Oxford malaria vaccine rollout could have ‘massive’ impact on sub-Saharan Africa, economists say

Nigeria joined Ghana this week in provisionally approving a new malaria vaccine developed by scientists at the University of Oxford.

Africa’s largest economy, which accounts for 31.3% of the world’s malaria deaths, granted regulatory approval on Tuesday for the deployment of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, according to the World Health Organization. new shot.

Both countries have approved the vaccine for use in children aged 5 to 36 months, the age group most at risk of dying from mosquito-borne diseases.

The Oxford Jenner Institute, which developed the vaccine, estimates that malaria kills about 800,000 people a year. These casualties occur primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, where one in five of his childhood deaths is linked to the disease. In 2020, WHO estimated that there were 241 million clinical cases of malaria resulting in 627,000 deaths, most of them in African children.

“This is the culmination of 30 years of malaria vaccine research at Oxford, involving the design and delivery of a highly effective vaccine that can be delivered at scale to countries most in need,” said the R21/Matrix-M program and Jenner. Announcing Ghana’s regulatory approval on April 13, the Director of the Institute said:

In 2021, WHO approved GSKMoreThe RTS,S malaria vaccine will be rolled out across sub-Saharan Africa, following pilot programs in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi that have tracked 800,000 children since 2019. .

The R21 vaccine was the first vaccine to meet the WHO efficacy target of 75%, but data from late-stage trials are still pending.

The vaccine is manufactured by India’s Serum Institute, which suggests it has the capacity to supply about 200 million doses per year, but the vaccine is reportedly cheap to produce and easy to transport.

“Big boost to long-term growth”

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stressed that malaria is a huge loss to many countries’ economies, especially as many poorer countries are most affected. As such, the disease “maintains a vicious cycle of sickness and poverty,” he said, according to the CDC.

The economic impact of a vaccine will depend on a number of currently unknown factors, including logistical challenges, the ability to provide immunity to older children and adults, and the duration of immunity, but a successful deployment could The economic impact could be huge,” said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Declining child mortality would reduce the population costs of prevention and treatment, and according to various estimates, about 3.8% of household income could be spent on such measures in severely affected countries. Yes, says Jackson.

“It would also reduce the burden on public health costs. It will increase,” Jackson said in a research note on Thursday.

“Reducing child mortality could also lead to a lower fertility rate in the region, which is currently very high. can participate in the labor market, potentially increasing labor force participation, and increasing the labor supply.”

If vaccines provide lasting immunity in older children and adults, malaria-related school and job absenteeism could be reduced, increasing human capital and labor supply, respectively, Jackson suggested. .

“Of course, the supply of labor will not hinder growth in the region. The working-age population is growing rapidly, but this impact, combined with reduced costs of prevention and treatment, will result in a significant boost to GDP. It’s possible,” he added.

Jackson pointed out A study in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygienefound that GDP per capita in malaria-endemic countries grew 1.3% less annually from 1965 to 1990 than in comparable countries. The same survey shows that Jamaica and Taiwan accelerated annual growth by 0.2% to 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. Companions after eradicating malaria.

A recent study published in 2019 models the impact of a vaccine covering 100% of children under the age of 5 in Ghana. That particular vaccine gave her an efficacy rate of 50% against clinical malaria, much lower than R21, and her 20% against mortality from malaria. The study estimated that this level of vaccination coverage and effectiveness would increase GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points per year over a 30-year period.

“In short, vaccines have the potential to be a huge boost to long-term growth in much of Africa,” Jackson concluded.