LA COVID surge seems to be reaching its peak, but it’s not good

The summer wave of coronavirus in Los Angeles County, fueled by the highly contagious Omicron subspecies, appears to be climaxing as cases continue to decline, but the big picture is cannot be said to be good.

Deaths from COVID-19 — the end result of substantial infection over weeks — continue to rise and are unlikely to decline any time soon. Cases remain high.

The latest data extends a trend that health officials noted last week when they canceled the implementation of long-looming mask mandates. And while the pandemic has regularly subverted forecasts, the indicators are moving in a promising direction almost across the board.

“We had three cases in the spring and summer, and unfortunately we saw a decline in cases, followed shortly after by an increase, but this decline was more pronounced and the other indicators ,” said the Barbara County Public Health Commissioner. Ferrer said Tuesday.

In the week ending Tuesday, the nation’s most populous county tallied an average of 5,300 new coronavirus cases per day, down 22% from mid-July. This is “the biggest drop in average cases since the winter surge ended,” Ferrer told the county board of supervisors.

LA County is reporting 370 new cases every week for every 100,000 population, down 11% from the previous week. Rates above 100 are considered high.

The downward trend is evident across California, with 287 reported cases per 100,000 residents per week, down 14% from the previous week. The San Francisco Bay Area reported 256 cases per 100,000 residents for the week, down 10% from the previous week. In Orange County, he reported 229 cases in a week for every 100,000 inhabitants, a 19% drop in his week.

LA County’s weekly positive test rate — the percentage of tests performed and reported that confirm coronavirus infections — also fell to 13.9% on Tuesday from 15.1% a week ago, officials said. number of infected report on sitenursing homes and homeless environments are all declining.

Hospitals, which were less stressed than during previous waves of the pandemic, are also starting to see some easing.As of Monday, 1,242 coronavirus-positive patients hospitalized Across the county, it’s down about 3% from a week ago.

The rate of emergency department visits related to people seeking treatment for COVID-related symptoms has also declined.

That’s not to say that the still-widespread community transmission isn’t unaffected.

“Right now, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID is not putting a strain on the overall census of DHS hospitals, but we are very busy in the emergency department and emergency care, and there is an outage among COVID-positive staff. “We continue to experience many cancellations,” said Dr. Nina Park, Principal Deputy Director for Population Health, County Health Services, which operates four public hospitals.

However, she added, “The latest test positive rate and employee testing have declined slightly over the past two weeks, and we hope that trend will continue.”

However, one major metric that has yet to move in the right direction is the number of deaths. Last week, Los Angeles County reported 114 of her COVID-19 deaths. This is his 8% increase from a week ago.

“Death rates always lag behind cases and hospitalizations, so we hope that the recent decline in cases and hospitalizations will bring down the number of deaths in the coming weeks,” Ferrer said. . “every death is heartbreaking“

The number of coronavirus-positive patients in LA County’s intensive care units remains low overall, but has yet to show a sustained downward trend. 2% increase from the week of

One reason for the recent decline in infections is that eight months into the rapidly evolving Omicron era, the coronavirus may have stabilized.

Since late April, three different Omicron subvariants — BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.5 — at times it was the most prevalent version of the coronavirus circulating nationwide.

This is the last thing that is currently suppressing viral infections.According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, BA.5 is Estimate 85.5% of new infections in the week ending Saturday.

Given its dominance and contagiousness, there may be a shortage of people infected with BA.5. And unlike the early stages of this latest wave (which were dominated by his BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 sub-variants that went directly to BA.5), the immediate visible successor on the horizon is It seems not.

Still, there are uncertainties.

At Thursday’s briefing, Ferrer said he had spoken to state officials. BA.5 has run its course and infected fewer people.

The answer was unknown. Some of the models the state shared with us showed a slight increase or a flat rate,” said Ferrer.

Sequencing data that determine the predominant variant for a given week are usually lagging, so “recognizing how much spread BA.5 is causing or contributing to is always lagging behind.” I will,” she added.

“One thing is certain, both here and across the country, everything else is clearly overcrowded. I do not understand.

BA.5 has caused a great deal of concern among public health officials because of its ability Re-infect a person previously infected with the Omicron strain.

It’s too early to say the worst is behind LA County. But if recent trends continue, it means the region has been able to weather the latest wave of the pandemic without resorting to re-enforcing universal indoor mask restrictions mandated by county officials.

Some businesses and institutions have decided to impose their own restrictions, such as canceling large gatherings, moving events outdoors, and enacting mask requirements.

This summer, indoor requirements were introduced for the television and film industry in the UCLA and LA regions. The Television Critics Assn. moved its in-person summer tour to virtual sessions, saying that “shows in production cannot or do not want to burst the COVID bubble” and “producers, writers, talent and publicists , they don’t want to meet face-to-face,” while pointing out the rising case rate.

Many officials say the one-two punch of vaccines and widely available treatments has had the most impact, along with general changes in the nature of the coronavirus itself. Infection is relatively mild Reduced the urgency of strict public health measures.

only county, Alameda, newly enacted In response to the spread of infection this spring, public indoor masks are mandatory, but the measures was short-livedLA County was close to reinstating mask requirements, but saw enough improvement in pandemic indicators last week to decide not to.

Officials said residents should still protect themselves. Wearing a mask in public indoor spaces is highly recommended. BA.5 is still highly contagious, with a group of 50 people having a 60% to 70% chance of infecting someone in that group, Ferrer said.

“While we are relieved that the county’s indicators are steadily improving, infection rates are still rising significantly… which means there is a significant risk of the virus spreading,” Ferrer said. says Mr. “We can continue to slow transmission by being vigilant, testing before gatherings, isolating ourselves from others when infected or sick, and wearing masks indoors. increase.”

Unvaccinated people in LA County are twice as likely to test positive for the coronavirus compared to those who have completed the primary vaccination series, according to figures released Tuesday. are four times more likely to be hospitalized and six times more likely to die than those who complete the first series of vaccines.

“Getting vaccinated and boosted is an important tool for staying as safe as possible, especially when infections are so high,” Ferrer said.