning will be “issued” for coastal areas of Newfoundland and Labrador from Cape Ray, Newfoundland to Cape Chidley, Labrador while tsunami advisory will be “issued” for Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New York Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and the balance of the east coast of North America from Cape Ray, Newfoundland to Flamingo, Florida.

These earthquake and tsunami exercises will help raise awareness of the threats these areas may face, allowing local officials and residents to prepare when a real threat arrives. (Should any real tsunami threat occur during the exercise time period, the exercise will be terminated.)

Tsunamis are giant waves caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions under the sea. In the depths of the ocean, tsunamis do not get much higher. But as waves move toward land, they accumulate at higher and higher altitudes as the depth of the ocean decreases. Tsunami wave velocity depends on the depth of the ocean rather than the distance from the wave source. Tsunami waves may travel at the same speed as jets over deep water, slowing down only when they reach shallow waters. While tsunamis are often referred to as tidal waves, this name is discouraged by oceanologists because tides have nothing to do with these gigantic waves.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US National Tsunami Risk Mitigation Program (NTHMP) provide the framework for the LANTEX21 tsunami exercise, which is conducted to assist tsunami preparedness efforts across the Atlantic region. Recent earthquakes and associated tsunamis, such as those in Samoa (2009), Haiti (2010), Chile (2010, 2015), and Japan (2011) attest to the importance of proper tsunami response planning. Similar recent exercises in the Pacific and Caribbean basins have proven effective in enhancing the preparedness levels of emergency management organizations. This exercise will provide simulated tsunami alert messages from the NOAA / NWS National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) for the eastern coasts of Canada and the United States as well as Puerto Rico and the US / British Virgin Islands.

Active tectonics and historical earthquakes in the source area of ​​the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (GB = Gorringe Bank, AP = Abyssal Plain, LTV = Lower Tagus Valley; arrows indicate the rotation of the Africa Plate). Source: AIR

The area in which the simulation will take place is not alien to violent earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The plate boundary between Africa and Eurasia extends from the triangular junction of the mid-Atlantic Ocean near the Azores in the east to the Strait of Gibraltar. Here, the Africa plate rotates counterclockwise relative to the Eurasia plate at a rate of about 4 mm / yr. While this movement is relatively slow compared to the boundaries of other active plates found elsewhere around the world, several large-scale earthquakes have occurred here. In 1755, there was a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. In 1816, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck here. In 1969, a 7.9 earthquake struck here.

A typical tsunami from a simulated LANTEX21 earthquake will affect the east coast of North America, with some areas affected more than others. The model indicated large tsunamis along the Canadian and Caribbean coasts, but with less impact elsewhere. Every earthquake has different characteristics so what is designed in this simulation may be very different when a real earthquake strikes this area in the future.

During the LANTEX21 tsunami simulation event, tsunami warning and tsunami advisory messages will be issued to residents of the eastern coast of the United States, eastern Canada and the Caribbean. As with the CaribeWave’21 endeavor, these flyers should not be made publicly available. However, in some past disaster exercises, such emergency handouts have been shared with the public by mistake. Just last week, a tornado warning alert was accidentally shared with hundreds of thousands of people via emergency cell phone alerts while training there. People should not be disturbed by any test messages; As with CaribeWave’21, LANTEX21 should be marked as exercise and test message only.

Tsunami Warning: A tsunami warning is issued when a tsunami that has the potential to cause large-scale inundation is imminent, anticipated, or occurs. Warnings alert the public to the possibility of serious coastal flooding with strong currents that may last for several hours after the initial arrival. Warnings alert emergency management officials to take action for the entire tsunami risk area. Appropriate measures that local officials must take may include evacuating low-lying coastal areas, and repositioning ships in deeper waters when there is time to do so safely. Warnings may be updated, modified geographically, downgraded, or superseded. To provide the earliest possible warning, first-hand warnings are usually based only on seismic information.

Tsunami Alerts issue a tsunami warning when there is a tsunami that is likely to generate strong currents or dangerous waves for those in or very near the water is imminent, anticipated, or occurs. The threat may persist for several hours after the initial arrival, but significant inundation of the consulted areas is not expected. Appropriate measures that local officials must take may include closing beaches, evacuating harbors and marinas, and repositioning ships in deeper waters when there is time to do so safely. The guidelines are usually updated to continue consulting, expand / contract affected areas, upgrade to warning, or cancel consulting.

This will be the first LANTEX exercise since the global COVID-19 pandemic. The LANTEX20 and PACIFEX20 training, which is a tsunami exercise in the Pacific, was canceled in 2020 due to fears of the pandemic. However, Exercise CaribeWave ’20 continued as scheduled on March 19, 2020. LANTEX and CaribeWave were held in 2018, 2016 and 2016 as well.

For more information about the US tsunami warning system, visit www.tsunami.gov.

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