As terrible as COVID-19, but future pandemics could be even worse unless we act now

If a sufficient number of people choose to protect themselves and their loved ones by being vaccinated, the coronavirus vaccine can end the current pandemic. But for the next few years, we need to protect ourselves from the side effects of a pandemic, collective memory loss.

As public health emergencies recede, societies often quickly forget their experiences and become unable to prepare for future challenges. In the case of a pandemic, such a course would be disastrous.

New infectious diseases are emerging at an accelerating pace and they are spreading faster.

Our federal government is responsible for protecting the United States from future threats. Therefore, President Joe Biden has asked Congress to fund a plan to build on current scientific advances to prevent the threat of new infectious diseases from turning into a pandemic like COVID-19. ..

As Presidential Scientific Advisor, I know what is possible. For the first time in history, we have the opportunity not only to replenish our stockpiles, but also to transform our capabilities. But if you don’t start preparing now for a future pandemic, the window of action will close.

COVID-19 was a catastrophe: With more than 614,000 lives in the United States alone, estimated at over $ 16 trillion, it has a disproportionate impact on vulnerable and marginalized communities.

But unless we take action now, future pandemics could be exacerbated.

It is important to remember that the virus behind COVID-19 is far less deadly than the 1918 flu. This virus also belongs to the well-understood coronavirus. Twenty years of basic scientific research have revealed which proteins are targeted and how they are stabilized, allowing vaccines to be designed within days of learning the genetic code of the virus. Current viruses spin off variants, but their mutation rates are slower than most viruses.

Unfortunately, most of the 26 virus families that infect humans are poorly understood or difficult to control. There is still a lot of work to do.

The development of mRNA vaccine technology was groundbreaking, thanks to more than a decade of visionary basic research. This has reduced the time required to design and test vaccines to less than a year. This is much faster than any previous vaccine. And it was surprisingly effective against COVID-19.

Still, there’s still a lot to do. It remains to be seen how the mRNA vaccine will work against other viruses in the future. And when the next pandemic occurs, we want to be able to respond even faster.

Fortunately, the scientific community has bold plans to prevent future viruses from becoming pandemics.

Here are some of the goals we should shoot:

• Ability to design, test and approve safe and effective vaccines within 100 days of detecting a pandemic threat (for COVID-19, it means May 2020). Manufacture enough doses to supply to the world within 200 days. Speed ​​up your vaccination campaign by replacing sterile injections with skin patches.

• Diagnosis is simple, inexpensive, and can be targeted for medical care by limiting the spread with daily home examinations.

• An early warning system for discovering new biological threats shortly after they emerge and then monitoring them.

• We need to strengthen our public health system, from expanding the workforce to modernizing laboratories and data systems, including ensuring the protection of vulnerable people.

• And since pandemics do not know borders, we need to coordinate our actions with international partners.

These goals are ambitious but feasible. However, only if the work is managed with the seriousness, concentration, and accountability of NASA’s Apollo program, which sent humanity to the moon.

These features don’t just prepare for future pandemics. It also improves public health and medical care for today’s infectious diseases.

Preparing for threats is a central responsibility of the country. That is why our government invests so much in missile defense and counterterrorism. Similarly, countries need to be protected from biological threats, from the ongoing risk of a pandemic to the potential for the intentional use of biological weapons.

Pandemics cause massive death and confusion. From an economic point of view, they are also astronomically expensive. As one would expect from history and current trends, every 20 years a pandemic of the current scale would cost more than $ 500 billion annually. Investing a much smaller amount to avoid this sacrifice is an economic and moral imperative.

The White House will propose a detailed plan this month to ensure that the United States is fully prepared before the next outbreak. It is difficult to imagine higher economic or human benefits for national investment.

Eric Lander is President Biden’s Scientific Advisor and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.