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An overview of the COW ID-19 “worst case” scenario this winter

 




The government has been urged to make strong preparations for the next two months in case a second wave of COVID-19 may occur this winter.

Ah Report by the Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) modeled a “reasonable worst-case scenario” that could result in 119,000 excess hospital deaths (95% confidence level, 24,500-251,000) between September this year and June 2021. It is outlined.

This number, which does not include deaths in nursing homes, is expected to rise to 1.7 from this September, when the transmission rate (R value) is slightly above half the initial level of transmission experienced in early March 2020. I will.

Report author, Preparing for the challenging winter 2020/21, They did not predict, but the NHS turmoil from the first wave of COVID-19, the backlog of patients in need of treatment, and the potential for an “influenza epidemic” are serious public health problems It warns that it poses a threat.

“The peak of winter coronavirus infections can be more serious than we have ever experienced,” said Stephen Holgate, a respiratory professor at the Southampton NHS Foundation Trust University who chaired the team. ..

Preparation for “Challenging Winter”

AMS has brought together 37 experts in response to a request from Lord Patrick Valence, the government’s chief scientific adviser, to model the expectations of the harsh winter.

In this scenario, the infections increase over time, peaking in hospitalization and death. It will occur in January and February next year and is similar in magnitude to the first wave, coincident with the peak demand for NHS services.

“We are in a relatively calm time right now, and we have the opportunity to prepare for this scenario,” Professor Holgate told a briefing convened by the Science Media Center.

A less serious epidemic scenario with an R-rate of 1.1 or 1.5 from September to July 2021 is provided in the appendix of the report.

An R-rate of 1.1 could lead to 1300 over-deaths (95% confidence level, 200-14,000) and an R-rate of 1.5 could lead to 74,800 over-deaths (95% confidence level, 2700-175,000). There is a possibility.

“In some states in the United States, where the number of cases is currently increasing, we have now seen breeding numbers in the 1.1 range,” said Professor Azra Ghani, chair of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London. When converted to 1.4 inches and translated into the UK, it means “medical services will continue to expand.”

“I expect the government to take action if infections start to increase and more cases are seen,” she said.

However, modeling does not consider recent positive tests DexamethasoneThis suggests that COVID-19 mortality can be significantly reduced.

Recommendation

The report calls for some measures to save lives this winter and prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed.

  • Minimize coronavirus infection in the community and launch a publicity campaign in the fall

  • Reorganize health care and social care staff and facilities to maintain separate COVID-19 and COVID-19 free zones to minimize Nosocomial infection

  • Ensuring proper testing and personal protective equipment (PPE)

  • Establish a comprehensive, near real-time, population-wide monitoring system for monitoring COVID-19 levels

  • Coordinated vaccination precautions against the worst effects of influenza

“There is no vaccine for the coronavirus yet, but there is one influenza“And we have to help as many vulnerable people as possible and as many health workers as possible to get the influenza vaccine,” Holgate said.

He states that upscaling test and trace programs is absolutely essential. “People who have a real coronavirus, as well as the flu and other respiratory viruses, because there are far more infected people who may actually resemble a coronavirus infection.”

The academy also asked Ipsos MORI how to think about possible issues this winter, with the general public, those with “shield” advice, and those with a background of blacks, Asians, and ethnic minorities. I was asked to conduct an online workshop on how I feel.

These reveal a limited level of understanding of what winter means in terms of the revival of COVID-19, and a lack of awareness that rising risk may continue until the end of March next year. It was.

“We are advocating a strong public relations campaign,” said Anne Johnson, professor of epidemiology of infectious diseases at University College London and vice president of AMS. “Everyone needs to understand that COVID-19 has not disappeared. Therefore, everyone is responsible for social distance, wearing face wraps as social norms, good breathing and hand hygiene, and proper hygiene.” The level of heating and ventilation of our house.”

reaction

In response to this report, Dr. Simon Clark, vice president of the Royal College of Childhood Health, said: “Even without the second peak, it’s very difficult to recover lost capacity and handle the huge backlog of canceled procedures. Going this path twice every 12 months It would be a disaster for children and families.

“We know a lot more about the problems we are facing than at the beginning of the first wave. Using months of summer to enhance our services so we can better address them. Is important.

“Unlike recent memory, it can be winter. NHS worker engagement alone is not enough. NHS plans to protect emergency funds, additional capabilities, and services focused on non-COVIDs. Is required.”

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