Health
Mosquitoes Without Borders – Eos
sauce: Geohealth
Scientists often use predictive models to forecast the spread of infectious diseases, and the data that informs these models is typically bounded by geopolitical boundaries such as states or counties.
In the new paper, Moser et al. They argue that using boundaries based on human activities or physical geography, rather than climate or ecological factors, can obscure the relationship between disease and the environment and limit the accuracy of predictions: mosquitoes that carry pathogens such as the West Nile virus, for example, don't care about the geopolitical boundaries across which health data are divided.
In the US, regional disease forecasts: 9 climate regions Regions defined by NOAA. These regions take into account climate factors, but are grouped together along state borders. In this study, the researchers instead 10 Level I ecoregionsAn area or region, as defined by the EPA, with similar ecosystems and comparable environmental resources.
The researchers looked at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data on West Nile fever from 2005 to 2019 and examined correlations between temperature, precipitation, and West Nile fever cases across both NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions.
In some regions, the correlation between climate and virus incidence changed depending on which regional division was used in the analysis. For example, the Southern Semiarid Highlands EPA ecoregion is within the Southwest NOAA climate region, but the former showed a negative correlation between temperature and virus incidence, while the latter showed a positive correlation.
The correlations found within EPA ecoregions often coincided with established knowledge about how environmental dynamics and mosquito ecology affect disease spread. For example, virus rates tend to increase with unusually high temperatures, but extremely high temperatures can have the opposite effect by killing mosquitoes. (NOAA-defined regions tend to include multiple types of ecology, so trends calculated for an entire region may be less accurate for specific locations within that region.) The authors note that their results suggest that using regions divided by ecology (such as EPA ecoregions) rather than geopolitical regions may improve future disease predictions. (Geohealth, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH0010242024)
—Sarah DerouinFollow), science writer
Quote: Derouin, S. (2024), Mosquitoes Without Borders, Eos, 105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EO240288Issued on July 11, 2024.
Text © 2024. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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